6,750 claims · page 33 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Prediction | 9 Nov 2022 | Thiel said that, if "it" is not enough for the Democrats, it is probably enough for the Republicans to win the 2024 presidential election; the excerpt does not say what "it" refers to. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 9 Nov 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | The average person in California earns twice as much as the average person in Germany and three times as much as the average person in Japan. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | At GitHub Universe in November 2022, GitHub announced Copilot for business and Codespaces for all. Satya Nadella · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | California is not a poor state. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 9 Nov 2022 | The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California. Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | The top 10% of Americans hold 80% of US equity, the top 1% about 50%, and the bottom 80% hold almost none. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Roubini's book MegaThreats extensively discusses the threat to liberal democracies from backlash against trade, technology and social and political institutions. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | US stocks will fall much lower than their November 2022 level before flattening out. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Developments connected to machine learning will cause massive inequality, with owners of capital and highly skilled labor winning while everybody else loses. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In November 2022 a one-year US Treasury yields roughly 4%. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | Historically, every time inequality reached this level it led to civil war and revolution. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2022 | In the last 60 years of US history, there has been no episode with inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5% in which the Fed started raising rates and avoided a hard landing. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 4 Nov 2022 | From mid-2021 to mid-2022 Rodney Brooks wrote 12 monthly columns. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 4 Nov 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 3 Nov 2022 | In Balaji Srinivasan's view, AR glasses are the most predictable innovation in the world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 3 Nov 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The US debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 is higher than after the Great Depression and World War II. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | He does not expect hyperinflation or double-digit inflation in the advanced economies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The 1970s stagflation was not a debt crisis and did not involve a geopolitical depression. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | Over the longer term, AI will make humans almost completely obsolete. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There will be inflation, recession and stagflation plus a stagflation-debt crisis causing many people to go bankrupt. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There is a very real risk of a return to 1930s-40s conditions of economic collapse, massive pandemic and real wars. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly false | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Until recently debt servicing costs were close to zero or negative despite unsustainably high debt ratios. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Quantitative easing kept debt servicing ratios low, and credit easing kept spreads low on everything from mortgages to high-yield high-grade commercial paper. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | In the 1970s there was a negative stagflationary shock with inflation followed by recession. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Iran is becoming nuclear, which Israel regards as an existential threat it cannot accept. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | The US and China will eventually be on a collision course over Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are revisionist powers rejecting the post-World War II international order. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | With interest rates rising, the mother of all debt crises is going to occur. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | Climate change causes zoonotic disease, and pandemics result from destruction of animal ecosystems. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 28 Oct 2022 | China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheet cracks, sea levels will rise 10 feet within about 4 months. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If inflation gets de-anchored, it can rise from around 2% to 4% or even 5% or more. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 28 Oct 2022 | If inflation rises from 2% to 6%, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise to about 8%. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 27 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella's annual letter to Microsoft shareholders reflects on connecting what technology can do with what the world needs. Satya Nadella · Factual · 27 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 25 Oct 2022 | The era of the Great Moderation, with okay growth and low 2% inflation, is over. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Oct 2022 | The economy is entering an era of stagflation, debt instability and crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 25 Oct 2022 | As of October 2022 the world faces major mega threats: monetary, social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, trade and technology. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Oct 2022 | Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Oct 2022 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Amodei said he does not believe US export controls were ever designed to prevent China from obtaining a few tens of thousands of chips. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek, a Chinese company, was the first to demonstrate the expected AI cost reductions, which had never before happened with a Chinese company. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Because reasoning-focused RL is new, the amount all AI developers spend on the RL training stage is still small, so the field is early on its scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | The current rate of algorithmic curve shift is maybe about 4x per year. