Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 278 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Studies counting bodies show homicide rates among prehistoric peoples were orders of magnitude higher than in modern societies, even including two world wars. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 They have always been enraged by the claim that limitations on human nature might constrain our social arrangements. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 A major tenet of evolutionary psychology is that relationships with kin differ greatly from relationships with non-relatives. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Social change can take place, even with a fixed human nature, because the mind is a complex system of many parts. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Twins separated at birth are no more different in intelligence and personality than twins raised together; growing up together does not make people more similar in the long run. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Most intellectuals today have a phobia of any explanation of the mind that invokes genetics. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The only explanation, other than creationism, is that those systems evolved because they allowed our ancestors to survive and reproduce… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 One reason for the canonization of artists is a quirk of our moral sense. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 But when it comes to how organisms deal with one another, common sense is no substitute for good evolutionary theory. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 It's harder to find the truth if certain factual hypotheses are third rails—touch them and die. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The fear is misplaced for two reasons. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The brain obviously has a great deal of what neuroscientists call plasticity—that's what allows us to learn. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Adopted siblings who grow up in the same house but share no genes show no correlation in personality or intelligence, no more than random strangers. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The most I can do is suggest ways in which the sciences of mind might pipe in with insights that could complement those of scholars in the… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 City planners left out ornamentation, human scale, green space, gardens and comfortable social meeting places because their theory of human nature omitted aesthetic and social needs. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Our fatal weakness for attractive partners can be explained in terms of our evolutionary history, not our personal calculations of… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The second is "the noble savage": that evil motives are not inherent to people but come from corrupting social institutions. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 I think that Sulloway has captured something about the dynamics among siblings within the family. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The two great ideologically driven genocides of the 20th century came from theories of human nature that were diametrically opposed, one of them carried out in the name of Marxism. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The default setting of our moral sense may be to sympathize only with members of our clan or village. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Pinker said he has been interested in behavioral genetics since reading about Tom Bouchard and David Lykken's work in Science in the late 1980s, and that Judy Harris made him think through the implications of that work. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Identical twins separated at birth show striking similarities in their talents and tastes. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The great appeal of the doctrine that the mind is a blank slate is the simple mathematical fact that zero equals zero. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Socialization is how you become a functioning person in a society—speak the language, win friends, hold a job, wear the accepted kinds of… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Behavioral genetics has found that at least half of the variation in personality and intelligence in a society comes from genetic differences. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The part of personality not explained by genes is not explained by the family environment either. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 I think that there is a quasi-religious theory of human nature that is prevalent among pundits and intellectuals, which includes both… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The connections Pinker draws in his new book between human nature and political systems were prefigured in Enlightenment debates and in the framing of the American Constitution. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Likewise, it can't be a coincidence that the brain compares the images from the two eyeballs and uses that information to compute depth. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Roger was also a gifted writer, with a great wit and panache. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Differences in upbringing such as family type, day care versus home, only-child status or conception method leave no lasting mark on personality, given a standard peer group. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 There's no reason that we should give up that lever on people's behavior—namely, the inhibition systems of the brain—just because we're… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 As for Judy Harris, I am completely persuaded by her argument that socialization takes place in the peer group rather than in the family. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Neuroscience has shown that our thoughts, feelings, urges and consciousness depend completely on the physiological activity of the brain. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 There's a sense in which all psychology is evolutionary. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Yes, evolution (the ultimate explanation for our minds) is a short-sighted selfish process in which genes are selected for their ability to… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Evolutionary psychology is taking that mindset and applying it to more emotionally charged aspects of behavior, such as sexuality… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 All these suggest that what we don't like about ourselves can't just be blamed on the institutions of a particular society. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 In developmental psychology, the possibility that parent-child correlations reflect shared genes is in most cases taboo and rarely mentioned or tested. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Western democracies have seen social improvement, including the end of slavery, torture, blood feuds, despotism and the ownership of women. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 The blank slate has been undermined by a number of discoveries. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 I think there's something to that, but it's a special case of what might be an enormous role for chance in the shaping of who we are. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The newest brain research shows many properties of the brain are genetically organized and do not depend on sensory input. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Personality and socialization aren't the same thing. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Children of culturally inept immigrants do fine if they can learn the ropes from native-born peers. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Children almost always end up with the accent of their peers, never their parents. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 If in simple organisms like worms and flies can turn out differently for capricious and unpredictable reasons, then surely chance plays an… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Another reason that human nature doesn't rule out social progress is that many features of human nature have free parameters. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 But I'm not convinced that these strategies shape their personalities outside the family. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Pinker said that until studies such as those linking talkative parents to children's language skills are replicated with adopted children, it is unknown whether the correlations reflect the effects of parenting, shared genes, or a mixture. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 If there's a threat to responsibility it doesn't come from biological determinism but from any determinism, including childhood upbringing… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Selfish genes don't necessarily build a selfish organization. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Evidence shows traits such as psychopathy, violent tendencies, low conscientiousness and an antagonistic personality are largely heritable. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Both of them, to their great credit, have addressed what may be the most important puzzle in the history of psychology. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Studies of fruit flies and roundworms show that much of development is a matter of chance. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Not researched Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 James Madison argued that checks and balances in a political system let one person's ambition counteract another's. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 There has to be innate circuitry that does the learning, that creates the culture, that acquires the culture, and that responds to… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 It's a moral claim that in certain spheres we judge people as individuals, and don't take into account the statistical average of the… Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 So peer groups by themselves can't explain the unexplained variation in personality. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Art works because it appeals to certain faculties of the mind. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 I don't consider myself to be that radical a thinker. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Certainly the postmodernists in the humanities. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Status and virtue are cross-wired in the human brain. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 Recognizing those rights is not the same thing as believing that people are indistinguishable in every respect. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Not checkable Steven Pinker Not checkable 1 Jan 2002 This fear is based on a confusion between two very different ways to explain behavior. Steven Pinker · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2002
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2002 The Scion Value Fund had about $27 million in capital, and its minimum initial investment for new investors was raised to $500,000. Michael Burry · Factual · 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2002 During the vast majority of 2001, the Scion Value Fund held no short positions at all. Michael Burry · Factual · 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2002 The Scion Value Fund's cash position, around 40% for most of Q4 2001, kept it from fully participating in the general price rise across most stock categories. Michael Burry · Factual · 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2002 Burry said that, absent a new asset bubble, 2001-era US common stock valuations appeared to promise future returns well below those still expected by the investing public. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2002 Michael Burry invested the majority of his 2001 income back into the Scion Value Fund for a January 1 start. Michael Burry · Factual · 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2002 Since shortly after the Scion Value Fund's inception, Burry has outsourced administration and bookkeeping to Hedgeworks, LLC. Michael Burry · Factual · 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 3 Jul 2001 The Black-Scholes methodology relies on volatility for pricing options. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Jul 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 3 Jul 2001 Burry does not hedge the Scion Value Fund's portfolio, except to the extent that buying securities very cheaply may be considered a hedge. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 3 Jul 2001 During the first half of 2001 the Scion Value Fund appreciated 22.00% net of expenses and performance allocations. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 3 Jul 2001 The Scion Value Fund does not generally offer portfolio transparency to its members. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 3 Jul 2001 The Scion Value Fund will generally fall less than the market in a bear market. Michael Burry · Prediction · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 One of our advantages is that our technology follows Moore’s law: It gets cheaper every year, while real estate gets more expensive. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Mixed Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon reached 25 million customers and $2 billion in sales, which it had not expected. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's consumer electronics business surpassed music in 2000 to become its second largest business, and had been open for 17 months. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 When Amazon started, it had a hard time raising its first $1 million, then obtained $8 million from venture capital. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's consumer electronics business will eventually become its largest business and should be its most profitable. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 Our partnership with Toys “R” Us has worked out fabulously well. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 We would like to see a healthy Walmart.com because it validates e-commerce in general. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's business model lets it hold about four copies of an item in inventory rather than hundreds. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 It’s analogous to biological evolution. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Full-motion video will completely transform the online user experience, and Amazon's site will become more customized. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's initial plan was to grow slowly and become profitable quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 But it remains our vision to build a place where people can find everything online, and in some cases, we will partner with other folks in… Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Five years earlier, Amazon's website looked so different that there was no comparison with what it was in 2001. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon expected $100 million in sales in its first five years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 People are still talking about a $5 trillion online market worldwide. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 And there’s plenty of room to go around. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 Our competition is the physical world. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 In 10 years, the online shopping user experience will be so different it cannot now be imagined. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Technology
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 Because our inventory turns are so high, little perishes, which in turn can drive higher turns. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2 Apr 2001 We don’t need a brick & mortar component, we would only do a deal out of opportunity, not need. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2 Apr 2001
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 By holiday 1999, some companies were raising $60 million with one phone call and spending it all in one quarter on advertising. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon did not expect to reach its current scale for decades. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Steven Pinker

