Claims

Prediction · Technology

“Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from last year's absurdly high valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of so-called distributed-ledger technologies should be next.”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, column author · 15 October 2018 · The Big Blockchain Lie (Project Syndicate)

Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

What would count as true or false

Judge over about two years after the claim (to 2020-10-15). The test is whether the hype or 'techno-utopian mystique' around blockchain and distributed-ledger technology broadly deflated after the 2018 crypto crash. TRUE: there is clear evidence that the enthusiasm deflated broadly. Examples: blockchain placed in the 'trough of disillusionment' (for example by Gartner), venture and corporate investment in blockchain falling sharply, prominent enterprise DLT projects or consortia abandoned or scaled back, and coverage describing the blockchain hype as over. No renewed surge of DLT enthusiasm should occur within the window. MOSTLY TRUE: most of these indicators show deflation, with minor exceptions. MIXED: enterprise or 'blockchain not Bitcoin' hype faded, but new waves of DLT enthusiasm (for example DeFi, or major central bank or big-tech ledger projects) grew strongly within the window. MOSTLY FALSE: some projects failed, but overall investment and enthusiasm in DLT held steady or grew. FALSE: blockchain investment, adoption announcements and enthusiasm clearly rose to new highs within the window.

Evidence

1. Leveraging blockchain to transform industry ATB Financial · 19 December 2019

   “The Gartner Inc. 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies indicates blockchain is sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment.”

2. Review: Blockchain Investment Trends to Watch CB Insights · 17 August 2020

   “VC investment into the space has seriously declined in 2019. At current run rates, 2019 will only see $1.6B invested across 454 deals, a significant decline from the $4.1B invested in blockchain last year.”

3. Decoding the Slowdown in Blockchain Startups Boston Consulting Group · 21 August 2020

   “After rising at an annual rate of 45% from 2013 through 2017—and by 163% in 2017 alone—the number of blockchain company launches fell by 34% in 2018.”

4. The DeFi Chronicles of 2020: rapid growth, challenges, and institutional headwinds | ForkLog ForkLog · 3 January 2021

   “Growth accelerated notably in June when Compound launched its governance token COMP.”

Reasoning

E1 cites Gartner's 2019 Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, which describes blockchain as sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment. E2 reports that blockchain VC investment fell from $4.1B in 2018 to a projected $1.6B in 2019, and E3 reports that blockchain company launches fell 34% in 2018. Together these show that the general blockchain hype deflated. However, E4 reports that DeFi growth accelerated notably in June 2020 after Compound launched its COMP governance token, within the window, and describes 2020 as a year of rapid DeFi growth [E4]. This matches the criteria's MIXED case: the broader hype faded, but a new wave of DLT enthusiasm grew within the window.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next.” (said 15 October 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_d477ab12f0ef, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d477ab12f0ef