2,653 claims · page 18 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 25 Sep 2019 | Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 23 Sep 2019 | Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22. Nate Silver · Factual · 23 Sep 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 23 Sep 2019 | Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Driverless cars that are not actually reliable can be easily fooled. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Biological cognition involves many different mechanisms, working on different principles, that reinforce and counter-balance each other. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Deep learning does more than linear regression but is a more sophisticated form of statistical correlation. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 20 Sep 2019 | Bad AI is leading to fatalities and undermining democracy. Gary Marcus · Factual · 20 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 20 Sep 2019 | Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 20 Aug 2019 | Human drivers perform the three-point turns that turn the vehicles around at the end of the route each time. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 20 Aug 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 20 Aug 2019 | Human drivers also operate the turn signals on the vehicles. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 20 Aug 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | As of August 2019, long-term interest rates were falling faster than short-term rates, inverting the yield curve. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The People's Bank of China did not push the yuan down in August 2019. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The Trump administration cut corporate taxes, which pushed stock prices up. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | As of August 2019, the world largely looked to Dalio to be leveraged long, with a lot of borrowing to buy assets and companies. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 16 Aug 2019 | The US and China have a debtor-creditor relationship, not just a trade relationship. Ray Dalio · Factual · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 16 Aug 2019 | Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Jul 2019 | Patrick Winston of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-19). Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Jul 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Evidence strikingly shows moral hazard was actually pretty weak, as the banks that lost the most were simply over-confident. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen's book Markets and Cultural Voices was published about 15 years before 2019. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Employer monopsony power over workers is considerably weaker when workers live in populated areas. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Health care aside, the deadweight loss in question is not that large. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | On average, people are more likely to defraud others when not working within a large organized business. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Measured consumer surplus from Facebook is quite high. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen said he thinks there is some good evidence that social media are making a significant subset of teenage girls more miserable. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Israel is the only country other than the US with anything even vaguely like American venture capital. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Productivity growth has slowed down. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | For-profit and nonprofit hospitals are statistically hard to tell apart in what they do, how they act and what they charge. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Travel experienced about 40 years of stagnation, followed by more advances in the last 5 years. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | In the 2008 bank bailouts, mainly bondholders rather than equity holders were bailed out. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | Tyler Cowen uses his blog as his main method of social networking. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 18 Jul 2019 | The United States is by far the world's leading center of medical innovation. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 15 Jul 2019 | Around 2017, autonomous vehicle promises were made for deployment during 2019 through 2022. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 15 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 13 Jul 2019 | Fernando Corbato developed Multics, which led to Unix, which led to Linux. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 13 Jul 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 13 Jul 2019 | Fernando Corbato of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-13). Rodney Brooks · Factual · 13 Jul 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jun 2019 | Jumping spiders can count to three, with categories for one prey, two preys and many preys. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 25 Jun 2019 | Nick Clegg, Facebook's VP of global affairs and communications, wrote an op-ed about the future of the Internet. Yann LeCun · Factual · 25 Jun 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 21 Jun 2019 | A new XLM model outperforms BERT on all GLUE tasks when trained on the same data. Yann LeCun · Factual · 21 Jun 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 20 Jun 2019 | Microsoft introduced new tools and features for educators on 2019-06-20. Satya Nadella · Factual · 20 Jun 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 13 Jun 2019 | Vinod Khosla specifically said earlier that we would have music personalized to each person. