Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“Over the past two weeks, rates have declined dramatically purportedly due to fears of a recession.”

Bill Ackman, writing on X · 4 July 2022 · Post by @BillAckman on X, 2022-07-04 (X)

Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judge for roughly 20 June to 1 July 2022 (the last trading days before 4 July 2022). True if benchmark market interest rates (e.g. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 2-year yield, or mortgage rates) fell sharply over that period, e.g. the 10-year yield declining by about 30 basis points or more from its mid-June peak. Mostly true if major benchmarks fell by about 20–30 bp, a notable but less dramatic drop. Mixed if some benchmarks fell meaningfully while others were flat or rose. Mostly false if declines were small (under ~15 bp) so 'dramatically' substantially overstates it. False if benchmark rates were flat or rose over the period.

Evidence

1. Normal International Monetary Fund, Global Markets Monitor (Monetary and Capital Markets) · 30 June 2022

   “US Treasury yields declined by 5–8 bps across tenors, with 10-year yields down 8 bps to 3.1%.”

2. Normal International Monetary Fund, Global Markets Monitor (Monetary and Capital Markets) · 30 June 2022

   “has pushed US Treasury yields down 10 to 15 bps across maturities”

3. 10-year Treasury yield tops 3.48%, the highest in 11 years CNBC · 14 June 2022

   “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped around 9 basis points to 3.276%, paring gains after climbing to 3.39%”

Reasoning

E3, a CNBC report titled "10-year Treasury yield tops 3.48%, the highest in 11 years" and dated 14 June 2022, puts the mid-June peak of the 10-year Treasury yield at about 3.39–3.48%. The IMF's Global Markets Monitor of 30 June 2022 (E1) puts the 10-year yield at 3.1%, and E2 notes moves that pushed yields down 10–15 bp across maturities. That is a fall of roughly 30–38 bp from the mid-June peak, which meets the criteria's threshold for a dramatic decline. The evidence does not show the exact 20 June starting level, but the measure the criteria name, the fall from the mid-June peak, is met.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022.” (said 4 July 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b6d98d16a4f2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b6d98d16a4f2