2,653 claims · page 14 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Stripe, when she worked there, operated in the highly regulated financial services space with many checks and balances on the company. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic released a writeup on Garcon, the infrastructure tool its team used for interpretability research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Promise | 2022 | If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Bill Ackman · Promise · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic was founded at the beginning of 2021 by a team of seven people who moved together from OpenAI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic does scaling laws research to predict empirically what properties emerge in language models at various sizes. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Dario Amodei was a very early fan of GiveWell, she thought around 2007 or 2008. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic believes some of the larger language models it has seen have figured out how to lie unintentionally. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Training large generative models is becoming almost prohibitively expensive. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 31 Dec 2021 | No electric heater is more energy-efficient than any other electric heater. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 31 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will attract a fair number of students. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen said it now seems quite clear that the data the US Navy is picking up on unidentified aerial phenomena are real, not instrument errors or bad eyewitness reports. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | The food in airports has gotten better over time. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Tyler Cowen sits on the advisory board of the University of Austin and has no governing role there. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Prediction | 29 Dec 2021 | The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 29 Dec 2021 | Primary contributions to child outcomes tend to be genetic, though at the margin family culture matters. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 29 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 21 Dec 2021 | There are 365.2422 days between spring equinoxes, 365.259636 days between Earth's perihelions, and 365.25 days in a light-year. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 21 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | Jeff Bezos appeared with Michael Strahan on Thursday Night Football and gave him a gift. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | DeepMind has published work applying AI to quantum chemistry in Science magazine. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 10 Dec 2021 | The properties of materials largely depend on their electrons. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 10 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Delivered on time | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 9 Dec 2021 | DeepMind will release more than 100 million protein structures over the next year, covering almost every sequenced protein known to science. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 9 Dec 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 7 Dec 2021 | Source Code covers Bill Gates's life from his childhood through the early days of Microsoft. Bill Gates · Factual · 7 Dec 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Dec 2021 | Fred Hiatt, long-time Editorial Page Editor of the Washington Post, died on 2021-12-06. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Dec 2021 | Other |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 5 Dec 2021 | People in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump in the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 5 Dec 2021 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 28 Nov 2021 | There is no legal duty for a corporation's board or management to maximize its profits. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | Under FDR, a broad interpretation of the Interstate Commerce Clause effectively repealed the 10th Amendment, leaving states without real rights. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | For the fourth year in a row, the Bezos Day 1 Families Fund is making donations to organizations helping families in need across the U.S. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | Miami has accepted some city coins and Texas is big in Bitcoin mining. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | The newspapers' coverage essentially got President Nixon forced out of office. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 17 Nov 2021 | 22 Walgreens stores are closing in San Francisco because of shoplifting. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 17 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 16 Nov 2021 | In open-ended tasks such as driving, humans outperform AI systems. Gary Marcus · Factual · 16 Nov 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 15 Nov 2021 | Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown. Gary Marcus · Factual · 15 Nov 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | People share values with those close to them in their social network rather than with those close in physical space. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | The concept can be called 'dynamic digital geography', after a term Patri Friedman introduced and used for seasteading. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | Russia switched its ideology in 1991 from communism to nationalism. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | There is no public list of all Facebook and Twitter members. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 11 Nov 2021 | The Twitter and Facebook networks are each bigger than France or Germany combined. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 11 Nov 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Nov 2021 | Eliezer Yudkowsky has often criticized the Federal Reserve for not creating enough money fast enough. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2 Nov 2021 | Jeff Bezos is one of the founding funders of Prince William's Earthshot Prize. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Nov 2021 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 1 Nov 2021 | Aaron Beck, developer of cognitive therapy, has died. Gary Marcus · Factual · 1 Nov 2021 | Other |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Shiite Islam shares many features with Christianity, such as a twelve-based structure, the last of whom is associated with Jesus, and self-flagellation rituals commemorating martyrdom. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Orthodox Christianity has stiffer dietary laws than Western Christianity, with veganism more than 200 days per year. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Economic forecasts work no better than astrology. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | It took about seventeen centuries from the 'eye of the needle' passage in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and theories of social equality. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Darwinian ideas of evolutionary differences within species naturally lead to notions of eugenics, that humans can improve the race by speeding evolution. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | During Covid, some people openly called for geronticide and for letting 'fat people' die. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Christianity was the vehicle by which separation of church and state was accomplished. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Emperor Julian did not realize that paganism was a decentralized, overlapping set of club-like affiliations to gods, and tried to organize it like the Church. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | Nov 2021 | Europe is neither a continent, a language group nor a race, since over 100 million EU citizens are olive-skinned and hardly distinguishable from other Mediterraneans. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Nov 2021 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 31 Oct 2021 | The Prince of Wales has been involved in fighting climate change and protecting the environment for longer than most people. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 31 Oct 2021 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 31 Oct 2021 | Jeff Bezos discussed climate issues with the Prince of Wales on the eve of COP26. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 31 Oct 2021 | Other global risks |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta plans to introduce room customization (own logos and posters) in Horizon Workrooms later in 2021. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company just announced a fundamental change, including looking at and reporting on its business as two segments. