Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

340 claims · page 4 of 4

340 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Some e-commerce businesses will fail in 2001. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“If our 7-year forecast were to turn out right – it just might happen one day – then U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2007 The First Truly Global Bubble (It's Everywhere, In Everything) (GMO)

GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

This is a prediction that U.S. equities would return about -1.4% real per year over the 7 years from April 2007, judged around April 2014 (calendar 2014 at the latest). Measure: the annualized real (inflation-adjusted, CPI) total return of a broad U.S. large-cap index (S&P 500 or GMO's own U.S. large-cap benchmark) over that period. TRUE: the realized annualized real return lies between -2.4% and -0.4%. MOSTLY TRUE: it is negative but outside that band (above -0.4%, or between -4% and -2.4%). MIXED: it is roughly flat, between 0% and +1%. MOSTLY FALSE: it is between +1% and +3%. FALSE: it is above +3%, or below -4% (well wide of the forecast in the other direction). The hedge ('if', 'it just might happen') does not change the test: the forecast figure is judged against the outcome.

Evidence

  1. 2007 dollars in 2014: $100 → $114.18 | Inflation Calculator in2013dollars.com (Official Data Foundation / Alioth Finance)
    “| Real Inflation Adjusted | $100 | $147.57 | 47.57% |”
  2. 2007 dollars in 2014: $100 → $114.18 | Inflation Calculator in2013dollars.com (Official Data Foundation / Alioth Finance)
    “if we had invested $100 in the S&P 500 index in 2007, our investment would be nominally worth approximately $168.49 in 2014. This is a return on investment of 68.49%, with an absolute return of $68.49 on top of the original $100.”
  3. S&P 500 Returns By Year US500 (Logarithms LLC)
    “| 2008 | -37.00% | 0.11% | -37.07% |”
  4. Market Valuations and Expected Returns - December 4, 2014 Yahoo Finance · 4 December 2014
    “GMO expected US large cap real return is -1.7%.”

Reasoning

E2 is an independent calculator page titled "2007 dollars in 2014: $100 → $114.18". It says $100 put into the S&P 500 in 2007 would be worth about $168.49 in nominal terms by 2014. The same page gives an inflation-adjusted value of $147.57 (E1). That figure matches $168.49 divided by the title's inflation factor of 1.1418, which works out to roughly +5.7% real per year over the 7 years. This is far above the +3% line for a false verdict and well wide of the forecast of −1.4% real per year. The page does not measure the April 2007 to April 2014 window, so the figure is an approximation of the period the criteria set; even so, the 47.57% cumulative real return [E1] is far above what +3% a year over about seven years would produce. E4 shows GMO still forecasting a negative return in late 2014, but that is a new forecast, not the outcome.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages.” (said April 2007). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_cedf85f3a6e5, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cedf85f3a6e5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.