Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 The RTX 5070 laptop priced at $1,299 has RTX 4090 performance at half the power. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA's AI Blueprints are completely open source. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 Zoox has purpose-built vehicles with no steering wheel or brake and accelerator pedals. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Technology
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI Safety Institutes will offer guidance in 2025 but have little legal authority to stop truly dangerous models. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 1 Jan 2025 As of end 2024, AI model makers have very little moat, with many similar models and a price war. Gary Marcus · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 1 Jan 2025 OpenAI has returned no profits, does not expect profits until at least 2029, has a burn rate in the billions, and lacks a clear technical moat. Gary Marcus · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Lack of reliability will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 Boeing's Starliner did not bring its crew back from space as expected. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Hallucinations will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 A large-scale cyberattack in which generative AI plays an important causal role may well occur in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Other global risks
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI agents will be heavily hyped throughout 2025 but remain far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 In 2025 humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 Both billionaire founders of the two suborbital tourism companies have flown to space on their own craft. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 OpenAI's Sora will continue to have trouble with physics in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 In the 2017 'Attention Is All You Need' transformer architecture, each column from bottom to top is a pure feed-forward network with no search, iteration or conventional algorithm. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 2025 Buffett will personally match whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed "Charlie" books for the Stephen Center. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 2025 People put instructions in LLM system prompts but cannot get the systems to follow them. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 2025 Many index and passive funds vote in line with Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations. Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2025 Warren Buffett received an education at three universities. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2025 Scion's agreements with counterparties required daily collateral valuation in both directions. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual 2025 LLMs, which are not AGI, are already eliminating some human work. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2025 When buying Forest River, Warren Buffett asked Pete Liegl what his compensation should be and said he would accept whatever Liegl named. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2025 Michael Burry earned a bachelor's degree in economics at UCLA and then an MD at Vanderbilt School of Medicine. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 2025 A company that has already gone public cannot create a super voting stock. Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 2025 Becky Quick and her CNBC crew transmit Berkshire's meetings worldwide and archive much Berkshire-related material. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 2025 Microsoft Office was first created for the Mac, before Windows existed. Satya Nadella · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2025 Blue Ocean Re was set up in late 2005 to take advantage of what Burry called an extraordinary pricing ability in the retrocessional reinsurance space. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Gary Marcus Factual 2025 Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2025 Burry's main contact at Goldman Sachs was Veronica, a front-end salesperson. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2025 In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 2025 Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 2025 Scion did not pay $10,000,000 for the credit default swap; that was only its notional value. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 31 Dec 2024 X is the number 1 source of news on Earth. Elon Musk · Factual · 31 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 30 Dec 2024 Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 30 Dec 2024 The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Elon Musk · Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 30 Dec 2024 Community Notes only shows a note when people who have historically disagreed agree that it is valid. Elon Musk · Factual · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Jensen Huang Factual 29 Dec 2024 After Nvidia's first graphics chip attempt failed, Huang says the company's engineers, together with Chris and Curtis, pivoted to the right way of doing things. Jensen Huang · Factual · 29 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Tom Tugendhat did not become leader of the UK Conservative Party. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Srugim is a TV show covering Modern Orthodox Jews in contemporary Israel. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 As of December 2024, OpenAI's o1 pro is the best AI model available. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly false Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 The Israeli TV show Srugim is now massively popular. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Cowen says the person he is discussing has definitely made many more people vegetarians and probably influenced pro-animal legislation, adding that he has never measured this. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 The Biden administration relied much less on economists than the Obama administration did. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 The podcast Cowen was describing, which he said had about seven episodes and in which neither host interviews the other, is all economics, unlike Conversations with Tyler. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Hester Peirce previously worked at Mercatus, where she studied crypto, before becoming an SEC commissioner. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Use of Washington DC bike lanes has been declining, according to numbers Cowen has seen. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Tyler Cowen said he stated The Great Stagnation in 2011 and that he thinks it was seen as radical at the time. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Of the two films discussed, Cowen said Touch of Sin is the one that has become a big deal. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 Some classical music recordings sell at most 300 to 400 copies. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Sam Altman Prediction 21 Dec 2024 On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction. Sam Altman · Prediction · 21 Dec 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Sam Altman Promise 21 Dec 2024 OpenAI is giving all Plus users unlimited Sora access via the relaxed queue over the 2024 holidays. Sam Altman · Promise · 21 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 12 Dec 2024 On 2024-12-12 OpenAI began rolling out video input, including screenshare, for ChatGPT voice mode. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Dec 2024 AI capabilities
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 10 Dec 2024 Solitary confinement for prisoners might be more expensive than standard imprisonment. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 10 Dec 2024 Following Roodman, Scott's original cost-benefit analysis of prison gave two conclusions: one counting prisoners' own suffering and one not. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 10 Dec 2024 Most of the benefits of prison come from incapacitation rather than deterrence. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 10 Dec 2024 Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 10 Dec 2024 OpenAI significantly underestimated demand for Sora at its December 2024 launch. Sam Altman · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 10 Dec 2024 In the original post, Scott said that although murder was down in El Salvador, the statistics didn't really show a decline in theft. Scott Alexander · Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 9 Dec 2024 OpenAI launched Sora on 2024-12-09 along with a new product, letting Plus and Pro users generate videos. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Dec 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 6 Dec 2024 OpenAI announced reinforcement finetuning on 2024-12-06, which makes it easy to create expert models in specific domains with little training data. Sam Altman · Factual · 6 Dec 2024 AI capabilities
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 5 Dec 2024 OpenAI launched ChatGPT Pro at $200/month with unlimited usage and a more capable mode for using o1. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Sam Altman Promise 4 Dec 2024 OpenAI will hold a livestream with a launch or demo each weekday during its '12 days of openai' starting 2024-12-05 at 10am Pacific. Sam Altman · Promise · 4 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Hassabis's first career was writing AI for commercial computer games. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Little progress was made in CASP protein structure prediction accuracy for a decade before AlphaFold. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Mixed Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Hassabis's team has practised open science and open access with all of its scientific work. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 AlphaFold was open sourced and made freely available for the world to use. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Proteins are the building blocks of life. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Over two million researchers have used AlphaFold and its predicted structures. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Theme Park had AI at the heart of its gameplay. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 In 2016 AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol 4-1 in a match in Seoul. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Hassabis first came across the protein folding problem as an undergraduate at Cambridge in the 1990s. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 AlphaFold2 was re-architected for CASP14 to reach atomic accuracy, leading the CASP organisers to declare the problem solved. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 Demis Hassabis learned to play chess at age four. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual Dec 2024 AlphaFold2 achieved atomic accuracy at CASP14 in 2020. Demis Hassabis · Factual · Dec 2024 Science and research methods
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 Nissan partnered with Microsoft to create a model predicting EV battery performance over time, improving it by about 80%. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 Science and research methods
Mostly true Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft and Atom Computing will make available a commercial quantum discovery suite combining Azure science solutions and Atom's quantum hardware for companies and labs. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Technology
Delivered on time Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft will offer $4 million in rewards in a new hacking event focused on securing cloud and AI, culminating in an in-person event next year. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 With point-in-time restore, Windows 365 customers can be up and running in minutes and roll back a Cloud PC to its exact earlier state. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 Azure Quantum provides virtualization technology that can extend any type of qubit, detect and correct errors in physical qubits. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 Technology
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 McKinsey has built an autonomous agent that reduces client onboarding time by as much as 90%. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 Windows 365 Link is admin-less and password-less, with security configurations enabled by default that cannot be turned off. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft is bringing SQL Server natively to Fabric with Microsoft Fabric Databases. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft will ship the announced GitHub Copilot agent innovations in the months following the November 2024 keynote. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft announced mobile application management for Windows 365 on iOS and Android. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Promise 19 Nov 2024 Microsoft announced that the Windows App is coming to Android. Satya Nadella · Promise · 19 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 19 Nov 2024 The U.S. Navy responded to all the executive orders and mandates and met its zero-trust goals years ahead of schedule. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 Technology
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 18 Nov 2024 A gunpowder revolution occurred in the 17th century and changed social and political structures. Peter Thiel · Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Technology
Mostly false Peter Thiel Factual 18 Nov 2024 When people were writing about these things in the 18th and even 19th centuries, the idea was that the world was too big to be destroyed and that God would not do it. Peter Thiel · Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Other global risks
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 18 Nov 2024 Thousands of nuclear weapons, not just dozens, were built in the 1960s and 1970s. Peter Thiel · Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Other global risks
Back to the list

