Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2002 against behavioural-genetic research on the heritability of personality traits (e.g. Big Five) from twin and adoption studies. True: the typical heritability estimates reported then fell around 40–60%. Mostly true: typical estimates were around 30–40% or 60–70%, so 'about half' is a moderate overstatement or understatement. Mixed: estimates varied very widely between methods (e.g. twin vs adoption) so that about half fits only one major body of evidence. Mostly false: the consensus estimates were clearly lower (about 20–30%) or higher, and 'about half' overstates or distorts them. False: the evidence showed personality heritability to be negligible (under about 20%) or near-total.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Genetic and Environmental Influences on Adult Life Outcomes: Evidence from the Texas Adoption Project Behavior Genetics (Springer Science+Business Media), copy hosted on gwern.net · 2007
“Existing research, mostly twin studies based on self-report questionnaires, suggests broad heritabilities largely in the 0.40s and 0.50s,”
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E2 Genetic and Environmental Influences on Adult Life Outcomes: Evidence from the Texas Adoption Project Behavior Genetics (Springer Science+Business Media), copy hosted on gwern.net · 2007
“And third, instead of the non-shared environmental contributions of 0.50–0.60 typically seen for personality traits, values in the range”
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E3 Top 10 Replicated Findings from Behavioral Genetics PubMed Central (NCBI) · 1 November 2009
“For personality, heritabilities are usually 30% -50%.”
Reasoning
E1, a 2007 paper presenting evidence from the Texas Adoption Project, says existing research, mostly twin studies, puts the broad heritability of personality largely in the 0.40s and 0.50s. That fits the true band of 40–60%. E2 says the non-shared environment typically accounts for 0.50–0.60 of personality variation, which leaves room for heritability of about 0.40–0.50. E3, a 2009 summary, puts personality heritability at 30–50%. These sources come after 2002 but describe the established body of research, and together they support 'about half' as typical.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes.” (said 1 January 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d33d52dca35b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d33d52dca35b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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John Ioannidis published a 2005 article that alerted scientists to the replicability crisis.
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