SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim has two parts: (1) send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years (by about the end of 2019 or the 2020 launch window); (2) probably another Dragon Mars mission in 2020. The deadline is 31 Dec 2020. True: a Dragon 2 propulsive lander was launched to Mars by the deadline and a second Dragon Mars mission was launched in 2020. Mostly true: both launched, with a small timing slip. Mixed: only one Dragon Mars mission launched by the end of 2020. Mostly false: a Mars mission launched only after 2020. False: no Dragon spacecraft was launched to Mars by the end of 2020, for example because SpaceX cancelled the Red Dragon programme or moved Mars plans to Starship.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 SpaceX informed NASA of slowdown in its commercial Mars program Spaceflight Now · 18 August 2017
“Confirming rumors and suspicions that SpaceX is adjusting its plans to begin dispatching robotic landers to Mars, NASA officials said the commercial space company has informed the agency that it has put its Red Dragon program on the back burner.”
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E2 SpaceX informed NASA of slowdown in its commercial Mars program Spaceflight Now · 18 August 2017
“SpaceX confirmed earlier this year the launch of the experimental lander on a Falcon Heavy rocket had slipped to 2020.”
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E3 SpaceX Red Dragon - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Without propulsive landing, Dragon could not land on Mars, and the Red Dragon program was shelved.”
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E4 SpaceX Red Dragon - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“In July 2017, Elon Musk announced that development would be halted and resources redirected to Starship”
Reasoning
In August 2017, Spaceflight Now reported that NASA officials said SpaceX had put its Red Dragon programme on the back burner, and that the lander's launch had already slipped to 2020 (E1, E2). Wikipedia says that in July 2017 Musk announced that development would stop and resources would move to Starship, and that the programme was shelved (E3, E4). This is positive evidence that the programme was halted and shelved, with resources redirected to Starship [E3][E4], which matches the kind of outcome the criteria name as false. Nothing in the evidence shows any Dragon spacecraft being launched to Mars by 31 December 2020.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020.” (said 16 June 2017). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_ec48bb41f144, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ec48bb41f144
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Elon Musk
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Resolved false
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Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026.
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Resolved false
“We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months.”
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Delivered on time
“We expect to start production in April.”
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Resolved true
“it's time to bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge.”
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Delivered on time
“we expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.”
Tesla expects to wind down and basically stop Model S and X production next quarter.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.