Open its page

Factual Science and research methods

“Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee 1 January 2002 A Biological Understanding of Human Nature (Edge.org)

Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2002 against behavioural-genetic research on the heritability of personality traits (e.g. Big Five) from twin and adoption studies. True: the typical heritability estimates reported then fell around 40–60%. Mostly true: typical estimates were around 30–40% or 60–70%, so 'about half' is a moderate overstatement or understatement. Mixed: estimates varied very widely between methods (e.g. twin vs adoption) so that about half fits only one major body of evidence. Mostly false: the consensus estimates were clearly lower (about 20–30%) or higher, and 'about half' overstates or distorts them. False: the evidence showed personality heritability to be negligible (under about 20%) or near-total.

Evidence

  1. Genetic and Environmental Influences on Adult Life Outcomes: Evidence from the Texas Adoption Project Behavior Genetics (Springer Science+Business Media), copy hosted on gwern.net · 2007
    “Existing research, mostly twin studies based on self-report questionnaires, suggests broad heritabilities largely in the 0.40s and 0.50s,”
  2. Genetic and Environmental Influences on Adult Life Outcomes: Evidence from the Texas Adoption Project Behavior Genetics (Springer Science+Business Media), copy hosted on gwern.net · 2007
    “And third, instead of the non-shared environmental contributions of 0.50–0.60 typically seen for personality traits, values in the range”
  3. Top 10 Replicated Findings from Behavioral Genetics PubMed Central (NCBI) · 1 November 2009
    “For personality, heritabilities are usually 30% -50%.”

Reasoning

E1, a 2007 paper presenting evidence from the Texas Adoption Project, says existing research, mostly twin studies, puts the broad heritability of personality largely in the 0.40s and 0.50s. That fits the true band of 40–60%. E2 says the non-shared environment typically accounts for 0.50–0.60 of personality variation, which leaves room for heritability of about 0.40–0.50. E3, a 2009 summary, puts personality heritability at 30–50%. These sources come after 2002 but describe the established body of research, and together they support 'about half' as typical.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes.” (said 1 January 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d33d52dca35b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d33d52dca35b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.