6,750 claims · page 44 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 15 Jan 2020 | Understanding how proteins fold could one day help unlock treatments for a range of diseases. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | The DeepMind, Google Health and Cancer Research UK breast cancer screening study was published in Nature on 2020-01-01. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | Starliner launched on December 20, 2019 and reached orbit, but due to software failures it was in the wrong orbit and lacked fuel to reach the ISS. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | During 2019 Waymo started operating what Brooks called a 'taxi service' in Chandler, Arizona, with no human driver in the vehicles. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | Neither Boeing nor SpaceX achieved crewed capsule flight in 2019, after major failures with their systems. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | A joint DeepMind, Google Health and Cancer Research UK study showed AI can spot breast cancer in screening mammograms more accurately than experts. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | On 20 April 2019 a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule exploded during a ground test. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | The December 2019 Starliner flight was meant to be the final unmanned test, planned to dock with the ISS and then soft-land on the ground. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | On 1 January 2018 Rodney Brooks published predictions about self driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2020 | Both Boeing and SpaceX will eventually achieve crewed capsule flight. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | The most important drivers of the market's P/E ratio are profit margins and current inflation. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | GMO calculated that a return to the old price trend plus a typical overrun in extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | The S&P is in the top 10% of historical P/E ratios on prior earnings while the U.S. economy is in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably the worst 1%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | Grantham's bet was that over the next few quarters from 2020, earnings and profit margins would be crushed. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | The model's forecast of future fair P/E 10 assumes market profitability drops 30% and inflation and GDP volatility rise to 2008-like levels. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | In Grantham's opinion, the U.S. trend GDP growth rate has fallen from over 3% a year to at best 1.5%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | Grantham has been spending twice his usual total research time on the interactions between the virus, the economy and markets. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 31 Dec 2019 | Virtual reality will be Facebook's next big act. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 31 Dec 2019 | Roughly two years of monetizing WhatsApp at Facebook's ARPU would yield about $19B in revenue, the amount Facebook paid for WhatsApp. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 31 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Nassim Taleb | Promise | 31 Dec 2019 | Taleb is running Twitter symposia on topics in Principia Politica and will integrate the comments into the text. Nassim Taleb · Promise · 31 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Dec 2019 | A Minsky Moment (financial crisis) is unlikely in China; instead its growth will slow steadily. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 30 Dec 2019 | Taleb's lecture "From Ponzi to Localism" angered, among others, Riad Salameh and Lebanese bankers. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 30 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 30 Dec 2019 | In 2019 Taleb gave a lecture in Lebanese, "From Ponzi to Localism", at USJ, broadcast on Lebanese TV during the riots. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 30 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 30 Dec 2019 | Startup cities will be a major trend of the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 29 Dec 2019 | It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top of the wealth distribution. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | 29 Dec 2019 | The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 29 Dec 2019 | Subscription-funded media will increase polarization more than ad-supported media does. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 29 Dec 2019 | The richest 1% of people in 2019 are not quite the same individuals as the richest 1% of 2009. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 28 Dec 2019 | Taleb has written five articles for the New York Times in the past, under pressure from the publisher. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 28 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 28 Dec 2019 | Private property will become private keys, i.e. ownership will be held via cryptographic keys. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 27 Dec 2019 | Pinker took on an assignment from the Financial Times to write about what to expect from the 2020s for its end-of-year issue. Steven Pinker · Factual · 27 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 27 Dec 2019 | Virtual reality will allow people to opt out of modern society and return to previous time periods. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 27 Dec 2019 | The latest issue of CIRSD's Horizons magazine includes Roubini's article "The Specter of Deglobalization and the Thucydides Trap". Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 27 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 26 Dec 2019 | The Oculus Quest VR headset has been a sleeper hit commercially. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 26 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Dec 2019 | Enlightenment ideals are rising in the Islamic world, riding a six-decade global wave of liberal values documented by the World Values Survey. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Dec 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | 26 Dec 2019 | Preliminary entropy-based genetic maps might change how distances between populations and rates of inbreeding are viewed. