Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

498 claims · page 1 of 5

498 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 28 Oct 2026 Silver said that, "with AI looming too," "it could be the biggest issue of 2028," and argued that AI could become one of the defining issues of the next US presidential election. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Michael Burry Promise 26 Oct 2026 Michael Burry will not change Cassandra Unchained pricing from $49/month and $479/year. Michael Burry · Promise · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Michael Burry Promise 26 Oct 2026 Subscribers to Cassandra Unchained keep their original rate and plan for the lifetime of their subscription and can renew continuously at that initial rate. Michael Burry · Promise · 26 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 23 Oct 2026 The 2026 elections will almost certainly include states with Senate and gubernatorial results splitting by party, similar to Vermont and Kansas in 2022. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 23 Oct 2026 FLIPR projects the median margin gap between statewide contests in 2026 will be about six points. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 21 Oct 2026 A transcript with video and audio of the entire 2026 Microsoft Annual Meeting will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website after the meeting. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 21 Oct 2026 Microsoft's 2026 Annual Meeting on December 8, 2026 will be followed by a question and answer session. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Daniela Amodei Promise 21 Oct 2026 Anthropic will publish its public benefit report annually. Daniela Amodei · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 21 Oct 2026 Microsoft's 2026 virtual Annual Shareholders Meeting on December 8, 2026 will be conducted and made available via webcast. Satya Nadella · Promise · 21 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Steven Pinker Prediction 7 Oct 2026 Pinker said he thinks this ongoing effort, discussed alongside debates over neural-network approaches to AI and large language models, is going to define the agenda for cognitive science for decades to come. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 7 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Michael Burry Prediction 6 Oct 2026 The current denial stage of the stock market will last 6-9 months, as in 2000 and 2008. Michael Burry · Prediction · 6 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Oct 2026 Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due GiveWell Prediction 30 Sep 2026 GiveWell expects to direct nearly three times as much malaria funding in 2026 as in 2025. GiveWell · Prediction · 30 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he thinks Javier Milei will be reelected because people understand the stakes. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction 25 Sep 2026 Thiel put the chance of a democratic socialist winning the 2028 election at perhaps 50 percent. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 25 Sep 2026 Other
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Over the next 5 to 10 years, tasks that now take 10 years will take 1 year because of AI. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 This year (2026), "we" will invest close to $1 trillion into United States infrastructure. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 We are building 100 gigawatts between now and the end of the decade, because we want to produce intelligence for the world. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In a decade, people will not talk about AI as much as they do now, because it will be expected everywhere. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, average per capita token use will rise to roughly 100 billion tokens a month. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Huang cited, as something he hears, the view that within the next couple of years we will achieve essentially what people call AGI; he said this is not illogical to him and argued that we are practically there today. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 4 Sep 2026 In another 6.5 years, the world's top individual user will use about 100 quadrillion tokens a month. Sam Altman · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 4 Sep 2026 Over the next 5 to 10 years, tasks that now take 1 year will take a month because of AI. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 4 Sep 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due GiveWell Prediction 31 Aug 2026 GiveWell's total grantmaking in 2026 is likely to approach or exceed $1 billion. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Gates Prediction 29 Aug 2026 Capable robots that let AI do physical jobs across the economy will arrive within a couple of years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will deliver an average ROCE of about 11% for 2026-2027 and above 13% for 2028-2030. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted's dividend policy for financial years 2026-2028 is expected to start at a modest level and increase annually. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will deliver 2026 EBITDA above DKK 28 billion excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will announce the proposed dividend level in its Annual Report 2026. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted targets to reinstate dividend distributions for financial year 2026, with the first distribution in 2027. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 13 Aug 2026 Ørsted will reinstate a dividend payout to its shareholders as planned. Ørsted · Promise · 13 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The FDA will likely approve Alcon's AURN001, with blockbuster potential beyond Alcon's commercial targets. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Other
