Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

73 claims

73 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 23 Oct 2026 Jocelyn Benson's lead in Michigan gubernatorial polls is about 4.2 points larger than Abdul El-Sayed's lead in the Michigan Senate polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he encouraged the person under discussion to write his book and supported him financially when he ran for the Senate in 2022. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Rodney Brooks Factual 29 Apr 2026 The Trump administration's DOJ has said that Jan 6th rioters who threatened to hang Mike Pence should be pardoned. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 Other
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 29 Apr 2026 The Trump administration's DOJ says James Comey should be prosecuted over a photograph of sea shells spelling "8647". Rodney Brooks · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 Other
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Apr 2026 JD Vance campaigned for Viktor Orban in the Hungarian elections the week before 12 April 2026, and Orban lost the election. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Apr 2026 Other
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 12 Apr 2026 A Putin ally suffered a major defeat in the election after 16 years in power. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 12 Apr 2026 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 4 Mar 2026 The Trump administration is already taking steps toward selling or pricing immigration access, though at too high a price. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 4 Mar 2026 Most Americans outside border areas do not feel they are losing their country, even if they think immigration is too high. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 The two special elections held in early April 2025 were in extremely Republican-leaning, rural Florida districts. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 Congress has the power to pass a law stopping President Trump's tariffs. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Dario Amodei has supported export controls on chips for several years, before DeepSeek's model came out. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said that over the past 30 years, US leaders have dealt with the recurring problem he was describing by completely ignoring it. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 30 Dec 2024 The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Tom Tugendhat did not become leader of the UK Conservative Party. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 9 Oct 2024 John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, but Barack Obama won in a landslide. Nate Silver · Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 9 Oct 2024 Silver said that, if anything, there was too little panic among Democrats about 2016, and that they were dismissive of polls showing a tightening race late in the campaign and a tenuous Hillary Clinton lead in the Electoral College. Nate Silver · Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 9 Oct 2024 Since Nate Silver began covering elections in 2008, Democrats have been prone to bouts of panic about the state of the horse race. Nate Silver · Factual · 9 Oct 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 27 Aug 2024 The Hunter Biden story was censored on the internet. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 27 Aug 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 13 Aug 2024 Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were. Nate Silver · Prediction · 13 Aug 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Jun 2024 The US is an outlier on abortion laws, as the rest of the world is expanding access. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Jun 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 9 Jun 2024 Narendra Modi won a third term as Prime Minister of India. Bill Gates · Factual · 9 Jun 2024 Other
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Nate Silver Factual 6 Jun 2022 Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Nate Silver · Factual · 6 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 21 Dec 2020 Erdogan threatened legal action against someone who called him a dictator. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 21 Dec 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Factual 5 Sep 2020 Khosla said Fox News had confirmed reporting that contradicted Donald Trump's statements in the preceding day or so. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 5 Sep 2020 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 25 Sep 2019 Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 23 Sep 2019 Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22. Nate Silver · Factual · 23 Sep 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 23 Sep 2019 Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 2017 Most Trump voters voted for him for reasons other than his promise of a Muslim ban. Sam Altman · Factual · 2017 Other
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 2017 President Trump repeatedly invoked unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, such as 3 million illegal votes, in his first week in office. Sam Altman · Factual · 2017 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 The two scientific polls after the second 2016 presidential debate showed a Clinton win, but a more marginal one than after the first debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said that all the scientific polls after the first 2016 presidential debate showed Clinton had won by a pretty emphatic margin. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mixed Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Thiel does not agree with every plan in the Republican Party's platform. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Neither Peter Thiel nor Donald Trump is a politician. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2016 FiveThirtyEight's polls-only model gives Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning and its polls-plus model gives her 83 percent. Nate Silver · Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual 3 Dec 2012 Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
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Nate Silver

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Prediction Other Political

“If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin)

If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

A strongly hedged, conditional prediction about earliest timing. 'Presumptive nominee' means a candidate whose remaining major rivals have withdrawn, or who has a projected majority of pledged delegates, as reported by AP or major outlets. If the conditions held (Trump did well, e.g. won or clearly led in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden had no disqualifying snafu): True if both Trump and Biden became presumptive nominees by 2024-02-29. Mostly false if one or both became presumptive only after February, however soon after. False if the conditions held but the nominations stayed seriously contested well beyond early spring. If only one of them became presumptive by end of February, that is mostly false. If the conditions did not hold, the conditional was not tested; judges should mark it unresolvable rather than true or false.

Evidence

  1. Biden, Trump both become parties’ presumptive nominees KTVU · 12 March 2024
    “President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump have now unofficially clinched their respective party’s nomination after securing enough delegates Tuesday night.”
  2. 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “Trump became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in American history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in the same election cycle.”
  3. 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election.”
  4. 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “Despite calls to drop out, Haley declined to withdraw from the race after the primary.”

Reasoning

The condition was met: Trump won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which was held on January 23, 2024 (E2, E3). The evidence shows no snafu for Biden. However, Haley declined to withdraw after New Hampshire (E4). A report dated March 12, 2024 says Biden and Trump had "now" clinched their nominations by securing enough delegates that night (E1), so both became presumptive nominees after February rather than by February 29. Under the criteria, becoming presumptive soon after February counts as mostly false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_e22962bb7fc7, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e22962bb7fc7

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.