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 26 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 25 Dec 2019 | During 2019 overwhelming DNA evidence emerged that Southern Levantines had DNA indistinguishable from that of Imperial Romans. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 25 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 25 Dec 2019 | A website with a .eth or other crypto domain can now hold a crypto wallet as well as metadata. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 24 Dec 2019 | PostgreSQL natively indexes JSON data via the JSONB type. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 24 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 24 Dec 2019 | As advertising load rises, customer satisfaction falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 24 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 24 Dec 2019 | Elon Musk will get humanity to Mars. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 24 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 24 Dec 2019 | The Chinese prefer Donald Trump to be re-elected US president because he is protectionist and unilateralist. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 24 Dec 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 24 Dec 2019 | Over time Trump will damage US alliances and weaken US soft and hard power, making China stronger. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 24 Dec 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen said he met her (identified in the resolution criteria as the author Gail Hareven) in 2019. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen does not write notes to remind himself of things. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen emails himself reminders about one thing every three days or so and remembers the rest. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen expected China to have an excess-capacity debt crisis, and it did not happen. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen said the activity he was discussing is not an income earner. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen sends himself an email when he needs to remind himself of something. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Public health research and evidence-based harm reduction policies save tens of thousands of lives every year. Steven Pinker · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Steven Pinker wrote a guest post titled 'NIPS vs. NeurIPS' on Scott Aaronson's blog Shtetl-Optimized. Steven Pinker · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen never sends text messages. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) stock is performing better than the rest of its industry group as of 2019-12-23. Jim Cramer · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Bloomberg's first tier of readers are those who subscribe to its terminals. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Most podcasts do not offer a transcript. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Bitcoin's developments surprised Tyler Cowen multiple times. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen has two offices, one in Arlington and one in Fairfax, and used to have three. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Prediction | 23 Dec 2019 | The world seems to have turned a corner on coal, so the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario may be avoided. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 23 Dec 2019 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Jim Cramer wrote a piece on Boeing for RealMoney, due to be published shortly after 2019-12-23. Jim Cramer · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | The text in the linked post came verbatim from Taleb's Principia Politica. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen first went to China about 30 years before 2019 and has been there many times since. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen responds to all his emails right away. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Gordon Tullock dictated his writing using a tape recorder, not software, and then had someone type it out. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 22 Dec 2019 | A major theme of Pinker's two books on progress is that modernity replaces ties of clan and tribe with individual freedom and institutionalized social order. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 22 Dec 2019 | Levantine Arabic is not a dialect of Classical Arabic (Fus7a), according to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 22 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 22 Dec 2019 | A video circulating in December 2019 appears to have been made with conventional video editing tools rather than neural networks, and appears fake. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 22 Dec 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 22 Dec 2019 | Good telemedicine giving 3-5 medical opinions within minutes will allow testing of inter-rater agreement among physicians using Fleiss' kappa or a similar metric. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 21 Dec 2019 | Sam Mehr, first author of a music paper co-authored by Pinker, received the EHBEA New Investigator Award. Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable | Steven Pinker | Factual | 21 Dec 2019 | Steven Pinker published a new photo gallery of Sweden featuring aurora borealis, frozen rivers and waterfalls, and 200-year-old preserved homes and stores. Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Factual | 21 Dec 2019 | Jim Cramer previously said Tesla is a buy at much lower price levels. Jim Cramer · Factual · 21 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 21 Dec 2019 | The plural of Prius is Priuses, because names take regular plurals, as in the Childs, the Manns and the Maple Leafs. Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Own records only | Jim Cramer | Factual | 20 Dec 2019 | Jim Cramer owns no Eli Lilly stock. Jim Cramer · Factual · 20 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 8 Dec 2019 | As of 8 December 2019, 99.9% of cryptocurrencies have lost 99% of their value since their peak. