Claims

Factual · Other · Political

“I myself confess that I’ve been surprised at how the American conservatives and the Republican Party have flip-flopped on core beliefs”

Steven Pinker, author, interviewee · 13 February 2018 · Steven Pinker Interview: Life Has Become Better (Smashing Interviews)

American conservatives and the Republican Party have flip-flopped on core beliefs such as sympathy for Russia and dictatorships, Christian virtues, and free trade.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2018-02-13. The claim is that American conservatives and the Republican Party reversed position on core beliefs, including sympathy for Russia and dictatorships, the importance of Christian virtues, and free trade. True: survey data (Gallup, Pew, YouGov) and party platforms or leaders' statements show clear reversals on all three by early 2018 compared with earlier Republican positions (for example, rising Republican favourability toward Russia or Putin, evangelicals becoming much more accepting of personal immorality in leaders, and Republicans turning against free-trade agreements). Mostly true: two show clear reversals and the third shows a marked but not full shift. Mixed: roughly half show reversals. Mostly false: only modest shifts that fall short of a reversal, or a shift on just one issue. False: the data show stable Republican positions on these issues.

Evidence

1. 7. Opinions on U.S. international involvement, free trade, ISIS and Syria, Russia and China Pew Research Center · 27 October 2016

   “Sentiment is much more negative than it was in May 2015 when 51% of Republican voters said free trade was a good thing for the U.S. and just 39% said it was a bad thing.”

2. Putin's Image Rises in U.S., Mostly Among Republicans Gallup · 21 February 2017

   “A major reason for the overall rise in Putin's favorable rating this year is Republicans' more positive views of the Russian leader, from 12% in 2015 to 32% today.”

3. Publics Worldwide Unfavorable Toward Putin, Russia Pew Research Center · 16 August 2017

   “In the past two years, Republican views have become significantly more positive, while Democratic views are little changed. Today, only 16% of Democrats have a favorable view of Russia, compared with 41% of Republicans.”

4. How Trump has changed white evangelicals' views about morality Good Authority (articles by David Campbell and Geoffrey Layman, University of Notre Dame) · 11 September 2024

   “But in an October 2016 poll by PRRI and the Brookings Institution — after the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape — only 20 percent of evangelicals, answering the same question, said that private immorality meant someone could not behave ethically in public.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows Republican views of Putin and Russia becoming more favourable [E2][E3] and Republican views of free trade becoming much more negative after May 2015 [E1]. It does not give the later trade figures or any earlier baseline for the 2016 evangelical figure [E4], so it does not show the clear reversals the criteria require for this verdict.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “American conservatives and the Republican Party have flip-flopped on core beliefs such as sympathy for Russia and dictatorships, Christian virtues, and free trade.” (said 13 February 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c0789d44d31e, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c0789d44d31e