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek-V3 was the real innovation and should have made people take notice a month before this statement, and the speaker says that "we" did take notice of it. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | US AI companies will soon achieve similar cost reductions, through the usual cost-reduction trend rather than by copying DeepSeek. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Anthropic finds Claude 3.5 Sonnet remains much better than DeepSeek-V3 on some key tasks such as real-world coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | DeepSeek was not substantially more resource-constrained than US AI companies, and export controls were not the main factor causing its innovation. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Dario Amodei and his co-founders were among the first to document, while at OpenAI, that scaling up AI training smoothly improves results across a range of cognitive tasks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Improvements in training cost efficiency typically lead AI companies to spend more, not less, on training models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Amodei said he thinks a fair statement is that DeepSeek produced a model close in performance to US models 7-10 months older, at a good deal less cost but not near the ratios people have suggested. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 12 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella gave a keynote at Microsoft Ignite on 2022-10-12. Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Promise | 12 Oct 2022 | Microsoft is bringing Microsoft Teams Rooms to Cisco meeting room devices. Satya Nadella · Promise · 12 Oct 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 21 Sep 2022 | Programs supported by the Global Fund have reduced the death toll from AIDS, TB and malaria by 50%, saving more than 50 million lives. Bill Gates · Factual · 21 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 20 Sep 2022 | The Goalkeepers community is meeting in person for the first time since 2019. Bill Gates · Factual · 20 Sep 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 16 Sep 2022 | Employment has risen because people enhanced their own capabilities by using machines rather than competing with them. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 16 Sep 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will become far smarter by using machines to increase the number of parameters they can consider in decisions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will go beyond their current 300 million neocortical modules. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Humans will be able to multiply their neocortical capacity by ten, a hundred, a thousand, a million. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 16 Sep 2022 | The number of people working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up, as shown in Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Nearer (expected June 18, 2024). Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 16 Sep 2022 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 16 Sep 2022 | Kurzweil said he believes humans will be enhanced by technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 16 Sep 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 15 Sep 2022 | Seven years before 2022, world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to reduce inequality by 2030. Bill Gates · Factual · 15 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 12 Sep 2022 | Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children under 5. Bill Gates · Factual · 12 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 8 Sep 2022 | Bill Gates has met Queen Elizabeth II. Bill Gates · Factual · 8 Sep 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 8 Sep 2022 | Germany's increased pledge to the Global Fund will help save millions of lives. Bill Gates · Prediction · 8 Sep 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Superbubbles first form, then suffer a setback with valuations taking a half-step back, as occurred in the first half of 2022. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 31 Aug 2022 | In the final stage, fundamentals will deteriorate and the market will decline to a low. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Markets have just seen the bear market rally stage of the superbubble pattern. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 28 Aug 2022 | Jeff Bezos says his first job was at the burger chain shown in the post (McDonald's). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 25 Aug 2022 | There is more public support than ever before for taking big steps to avoid a climate disaster. Bill Gates · Factual · 25 Aug 2022 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 23 Aug 2022 | In 2021 Bill Gates laid out a plan for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Bill Gates · Factual · 23 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 18 Aug 2022 | Dr. Helene Gayle and Ashish Dhawan have decided to join the Gates Foundation's board. Bill Gates · Factual · 18 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Prediction | 17 Aug 2022 | Eradicating malaria will be harder following the COVID-19 pandemic. Bill Gates · Prediction · 17 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Gates | Factual | 16 Aug 2022 | Mosquitoes need sugar more often than they need blood. Bill Gates · Factual · 16 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Aug 2022 | Tom Alberg was an early investor in Amazon and served on Amazon's board for 23 years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 4 Aug 2022 | Discover was still providing payment services to MindGeek as of 4 August 2022, despite Visa and Mastercard suspending theirs. Bill Ackman · Factual · 4 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2 Aug 2022 | Visa CEO Al Kelly had not been willing to appear on camera to address the allegations as of 2 August 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2 Aug 2022 | As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 | Other |
“Unless we address them, we're headed towards disaster.”
Nouriel Roubini, economist, in interview 25 October 2022 Nouriel Roubini: 'We're headed towards disaster' if we ignore these risks (Yahoo Finance)
Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Reasoning
'Disaster' is undefined and the prediction is conditional with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Nouriel Roubini, “Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster.” (said 25 October 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d0b4008fb20e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d0b4008fb20e
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.