Sam Altman

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“we significantly underestimated demand for sora; it is going to take awhile to get everyone access.”

Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, on X 10 December 2024 Post by @sama on X, 2024-12-10 (X)

OpenAI significantly underestimated demand for Sora at its December 2024 launch.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: dated evidence from the December 2024 Sora launch shows demand well above what OpenAI planned for, e.g. sign-ups were paused or new account creation was disabled, capacity limits were hit, or long waits occurred because of unexpected load. Mostly true: demand clearly exceeded capacity but the shortfall looks moderate rather than 'significant', or access limits were partly planned. Mixed: access limits were at least as much a planned staged rollout as a response to unexpected demand. Mostly false: restrictions came mainly from planned limits (e.g. regional exclusions, a deliberately capped rollout) with little sign of unexpected demand. False: evidence shows access worked without demand-driven restrictions, or OpenAI's capacity matched demand.

Evidence

  1. OpenAI disables new Sora sign-ups due to high demand TechCrunch · 9 December 2024
    “demand higher than expected; signups will be disabled on and off and generations will be slow for awhile.”
  2. OpenAI disables new Sora sign-ups due to high demand TechCrunch · 9 December 2024
    “OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on X that due to higher than expected demand, they are pausing new sign-ups for its video generator Sora and that video generations will be slower for the time being.”

Reasoning

TechCrunch reported on 2024-12-09 that OpenAI paused new Sora sign-ups and that video generations would be slower because demand was higher than expected (E1, E2). That meets the resolution criteria's example for demand well above plan. However, TechCrunch's account comes from Altman's own post on X, and the evidence does not independently show how large the shortfall was. The sign-up pause is reported by an independent outlet, but the "significant" part of the claim rests on Altman's own description, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “OpenAI significantly underestimated demand for Sora at its December 2024 launch.” (said 10 December 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c7fd57e77147, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c7fd57e77147

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.