Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“it was $300 billion in student debt in 2000, it's up to $1.7 trillion today”

Peter Thiel, interviewee · 7 February 2020 · The World According to Thiel (Hoover Institution)

US student debt was $300 billion in 2000 and is $1.7 trillion as of early 2020.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2020-02-07. Compare with total outstanding US student loan debt from the Federal Reserve G.19 consumer credit series or NY Fed Household Debt and Credit reports: 2000 (about Q4 2000 or year-average) and the latest figure available in early 2020 (Q4 2019). TRUE: both figures are within about 10% of the claimed values ($270–330B for 2000; $1.53–1.87T for early 2020) on at least one standard series. MOSTLY TRUE: one figure is within 10% and the other within 10–25%. MIXED: one figure is within 10% and the other off by more than 25%, or both are off by 10–25%. MOSTLY FALSE: both are off by more than 10%, at least one by more than 25%, but debt still grew several-fold. FALSE: both figures are far off (more than 25%) or the growth trend is misstated.

Evidence

1. Household Debt and Credit report Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020

   “Outstanding student loan debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter, up by $10 billion from 2019Q3.”

2. Who Borrows for College—and Who Repays? - Liberty Street Economics Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 9 October 2019

   “Student loans neared $1.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2019, a more than fivefold increase since the beginning of 2003.”

3. Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2019: Q4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020

   “Outstanding student loan debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter, up by $10 billion from 2019Q3.”

4. Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2019: Q4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · February 2020

   “Student loan data are not reported prior to 2004 due to uneven reporting”

5. Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume Since 2005 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 11 February 2020

   “Outstanding student debt stood at $1.51 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase of $10 billion from Q3 2019.”

6. What Went Wrong with Federal Student Loans? Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago (working paper by Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis) · May 2024

   “and the total amount they owed more than quadrupled from $387 billion to $1.8 trillion, growing much faster than any other form of household debt.”

Reasoning

The NY Fed puts outstanding student loan debt at $1.51 trillion in Q4 2019 (E1, E3, E5). That is about 11% below the claimed $1.7 trillion, just outside the 10% band. No Federal Reserve G.19 figure was provided, and the criteria allow either standard series. No source gives a figure for 2000. The NY Fed series does not report student loans before 2004 (E4), and E2 only describes a more-than-fivefold rise since early 2003 without stating a 2003 amount. E6 gives a $387 billion starting figure but no year, so the 2000 figure, which the criteria require, cannot be checked against the bands.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “US student debt was $300 billion in 2000 and is $1.7 trillion as of early 2020.” (said 7 February 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b4a36cd0a630, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b4a36cd0a630