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 13 Jun 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 10 Jun 2019 | PyTorch Hub, a repository offering pretrained models such as ResNet, BERT and GPT, was announced on 2019-06-10. Yann LeCun · Factual · 10 Jun 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 8 Jun 2019 | Malaria has been eliminated from Algeria and Argentina. Bill Gates · Factual · 8 Jun 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 3 Jun 2019 | The Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence's published AI ethics guidelines mention the protection of individual privacy. Yann LeCun · Factual · 3 Jun 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 29 May 2019 | Bill Gates recently sat down for a conversation with author Jared Diamond. Bill Gates · Factual · 29 May 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 29 May 2019 | Microsoft aims to build datacenters in Sweden that will be among the most sustainable in the world. Satya Nadella · Promise · 29 May 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 20 May 2019 | Wind and solar power generation is expanding at record rates, so more people than ever get their electricity from renewable sources. Bill Gates · Factual · 20 May 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 17 May 2019 | Nearly every job created since the last recession has gone to someone with a post-high school education. Bill Gates · Factual · 17 May 2019 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 17 May 2019 | Microsoft introduced Minecraft Earth, built using technology from Azure to PlayFab. Satya Nadella · Factual · 17 May 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 16 May 2019 | Rubrik is younger than Cohesity and is growing much faster than Cohesity. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 16 May 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 16 May 2019 | More than 1 billion people around the world have disabilities. Satya Nadella · Factual · 16 May 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 13 May 2019 | The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 13 May 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 13 May 2019 | US consumers are not bearing the full burden of the tariffs in the US-China trade war. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 13 May 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 May 2019 | Melinda Gates asked Bill Gates to introduce her at her Moment of Lift book tour stop in Seattle on 2019-05-10. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 May 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 30 Apr 2019 | Microsoft is partnering with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to bring the Xbox Adaptive Controller to veterans with limited mobility. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 30 Apr 2019 | Most people are not getting access to high-quality behavioral health support. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 30 Apr 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 29 Apr 2019 | Satya Nadella appeared at Dell Tech World with Michael Dell and Pat Gelsinger. Satya Nadella · Factual · 29 Apr 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Apr 2019 | Amazon has 10 Amazon Go stores in Chicago, San Francisco and Seattle. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Apr 2019 | Amazon spent several years building Amazon Aurora, a managed MySQL and PostgreSQL-compatible database with durability and availability equal to or better than commercial engines at one-tenth the cost. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Apr 2019 | AWS is a business with a $30 billion annual run rate as of early 2019 and is growing fast. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Apr 2019 | Amazon represents a low single-digit percentage of the retail market, and much larger retailers exist in every country where it operates. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Apr 2019 | Amazon's first-party business grew at a compound annual rate of 25% from 1999 to 2018, from $1.6 billion to $117 billion. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 9 Apr 2019 | Microsoft is teaming up with Mastercard, Workday and the public sector to support the next generation of cybersecurity leaders. Satya Nadella · Factual · 9 Apr 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | Apr 2019 | Third-party sellers' share of physical gross merchandise sales on Amazon has grown from 3% of the total to 58%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | Apr 2019 | Amazon began developing the Fire phone and the Echo around the same time. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | Apr 2019 | Third-party sales on Amazon grew from $0.1 billion to $160 billion over the period discussed, a compound annual growth rate of 52%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | Apr 2019 | Since the first-generation Echo, customers have purchased more than 100 million Alexa-enabled devices. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | Apr 2019 | Amazon represents a low single-digit percentage of the global retail market, with much larger retailers in every country where it operates. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Mar 2019 | Computer architects are building special-purpose chips for runtime use of trained neural networks to compensate for power and performance limits. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Mar 2019 | The push to make everything learnable is raising the cost of AI beyond what individuals or even large university departments can afford. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Mar 2019 | Moore's Law is slowing, and some computer architects report the doubling time of computation on a single chip moving from one year to twenty years. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 19 Mar 2019 | Today's machine learning data sets can contain billions of examples, whereas a human may need only a handful to learn the same thing. