Claims · Reliability API

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Person	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Kurzweil said we can conservatively expect the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Once the technology is refined, a reinstantiated scanned person will appear to observers to have much the same personality, history and memory as the original. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	As of 2001, people do not worry about causing pain and suffering to computer programs. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	The 21st century will see on the order of twenty thousand years of progress, measured at the rate of progress current when the statement was made (January 2001). Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Scanning a frozen brain is feasible today but not at sufficient speed or bandwidth; accelerating returns will supply the required scanning speed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Human-like intelligent entities will be capable of passing the Turing test. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI capabilities
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Technology is being shrunk by a factor of about 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Technology
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Most long-range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on an "intuitive linear" view of technological progress rather than a "historical exponential" view. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	It is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone living. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	There have been slightly more than 32 doublings of computing performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron's electrochemical processes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Jim Cramer	Not checkable	Jan 2001	I am so tempted to say that all of this kind of optimism is the real bunk. But who am I to buck the consensus when there is so much money… Jim Cramer · Not checkable · Jan 2001
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Evolution applies positive feedback, with more capable methods from one stage used to create the next. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Society will rethink social security once centenarians look and act like 30-year-olds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	According to Kurzweil's models, the physical limits of matter and energy for intelligent processes won't be approached this century but will become an issue within a couple of centuries. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Kurzweil estimates brain capacity as 100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections times 200 calculations per second. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	The 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The power of wireless communication is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Technology
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Once brain patterns can be stored and restored, the longevity of a person's mind file will not depend on any particular hardware medium. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Technology
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Recreating and enhancing human bodies will be, and has been, an easier task than recreating human minds. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing, though the reverse is not true. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Patterns of matter and energy in people change only gradually, while their actual material content changes constantly and very quickly. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Responses at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more serious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Routine college bioengineering labs will soon be able to create pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons, as more sophisticated labs already can. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Biosecurity
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Over the past 120 years, per-student investment in K-12 education in constant dollars has increased by a factor of ten. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Once a computer achieves human-level intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI capabilities
Mostly true	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	A computer can remember billions or trillions of facts perfectly, while humans struggle to remember a handful of phone numbers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Exponential growth in communications technology has been more explosive than in computation. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Technology
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	The underlying rate of economic growth will continue to double approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Economics and markets
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	All basic technologies for brain scanning exist in 2001, lacking only requisite speed, cost and size, which are improving at a double exponential pace. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Resolved true	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	As of 2001, technology exists that produces very high resolution scans if the scanner is physically close to the neural features. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	As of 2001, computational substrates are already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Nanobot-based brain scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Neural net connection calculations are less expensive than conventional (Pentium III/IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Moore's Law will run out of steam during the second decade of the 21st century, after which a sixth computing paradigm will take over. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The pace of technological change has advanced at least exponentially, not linearly, since the advent of technology and of evolution on Earth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The overall rate of technical progress is currently doubling approximately every decade, with paradigm shift times halving every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Technology
Resolved false	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Abandoning broad areas of technology would push them underground, where development would continue without ethics and regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Nanotechnology is the inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization across all technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Technology
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Citation	Jan 2001	Marvin Minsky observed that there is something queer about describing consciousness and people cannot make clear what they mean. Ray Kurzweil · Citation · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Most technology forecasts ignore altogether the historical exponential view of technological progress. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Technological evolution is an outgrowth and continuation of biological evolution. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Kurzweil's computing chart spans at least five distinct computing paradigms, of which Moore's Law is only the latest. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form a few years before 2001 and did not exist at all a decade before. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Technology
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient than digital computing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Humans will become vastly smarter as they merge with technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Because the rate of progress doubles every decade, a century of progress at the 2001 rate will occur in only 25 calendar years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Kurzweil's computation growth graph matches the available twentieth-century data through all five paradigms. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Kurzweil and Bill Joy have frequently been paired at venues as optimist and pessimist respectively. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	The next primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid of biological and nonbiological thinking. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Billions of nanobots could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Technological progress will literally get out of human control. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	Jan 2001	Nanotech is potentially more dangerous than biotech because nanobots can be physically stronger and more intelligent than protein-based entities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001	AI safety and alignment