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 8 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 27 Nov 2019 | As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 27 Nov 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 26 Nov 2019 | As of late November 2019, Bitcoin is down 65% from its peak and the other top 10 cryptocurrencies are down 80% from their peaks. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 26 Nov 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 20 Nov 2019 | In November 2019 there is a growing disconnect between mediocre global economic growth with rising risks and frothy, exuberant financial markets. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 20 Nov 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Nov 2019 | Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Asked whether "they" understand the "no free lunch" point, Marcus said "about 75 percent" and "They do not yet"; the quote does not say who "they" are or what the 75 percent measures. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Not yet due | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Nov 2019 | Gary Marcus guessed that artificial general intelligence would arrive somewhere between 20 and 100 years from 2019, maybe closer to 50, and said this was a wide confidence interval. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Nov 2019 | Marcus argues that AI will not proceed until the field allows some "neatness", meaning some innate structure (nativism), in its systems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Gary Marcus wrote a book called The Birth of the Mind about how a small number of genes builds a complex brain. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Cyc is not an end-to-end system. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Most of the current best AI systems fundamentally just learn contingencies rather than general abstract concepts that humans can apply quickly. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | The best-selling domestic robot of all time is still the Roomba, which does not manipulate objects. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | Technology |
| Mixed | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Nov 2019 | The real action in AI will be in finding theoretically sound ways of combining symbolic and deep learning traditions. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | AlphaGo is a hybrid system that uses deep learning for pattern recognition and Monte Carlo tree search, a symbolic operation, to search possibilities. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2019 | As of November 2019, no application of blockchain, defined as a public, decentralized, permission-less, trustless ledger, works or is widely used despite billions spent on it over a decade. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | A decade before 2019, almost all of the major internet platforms were American. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook is establishing an independent Oversight Board for people to appeal its content decisions. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook works with independent fact checkers to stop viral hoaxes from spreading. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Almost half the world's population now has a voice through the internet. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook will appoint Oversight Board members with diverse views and backgrounds who each hold free expression as their paramount value. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Laws and regulations around the world that undermine free expression and human rights are increasing. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | China is building its own internet focused on different values and is exporting that vision to other countries. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Technology |
“Crypto-Apocalypse: Ethereum down 90% from the peak, in free fall and now close to the 2018 low.”
Nouriel Roubini, economist, posting on X 27 November 2019 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2019-11-27 (X)
As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge against ETH/USD prices on 27 Nov 2019. Peak = the all-time high of roughly January 2018. The 2018 low = the lowest ETH price in 2018, around December 2018. True: ETH's 27 Nov 2019 price was about 90% below the peak (a drawdown of roughly 87–93%) and close to the 2018 low (within about 25–30% above it). Mostly true: the drawdown was about 85–87%, or the price was somewhat further from the 2018 low, but both parts still broadly hold. Mixed: only one of the two parts holds (for example, a drawdown of about 90% but the price far above the 2018 low). Mostly false: the drawdown was well under 85% (for example 75–85%) and the price was not close to the 2018 low. False: the drawdown was under about 75%, or the price was nowhere near the 2018 low. The rhetorical 'free fall' wording is not tested beyond a recent sharp decline.
Evidence
- Shorting Ethereum before Q4 2019 would’ve been a good idea The Next Web (TNW) · 22 January 2020
“Ethereum plummeted to $142 on November 24, recovering somewhat and hitting $150 on November 30.”
- Ethereum (ETH) Market History: Price, ATH & Liquidations cryptocurrencyhistory.com · 3 November 2026
“In 2018, it opened at 733.01 and closed at 131.45, with a yearly high of 1440.0 and a yearly low of 81.79.”
- Ethereum (ETH) Market History: Price, ATH & Liquidations cryptocurrencyhistory.com · 3 November 2026
“Ethereum's deepest drawdown was -94.0%, from 2018-01-13 to its trough on 2018-12-15.”
Reasoning
E1 says ETH fell to $142 on 24 November 2019 and recovered to $150 by 30 November, so the price on 27 November was probably around $142–150. E2 gives ETH's 2018 high as $1,440 and its 2018 low as $81.79, and E3 dates these to January and December 2018. A price of about $142–150 is roughly 90% below the $1,440 peak, so the drawdown part of the claim holds. But that price is about 74–83% above the 2018 low, far beyond the "close to the low" range in the criteria (within about 25–30% above it), so only one of the two parts holds.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low.” (said 27 November 2019). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_e50dc53ed4e2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e50dc53ed4e2
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.