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta announced 2D progressive web apps for the Quest Store. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta will bring Messenger calls to virtual reality in 2021. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Facebook is one of the most used products in the history of the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Taking one less work flight a year is probably better for the environment than almost anything else a person can do. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | For the last seven years Meta's research team has worked on a broad array of technologies for next-generation platforms. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg studied Classics, and the word "meta" comes from the Greek word meaning "beyond". Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | The company formerly called Facebook, Inc. is now named Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta will release Cambria as a Quest-compatible, advanced, high-end headset priced at the higher end of the spectrum. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta is working to let people log into Quest with non-Facebook accounts more broadly within the next year. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | When Zuckerberg started Facebook, people mostly typed text on websites. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta's mobile apps are free to use. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Facebook was born on a college campus and on the web. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg's original founder's letter said: "we don't build services to make money; we make money to build better services." Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Ray-Ban Stories are not full AR glasses but let users take pictures and videos, listen to music and take phone calls. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Zuckerberg said that billions of people love the company's services and that hundreds of millions of businesses rely on its tools, and he linked this to its commerce tools being offered at cost or with modest fees. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Oct 2021 | Meta is introducing a new office space in Horizon Home. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Oct 2021 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 28 Oct 2021 | Demis Hassabis gave the Kendrew lecture and visited the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, and the talk has been posted online. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 20 Oct 2021 | GitLab's outcome produced massive financial returns for Khosla Ventures and other investors. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 20 Oct 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 14 Oct 2021 | Soon after an earlier point in time, a Lehman analyst predicted Amazon (AMZN) would go bankrupt. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 14 Oct 2021 | Amazon's stock price declined 90% over the few years following the dot-com era. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Oct 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 13 Oct 2021 | Demis Hassabis was giving the John Kendrew lecture on AlphaFold at the MRC LMB at 2.30pm UK time on 13 October 2021. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 13 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 11 Oct 2021 | Bezos said this was one of many stories telling Amazon all the ways it was going to fail. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 1 Oct 2021 | After many failures and setbacks in gaming, Jeff Bezos says "we" have had a success, and he praises the team for its persistence. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1 Oct 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 30 Sep 2021 | Sam Altman invested in TrialSpark, announced on 2021-09-30. Sam Altman · Factual · 30 Sep 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 23 Sep 2021 | OpenAI published a paper on summarization on 2021-09-23, and an instruction-following model produced a summary of its first part. Sam Altman · Factual · 23 Sep 2021 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 23 Sep 2021 | OpenAI's book-summarizing system combines reinforcement learning from human feedback and recursive task decomposition. Sam Altman · Factual · 23 Sep 2021 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 23 Sep 2021 | OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books. Sam Altman · Factual · 23 Sep 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 14 Sep 2021 | As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 14 Sep 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | Robert Jackson served as an SEC Commissioner between January 2018 and February 2020. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Promise | 19 Aug 2021 | PSTH shareholders will receive $20 per share in cash and one SPARC warrant per share owned, following the cash return. Bill Ackman · Promise · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | Listing SPARC warrants on the NYSE requires an NYSE rule change subject to SEC approval, which is being pursued with the NYSE. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | None of PSTH's directors nor its Sponsor has received or been promised any compensation of any kind. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | Had the UMG transaction closed, the Pershing Square Funds would have invested $1.6 billion in PSTH units on the same terms as IPO investors. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 19 Aug 2021 | The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Bill Ackman · Factual · 19 Aug 2021 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 19 Aug 2021 | The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
“We created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.”
Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, on X 23 September 2021 Post by @sama on X, 2021-09-23 (X)
OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True: as of 2021-09-23, OpenAI had built and described (e.g. in a paper or blog post) a system that produces summaries of whole books, not just passages, and that the published evaluation shows to be reasonable in at least a meaningful share of cases (e.g. human raters judging some summaries comparable to human-written ones). Mostly true: the system existed and summarised entire books, but OpenAI's own results show the summaries were reasonable only in a minority of cases, or a minor detail differs (e.g. it worked only on certain kinds of books). Mixed: a system existed but summarised only long sections or chapters rather than entire books, or its reasonableness is about evenly supported and contradicted. Mostly false: OpenAI had only an early prototype or partial capability that the claim overstates. False: no such OpenAI system existed by that date, or evidence shows its book summaries were generally not reasonable.
Evidence
- Summarizing books with human feedback OpenAI · 23 September 2021 Own record
“Our best model is fine-tuned from GPT‑3 and generates sensible summaries of entire books, sometimes even matching the average quality of human-written summaries: it achieves a 6/7 rating (similar to the average human-written summary) from humans who have read the book 5% of the time and a 5/7 rating 15% of the time.”
- Recursively Summarizing Books with Human Feedback arXiv (ar5iv rendering), OpenAI authors Own record
“Some of these summaries approach human-level quality: over 5% of summaries from the best 175B model were given a score of 6 out of 7, and over 15% were given a 5 out of 7, scores which were also sometimes assigned to human-written summaries (Figure 3).”
- Recursively Summarizing Books with Human Feedback arXiv (ar5iv rendering), OpenAI authors Own record
“However, on average our model summaries are still significantly worse than human-written summaries (Figure 2(a))”
- OpenAI unveils model that can summarize books of any length VentureBeat · 23 September 2021
“OpenAI has developed an AI model that can summarize books of arbitrary length.”
Reasoning
OpenAI's announcement and paper (E1, E2) describe a GPT-3-based model that produces summaries of whole books, and VentureBeat reported independently on the same day that OpenAI had built a model that summarises books of any length (E4). OpenAI's own evaluation shows that only a minority of the summaries came close to human quality. Readers of the book gave a 6/7 rating about 5% of the time and a 5/7 rating about 15% of the time (E1, E2). The paper also says the model's summaries are, on average, significantly worse than human-written ones (E3). This matches the "mostly true" criterion: the system existed and summarised entire books, but its summaries were reasonable only in a minority of cases.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “OpenAI created a system that can generate reasonable summaries of entire books.” (said 23 September 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b59e7b714385, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b59e7b714385
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.