Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 283 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry keeps a list of about eighty stocks representing businesses with decent, predictable long-term characteristics. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry earns a paycheck from the Fund only if he achieves a return on investors' capital in excess of the hurdle rate. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The Fund will receive full value in the future for its shares in its largest hotel holding. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 By the Anthropic principle, humanity is in the lead in the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Counting option compensation recognized by the IRS as an expense would cut Adobe's operating income, less investment gains and interest, from $408 million to $51 million. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 Ouch. It’s been a brutal year for many in the capital markets and certainly for Amazon.com shareholders. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's average spend per customer in 2000 was $134, up 19%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 This makes it difficult to be a medium-sized e-commerce company. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry told the room of potential clients that portfolio concentration and illiquidity do not define risk. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 underestimated how difficult it would be for single-category e-commerce companies to achieve the scale necessary to succeed. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 If tubules multiplied neuron complexity a thousandfold, reaching human brain computational capacity would be delayed by only about 9 years under Kurzweil's model of computational growth. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com served 20 million customers in 2000, up from 14 million in 1999. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 There is no evidence for the theory under discussion, and even if it were true, it would only delay replicating brain function by a decade or two. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Science and research methods
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 And we will do so by keeping the customer first. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 by almost any measure, Amazon.com the company is in a stronger position now than at any time in its past. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Own records only Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Bezos said the two investments were made because "we" knew "we" would not ourselves be entering those particular categories any time soon. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Kurzweil's company could not even give away versions of its technology that were two generations old. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com helped partner Toysrus.com sell more than $125 million of toys and video games in Q4 2000. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 In its first period to December 31, 2000, Scion Value Fund acquired no short positions or options contracts. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Scion Capital charges no quarterly asset-based fee and relies entirely on performance-based compensation. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry told a room of about 200 wealthy potential clients that risk is defined by ill-conceived investment, not by volatility. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nonbiological computing will overtake total human biological thinking capacity before 2030. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Brain implants based on distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand human memories a trillionfold and vastly improve sensory, pattern recognition and cognitive abilities. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 the alternative—investing more of our own capital in these companies to keep them afloat—would have been an even bigger mistake. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 The underlying long-term economic growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Expanding intelligence will overcome gravity and other cosmological forces and create the Universe it wants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Human longevity rose by a few days per year in the 18th century, a couple of weeks per year in the 19th, and almost half a year per year as of 2001. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will be feasible within 30 years of 2001, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Over the 25 years to about 2000, the number of high-tech IPO deals rose one hundred fold and dollars invested rose more than one thousand fold. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Jeff Bezos said that "we", in context Amazon.com, still believed that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry holds no personal securities account apart from his investment in Scion Value Fund, and his professional focus is solely that fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Burry's investment principles, applied consistently, will continue to serve the Fund well despite future shocks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 A rarely traded publicly traded real estate stock held by the Fund will recover and ultimately head much higher over time. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, though this may not be the actual limit. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Humanity will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation model estimates quality growth at only 0.5% per year, which overstates inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 It is likely that there are no other civilizations of the kind we would have expected to notice, meaning that our civilization is in the lead. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 According to Kurzweil's model, a civilization at Earth's level of radio transmission takes at most one to two centuries to become a SETI Type II civilization. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Human civilization is the most advanced in the Universe. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The economy, in total and per capita, has been growing exponentially throughout the twentieth century. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's share price was down more than 80% from when Bezos wrote the previous year's shareholder letter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's sales grew to $2.76 billion in 2000 from $1.64 billion in 1999. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Price performance of processing power is doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Technology
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 While we have a tremendous amount of work to do and there can be no guarantees, we have a plan to get there, it’s our top priority, and… Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Scion Value Fund's net asset value rose 6.63% after expenses and contingent fee allocations in its first two months, to December 31, 2000. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 The future performance of one of the Fund's largest positions will have no correlation with the general market or further terrorist attacks. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 Scion Value Fund's gross performance was 8.24% in its first two months, to December 31, 2000. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2001 Because the Scion Value Fund added to several decliners, it was more valuable at the time of the letter than one quarter earlier. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Intelligence will be more powerful than impersonal cosmological forces. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 Physical-world retailers will continue to use technology to reduce costs but not to transform the customer experience. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Before the 22nd century begins, humanity will merge with its computational technology with no clear human-machine distinction. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Citation 2001 Kurzweil says that recent experiments, such as those at the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science, showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all-biological networks are not definitive but strongly suggest that tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Ray Kurzweil · Citation · 2001 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2001 Over the next year or two, and especially five years, the Fund's investment in this position has a very high probability of producing substantial gains. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 The view that many advanced civilizations exist underlies SETI, was Kurzweil's own view until recently, and is the common informed view. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the second half of the 21st century there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully replicating biological mechanisms using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Science and research methods