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes Alcon's mid-term revenue growth target of 6%-8% remains credible. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Ackman stated that "we expect" Meta to grow earnings at a rate of 20% or more over the next few years, following 2026's elevated investment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Promise 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square intends to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5-3 billion of excess cash flow expected from Howard Hughes' real estate operations over the next three to five years into its insurance operations. Bill Ackman · Promise · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates that its portfolio companies have an average prospective annual EPS growth rate of about 20% over the next three to five years. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The letter states an expectation that each of its current portfolio companies will grow EPS at an annual rate of 15% or more over the next three to five years, with about half expected to achieve EPS growth of 20% or more over the same period. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jim Cramer Prediction Aug 2026 Cramer said he thinks this quarter's information is fresh enough that picking a travel, semiconductor capital equipment, cybersecurity, M&A-related or medtech stock would greatly increase investors' chances of making money for the rest of 2026. Jim Cramer · Prediction · Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Asked whether he was sure that humans would no longer be in control in 10 years' time (by 2036), Musk said "I think it is unlikely", and added that if the gap in intelligence were vast, it would be hard to imagine the chimpanzees being in charge. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 A civil war in Britain is probably about 20 years away. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 Other global risks
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 On a timescale of less than 10 years, AI and robots will dominate everything in terms of big macro effects. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 The AI robot singularity is 10 years away. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Musk's guess is that AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in roughly five years (around 2031). Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Money won't matter in 2036. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Around five years from now there will be nothing AI cannot do better than humans, apart from being human. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jul 2026 Musk said he would expect that in 10 years (by 2036) artificial intelligence will be far greater than the sum of human intelligence. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 4 Jun 2026 Because people define AGI differently, there will be a roughly three-year period (around 2026 to 2029) in which people predict AGI is here. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 4 Jun 2026 AI will merge with humans so that people cannot tell whether a thought comes from their AI or their biological brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 2 Jun 2026 In the coming months Microsoft will build Autopilots out into a complete digital team of autopilots inside Copilot. Satya Nadella · Promise · 2 Jun 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 2 Jun 2026 QuNorth will have a quantum computer powered by atom computers (described as 'natural atom computers') with Microsoft's stack in it. Satya Nadella · Promise · 2 Jun 2026 Technology
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 2 Jun 2026 Nadella said that in summer 2026 coding would be brought to all knowledge work within one Copilot super app. Satya Nadella · Promise · 2 Jun 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 2 Jun 2026 Huang relayed that someone had told him the night before that Taiwan's annual GDP is going to grow almost 10% this year (2026). Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jensen Huang Promise 1 Jun 2026 With every generation of its architecture, NVIDIA will offer a desktop, a laptop and a workstation in this new PC family. Jensen Huang · Promise · 1 Jun 2026 Technology
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 1 Jun 2026 The Vera CPU will be NVIDIA's new major growth driver. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Dalio Prediction 9 May 2026 Republicans will probably lose control of the US House in the 2026 midterm elections. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Ray Dalio Prediction 9 May 2026 Dalio said he thinks that over the next five years there will be huge changes as five forces, which the quoted passage does not name, come together, and that afterwards things will be almost unrecognizable. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Dalio Prediction 9 May 2026 Political and social conflict in the US will intensify between the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 6 May 2026 Ørsted will significantly increase its power generation throughout 2026 as its offshore construction projects are delivered. Ørsted · Prediction · 6 May 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 6 May 2026 Ørsted maintains its gross investment guidance of DKK 50-55 billion. Ørsted · Promise · 6 May 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 6 May 2026 Ørsted maintains its full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance of above DKK 28 billion excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees. Ørsted · Promise · 6 May 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 29 Apr 2026 Zuckerberg expects 2026 to be a key period for establishing AI agents as the way people use AI. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 29 Apr 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Guidance 29 Apr 2026 Meta is increasing its 2026 infrastructure capital expenditure forecast. Mark Zuckerberg · Guidance · 29 Apr 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 10 Apr 2026 Within 50 years, AI-enabled abundance could lead to human flourishing, cured diseases, longer healthier lives and travel to the stars. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 10 Apr 2026 Science-fiction developments such as asteroid mining become very plausible in the next 50 years. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 Technology