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 8 Mar 2019 | Money donated to Grameen America is repeatedly lent and repaid, so each $1 donated results in roughly $12 lent to people over 10 years. Ray Dalio · Factual · 8 Mar 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 16 Feb 2019 | The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four. Gary Marcus · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 16 Feb 2019 | There has been a massive surge in the availability of cheap seed funding for startups. Sam Altman · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 14 Feb 2019 | OpenAI has produced an unsupervised language model that can do many tasks. Sam Altman · Factual · 14 Feb 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 7 Feb 2019 | Jeff Bezos has written a post about developments with the National Enquirer and its parent company, AMI. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 7 Feb 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 29 Jan 2019 | Y Combinator is hosting a new conference (announced January 2019). Sam Altman · Factual · 29 Jan 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly false | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Jan 2019 | Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Jan 2019 | Sam Altman has observed thousands of founders and thought a lot about what it takes to make a huge amount of money or create something important. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 | Field building and careers |
| Delivered on time | Scott Alexander | Promise | 22 Jan 2019 | Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019. Scott Alexander · Promise · 22 Jan 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 22 Jan 2019 | Scott Alexander made predictions in February 2018 for the next five years. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 22 Jan 2019 | Cryptocurrency crashed during 2018, after Bitcoin was around $15,000 when Scott Alexander made his 2018 predictions. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Gary Marcus | Factual | 17 Jan 2019 | According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 | Other |
| Mostly false | Gary Marcus | Factual | 17 Jan 2019 | A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Jan 2019 | Sam Altman spoke with Vinod Khosla in an interview or conversation published in January 2019. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Jan 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 5 Jan 2019 | By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 5 Jan 2019 | By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 5 Jan 2019 | Sam Altman made a bet almost four years before January 2019. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Jan 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2 Jan 2019 | Mike George, former Alexa VP and long-time Amazon employee, has agreed to lead the Day 1 Academies Fund. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Jan 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 2 Jan 2019 | Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2 Jan 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | In Hayek's account, knowledge is consolidated via prices and arbitrageurs, who trade products, services and financial securities, not binary bets. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 2019 | In computer vision, the trend is to apply ConvNets to an entire image to detect, segment and recognize objects of any size at any location. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | Morgan Stanley correctly predicted the financial crisis but lost $10 billion on its hedge. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | Value at Risk is not a coherent risk measure because it violates subadditivity. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) satisfies the coherence (subadditivity) bound. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | Financial regulators compute the recovery rate as the unconditional expected value of collateral, without conditioning on the default event. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | XIV, a volatility-linked exchange traded note, went bust in February 2018 after a sudden jump in volatility, while having been able to "predict" volatility correctly. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2019 | For a continuous random variable X with CDF F_X, the variable U = F_X(X) is uniform between 0 and 1 absent additional information. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 2019 | The ConvNet architecture was loosely inspired by the ventral pathway in the visual cortex. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 | AI capabilities |
“Patrick Winston of MIT has passed away.”
Rodney Brooks, writing on X 19 July 2019 Post by @rodneyabrooks on X, 2019-07-19 (X)
Patrick Winston of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-19).
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: an MIT announcement, an obituary or reliable news reports confirm that Patrick Winston of MIT died on or shortly before 19 July 2019. Mostly true: his death is confirmed, but a minor detail is off (for example the date of death was a few days earlier than the report). False: evidence shows Patrick Winston was alive on 19 July 2019.
Evidence
- Professor Patrick Winston, former director of MIT’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, dies at 76 MIT News · 19 July 2019
“Patrick Winston, a beloved professor and computer scientist at MIT, died on July 19 at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. He was 76.”
- Professor Patrick Winston dies at 76 | The Tech The Tech (MIT student newspaper) · 23 July 2019
“Patrick Winston ’65, Ford professor of artificial intelligence and computer science, died July 19 at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston at the age of 76.”
Reasoning
MIT News published an obituary on 2019-07-19 saying Patrick Winston died on July 19, aged 76 (E1). The Tech, MIT's student newspaper, gives the same date (E2). That matches the claim made on 2019-07-19 that he had died.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “Patrick Winston of MIT has died (reported 2019-07-19).” (said 19 July 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_db44a2fbf79c, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_db44a2fbf79c
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.