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	Jan 2001	Watts has implemented his auditory model as real-time software that can locate and identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001	Science and research methods
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	Reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are under $50 billion, about 0.6% of GDP and 0.25% of liquidity available in stocks. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	US labor productivity grew 1.6% per year until 1994, then 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Once a species develops computing technology, within a couple of centuries its nonbiological intelligence explodes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2001	In retrospect, we signiﬁcantly underestimated how much time would be available to enter these categories Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	Experiments measuring photons at nearly twice light speed do not allow information to be communicated faster than light. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Science and research methods
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Nanobots will be introduced into the body without surgery, essentially by injecting or swallowing them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Technology
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Technology
Not researched	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	Unlike nearly every other industry, technology companies pay employees in a way that hides much of the compensation expense from the income statement (stock options). Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	The conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true	Jeff Bezos	Factual	2001	Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2001	We’re a company that wants to be weighed, and over time, we will be—over the long term, all companies are. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Total human biological thinking capacity of about 10^26 calculations per second will never appreciably change, apart from a small genetic-engineering increase. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	Burry is a tax-paying US citizen. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Humanity will reverse-engineer the human brain to gain insights for building more intelligent machines. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Science and research methods
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2001	we are working to build something important, something that matters to our customers Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	Burry personally had over $1 million invested in Scion Value Fund when writing the 2000 annual letter. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Jeff Bezos	Prediction	2001	Improvements in disk space and processing power price performance will let Amazon do more and better real-time personalization of its website. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001	Technology
Mixed	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	The cost of employee stock option compensation is borne by shareholders through significant dilution. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Nonbiological intelligence, growing at a double exponential rate, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of the twenty-first century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	The Scion Value Fund's largest holding on September 11, 2001 was an airline stock. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	SETI has not looked everywhere but has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Other global risks
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	By the end of the 21st century nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of biological humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Brain nanobots can all be directed to leave the body, so their use will be easily reversible. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Technology
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Nonbiological intelligence will ultimately dominate because it grows at a double exponential rate while biological intelligence is static. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	In the first nine months of 2001 the Scion Value Fund appreciated 10.98% net of expenses and performance allocations. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Mostly false	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Technology
Unresolvable	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	As of the first quarter 2001 letter, Burry's Scion Capital fund was biased toward smaller capitalization stocks. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	Productivity (economic output per worker) has been growing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Biological human thinking is stuck at 1026 (presumably 10^26) calculations per second for all human brains, and this figure will not appreciably change even with bioengineering changes to the human genome. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI compute, hardware and data
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	The vast majority of Burry's net worth, aside from money for modest living expenses, is invested in the Scion Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	By 2099, intelligence from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than in 2001, mostly nonbiological. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Ray Kurzweil	Factual	2001	The 1990s saw the most powerful deflationary forces in history. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2001	It gets more interesting every year that goes by, in part because so little has changed. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not checkable	Jeff Bezos	Not checkable	2001	While there are no foregone conclusions, and we still have much to prove, Amazon.com today is a unique asset. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Resolved false	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Science and research methods
Own records only	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	The Scion Value Fund fell in Q3 2001 because several key stocks Burry chose declined in price. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Michael Burry	Factual	2001	In the two months ended December 31, 2000, Scion Value Fund's net performance beat the S&P 500 by 14.08%. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time	Michael Burry	Promise	2001	The Scion Value Fund's minimum initial investment for future investors will be raised to $250,000 as of the July 1, 2001 investment date. Michael Burry · Promise · 2001	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Ray Kurzweil	Prediction	2001	From a practical perspective, people will accept the claims of nonbiological intelligent machines in the twenty-first century that they are conscious. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Michael Burry	Prediction	2001	Burry said he fully expected the Scion Value Fund's expense ratio for members to decrease quite significantly as assets under management grew with new investors. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001	Their own work or organisation

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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Factual AI compute, hardware and data

“For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library)

As of 2001, computational substrates are already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry.

Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “As of 2001, computational substrates are already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry.” (said January 2001). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_cef70d82fef5, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cef70d82fef5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.