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 10 Apr 2026 Within 50 years, humanity could get safely through the AGI moment, with AGI built and helpful to society. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction Apr 2026 Technological advances such as AI will drive the world economy over the next 10 to 20 years, regardless of geopolitics, climate change or populism, and will be positive for the world. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Apr 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 24 Mar 2026 A project to build a free AI doctor with more expertise than any doctor is doable within the next two to three years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 24 Mar 2026 Khosla said he believes fear of AI will be the single biggest issue in the 2028 US presidential election. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 17 Mar 2026 NVIDIA's DSX digital twin system could improve data center energy efficiency by about 2 times, by conservative estimate. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 17 Mar 2026 Huang sees at least $1 trillion in demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell and Rubin AI infrastructure through 2027. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Jensen Huang Prediction 16 Mar 2026 Actual computing demand will be much higher than the $1 trillion through 2027 figure. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 16 Mar 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Tyler Cowen Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Maybe 40 years later, everyone will accept that it is all the AIs, though it will have come about by trick. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Tyler Cowen Prediction 4 Mar 2026 The AI revolution will be the fastest of all technological revolutions in recent world history. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Khosla said he suspects that by 2040, $30,000 (and maybe $10,000) will buy much more than $100,000 of income buys today. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Tyler Cowen Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he thinks that within ten years the US will be bidding for immigrants, be much more selective, use more market mechanisms and use immigration to raise revenue. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Not yet due Tyler Cowen Prediction 4 Mar 2026 Cowen said he can readily imagine that within 50 years most diseases will have been beaten back and everyone will die of old age or accidents. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 4 Mar 2026 Other
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Jan 2026 The models that Zuckerberg's company is launching, starting with the first set and continuing over the year, will get a lot better. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Not yet due Satya Nadella Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Over 250 customers are on track to process over one trillion tokens on Foundry this year. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Beyond roughly three years, Tesla will be limited by chip supplier output. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks the numbers mean that, for the next couple of years, ads will be by far the important driver of growth in Meta's business. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Musk said "we" expect fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of 2026, pending regulatory approval. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Zuckerberg said he thinks 2026 will be the year AI starts to dramatically change the way Meta works. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Zuckerberg said he expects the AI wave to accelerate further on several fronts in 2026. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 28 Jan 2026 Musk said he thinks that, three or four years out, chip production will be the limiting factor for Tesla's growth. Elon Musk · Prediction · 28 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Promise 28 Jan 2026 Meta expects to roll out its new AI-enabled products and formats over the course of 2026. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla expects to operate autonomous service in dozens of major cities by end of 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla aspires to release the AI6 chip in under a year after AI5. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Guidance 28 Jan 2026 Meta expects Reality Labs losses in 2026 to be similar to 2025, likely the peak, with losses gradually reducing afterwards. Mark Zuckerberg · Guidance · 28 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 SpaceX and Tesla teams are each working to build up to 100 GW a year of US solar manufacturing, which will probably take about three years. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2026 Within 2 years, maybe 3 at the latest, space will be the lowest-cost place to put AI. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 Musk said he thought Tesla would probably be selling humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2026 AI smarter than any human might exist by the end of 2026, and no later than 2027. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 SpaceX will launch solar-powered AI satellites within a few years. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 SpaceX hopes to prove full reusability of Starship in 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2026 Very soon, possibly later in 2026, more chips will be produced than can be turned on, except in China. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 Tesla's Robotaxi service, now in a few cities, will be very widespread in the US by the end of 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2026 Musk said that probably by the end of 2026, in his view, Tesla Optimus robots would be doing more complex tasks, still deployed in industrial environments. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 20 Jan 2026 Kurzweil said he thinks that by 2029 everyone will accept that AGI has been achieved. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 20 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 20 Jan 2026 Humanity will reach longevity escape velocity by 2032, with medical advances giving back a year for each year aged. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 20 Jan 2026 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 20 Jan 2026 Within the next 10 years humans will reach Kurzweil's definition of the singularity, being at least a thousand times more intelligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 20 Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
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Elon Musk

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Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“Meaning, in 10 years, I would expect artificial intelligence to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence.”

Elon Musk, interviewee 27 July 2026 Elon Musk The Economist July 23rd 2026 - Full Interview Transcript (Sozai)

Musk said he would expect that in 10 years (by 2036) artificial intelligence will be far greater than the sum of human intelligence.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2036 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Musk said he would expect that in 10 years (by 2036) artificial intelligence will be far greater than the sum of human intelligence.” (said 27 July 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_c6d96eb4d0f9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c6d96eb4d0f9

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.