Own records only Jeff Bezos Prediction 2001 If the price performance of bandwidth keeps doubling about every 9 months, Amazon.com will be able to use 60 times as much bandwidth per customer in 5 years while keeping its bandwidth cost per customer the same. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2001 The general market decline was not the reason for the Scion Value Fund's Q3 2001 decline. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Guidance 2001 Amazon.com has set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2001. Jeff Bezos · Guidance · 2001 Economics and markets
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 2001 Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware prices. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Most of his readers are likely to be alive to see the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality by positioning nanobots near interneuronal connections from the senses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Biological brains will be vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Not checkable Jeff Bezos Not checkable 2001 we now believe its usefulness largely faded away over the last couple of years. Jeff Bezos · Not checkable · 2001
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 As intelligence saturates available matter and energy, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Exponential progress in computation and communication technologies is greatly empowering the individual. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Response at all levels to potentially large-scale lethal self-replicating entities will be vastly more intense than to computer viruses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Damage from self-replicating software is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the benefit received from computers and communication links. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 In the years ahead there will be enormous gains in overcoming cancer and other diseases and in greatly extending human longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The 'immune system' that evolved in response to computer viruses has been largely effective. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Technological advances such as antibiotics and improved sanitation freed us from the prevalence of plagues, as Joy acknowledges. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Kurzweil and Bill Joy have held public and private dialogues on this issue and agree that technology will and should progress and that its dark side needs active concern. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Many long-range forecasts of technical feasibility dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they rest on what the speaker calls the 'intuitive linear' view of technological progress rather than the 'historical exponential view'. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 It will eventually be possible to have nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities, replacing DNA, so the much safer Broadcast Architecture can be used. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The law of accelerating returns is based on a model of diverse technological processes that Kurzweil has developed over the past couple of decades. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, so nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology in at least this way. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Other global risks
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Computer viruses not usually being deadly to humans encourages more people to create and release them. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 Abandoning broad areas of technology will only push them underground, where development continues unimpeded by ethics or regulation. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Substantial portions of humanity still live precarious, fragile existences. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The rate of paradigm shifts is currently doubling approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Ray Kurzweil played a role in bringing the dangers of self-replicating technologies to Bill Joy's attention. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Kurzweil's 'law of accelerating returns' does not rely merely on assuming Moore's Law continues. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 The means will soon exist in a routine biotechnology laboratory to create a pathogen that could be more destructive to humans or other living organisms than an atomic bomb. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Examining technology data in many ways and time scales shows at least double exponential growth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The history of technology shows technological change is at least exponential. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Biotechnology has already produced substantial benefits, including more effective AIDS treatments and human insulin. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 23 Oct 2000 If paradigm shifts keep doubling about every decade, technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what the linear view would require on the order of 20,000 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Thus, while people often overestimate what can be achieved in the short term because there is a tendency to leave out necessary details, we… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Technology will remain a double-edged sword, and the story of the 21st century has not yet been written. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Nanotechnology is simply the inevitable result of a persistent trend toward miniaturization that pervades all of technology. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Although one might properly resist him as an authority, I believe he is correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks of… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 As responsible technologists, our ethics should include such “fine-grained” relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of 21st century technologies. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Even so, I do find fault with Joy’s prescription–halting the advance of technology and the pursuit of knowledge in broad fields such as… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of a responsible and constructive response to genuine perils. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 If Bill and I disagree, it’s on the granularity of relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 1 Jan 2000 Although I am often cast as the technology optimist who counters Joy’s pessimism, I do share his concerns regarding self-replicating… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 1 Jan 2000
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Jeff Bezos

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“We still believe that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online.”

Jeff Bezos, CEO, writing in Amazon shareholder letter 2001 To our shareholders: Ouch. It's been a brutal year (2000 letter) (Amazon IR)

Jeff Bezos said that "we", in context Amazon.com, still believed that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

'May ultimately' has no horizon and is hedged, so it can't be tested.

Cite this claim

Jeff Bezos, “Jeff Bezos said that "we", in context Amazon.com, still believed that some 15% of retail commerce may ultimately move online.” (said 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b2fdb6ba62d5, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b2fdb6ba62d5

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.