2,653 claims · page 17 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 18 Apr 2020 | The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 18 Apr 2020 | Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 31 Mar 2020 | Peter Thiel had warned about biomedical red tape about five years before March 2020. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 31 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 31 Mar 2020 | Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | It took about 10 years for the economy to recover from the Great Recession. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 30 Mar 2020 | When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | Europe has reported low quality masks and tests imported from China. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | Steven Pinker and an epidemiologist were featured as Harvard experts in a Harvard article on the fate of the handshake. Steven Pinker · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Other |
| Mostly false | Jim Cramer | Factual | 30 Mar 2020 | On 2020-03-30 falling oil prices were pushing down the S&P 500, with oil about to fall through $19 a barrel. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 29 Mar 2020 | Vox did not accurately relay what experts were saying at the time; WHO had declared a global emergency in late January 2020, weeks before the Recode handshake piece. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 | Other |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 29 Mar 2020 | The COVID-19 lockdown will not be the last lockdown. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 29 Mar 2020 | The Netherlands considered a herd immunity strategy and its case fatality rate is now 7% as of 2020-03-29. Nate Silver · Factual · 29 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 28 Mar 2020 | The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Nate Silver · Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 28 Mar 2020 | Fear of retaliation may be why many doctors did not go on the record in recent weeks about equipment shortages. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 28 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 24 Mar 2020 | Avoiding terms like 'Chinese Virus' and 'Wuhan virus' is part of a trend within medicine to avoid stigmatizing names for diseases and conditions. Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 20 Mar 2020 | John Ioannidis published a 2005 article that alerted scientists to the replicability crisis. Steven Pinker · Factual · 20 Mar 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | A very large number of people may need to be tested for COVID-19 because there may be more spreaders than assumed. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Testing may need to become extremely routine, effectively mainstreaming genomics. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | If about 100 people in San Francisco had the virus, there would be about a 10 percent chance that a 1,000-person gathering includes an infected person. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | Real-time PCR is not especially fast; 'real time' refers to something different. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 testing involves taking a swab from the patient's mouth or nose, sending it to a lab, and receiving a positive or negative result. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | The pandemic will be a gigantic boost for every diagnostic and medical imaging company in the world, with defense-budget-level spending. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Health screening of travellers will move to real time, within a day or an hour before boarding a flight. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 is spreading uncontrollably on multiple continents, so it meets the definition of a pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | 2020 will establish a lasting new normal, as World War Two did for women in the workforce. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Srinivasan said he thought China would build a nationwide system that constantly sequences and tests its population, then quarantines and vaccinates areas where a virus is rising. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Prediction | 13 Mar 2020 | Work-from-home tools such as home office chat will get really good as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 12 Mar 2020 | The newest lecture in Gen Ed 1066, Rationality, is titled Social and Political Bias. Steven Pinker · Factual · 12 Mar 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | OpenAI, a Khosla investment, is pursuing the goal of building artificial general intelligence (transcribed as 'ADR'). Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 24 Feb 2020 | Square's current business was not part of the plan when Khosla Ventures originally invested; it started as a hardware dongle. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 24 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 12 Feb 2020 | Demis Hassabis received the 2020 Dan David Prize Future Award alongside Prof. Amnon Shashua. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 12 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was started 20 years before 2020. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | For the last 20 years the Gates Foundation has focused on improving global health and strengthening US public education. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Gavi has brought more vaccines and supplies into the market while lowering prices. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Gates said that "we" had known for a while that they wanted to give away the majority of their wealth from Microsoft and use it to make people's lives better. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | The Gates Foundation has spent $53.8 billion over its first 20 years. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | Vaginal gels were not effective at stopping HIV transmission, despite the foundation's optimism that they could prevent infection. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly false | Bill Gates | Factual | 10 Feb 2020 | An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | China's per capita GDP is close to $10,000. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The US and Chinese economies are very deeply connected. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 7 Feb 2020 | The main way middle-class people in the US accumulate capital is by owning real estate, their house. Peter Thiel · Factual · 7 Feb 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | The DeepMind Nature paper takes inspiration from its recent reinforcement learning work to shed new light on how dopamine works in the brain. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | A DeepMind paper on AI and neuroscience was published in Nature on 2020-01-15. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 15 Jan 2020 | DeepMind's AlphaFold work, using deep neural networks to predict protein structures, was published in Nature on 2020-01-15. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 15 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | The DeepMind, Google Health and Cancer Research UK breast cancer screening study was published in Nature on 2020-01-01. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | Starliner launched on December 20, 2019 and reached orbit, but due to software failures it was in the wrong orbit and lacked fuel to reach the ISS. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | During 2019 Waymo started operating what Brooks called a 'taxi service' in Chandler, Arizona, with no human driver in the vehicles. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | Neither Boeing nor SpaceX achieved crewed capsule flight in 2019, after major failures with their systems. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | On 20 April 2019 a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule exploded during a ground test. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2020 | The December 2019 Starliner flight was meant to be the final unmanned test, planned to dock with the ISS and then soft-land on the ground. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2020 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 2020 | In Grantham's opinion, the U.S. trend GDP growth rate has fallen from over 3% a year to at best 1.5%. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2020 | U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 31 Dec 2019 | Roughly two years of monetizing WhatsApp at Facebook's ARPU would yield about $19B in revenue, the amount Facebook paid for WhatsApp. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 31 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 30 Dec 2019 | In 2019 Taleb gave a lecture in Lebanese, "From Ponzi to Localism", at USJ, broadcast on Lebanese TV during the riots. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 30 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 29 Dec 2019 | It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top of the wealth distribution. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 29 Dec 2019 | The richest 1% of people in 2019 are not quite the same individuals as the richest 1% of 2009. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 29 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 27 Dec 2019 | Pinker took on an assignment from the Financial Times to write about what to expect from the 2020s for its end-of-year issue. Steven Pinker · Factual · 27 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 27 Dec 2019 | The latest issue of CIRSD's Horizons magazine includes Roubini's article "The Specter of Deglobalization and the Thucydides Trap". Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 27 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 26 Dec 2019 | The Oculus Quest VR headset has been a sleeper hit commercially. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 26 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly false | Steven Pinker | Factual | 26 Dec 2019 | Enlightenment ideals are rising in the Islamic world, riding a six-decade global wave of liberal values documented by the World Values Survey. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Dec 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 25 Dec 2019 | During 2019 overwhelming DNA evidence emerged that Southern Levantines had DNA indistinguishable from that of Imperial Romans. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 25 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 25 Dec 2019 | A website with a .eth or other crypto domain can now hold a crypto wallet as well as metadata. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 24 Dec 2019 | PostgreSQL natively indexes JSON data via the JSONB type. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 24 Dec 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 24 Dec 2019 | As advertising load rises, customer satisfaction falls. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 24 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen expected China to have an excess-capacity debt crisis, and it did not happen. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Public health research and evidence-based harm reduction policies save tens of thousands of lives every year. Steven Pinker · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Steven Pinker wrote a guest post titled 'NIPS vs. NeurIPS' on Scott Aaronson's blog Shtetl-Optimized. Steven Pinker · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Bloomberg's first tier of readers are those who subscribe to its terminals. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Most podcasts do not offer a transcript. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Tyler Cowen first went to China about 30 years before 2019 and has been there many times since. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Dec 2019 | Gordon Tullock dictated his writing using a tape recorder, not software, and then had someone type it out. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 22 Dec 2019 | Levantine Arabic is not a dialect of Classical Arabic (Fus7a), according to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 22 Dec 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 21 Dec 2019 | The plural of Prius is Priuses, because names take regular plurals, as in the Childs, the Manns and the Maple Leafs. Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2019 | Other |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 27 Nov 2019 | As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 27 Nov 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 20 Nov 2019 | In November 2019 there is a growing disconnect between mediocre global economic growth with rising risks and frothy, exuberant financial markets. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 20 Nov 2019 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Gary Marcus wrote a book called The Birth of the Mind about how a small number of genes builds a complex brain. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | Cyc is not an end-to-end system. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 14 Nov 2019 | AlphaGo is a hybrid system that uses deep learning for pattern recognition and Monte Carlo tree search, a symbolic operation, to search possibilities. Gary Marcus · Factual · 14 Nov 2019 | AI capabilities |
| Mixed | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 6 Nov 2019 | As of November 2019, no application of blockchain, defined as a public, decentralized, permission-less, trustless ledger, works or is widely used despite billions spent on it over a decade. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | A decade before 2019, almost all of the major internet platforms were American. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook is establishing an independent Oversight Board for people to appeal its content decisions. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook works with independent fact checkers to stop viral hoaxes from spreading. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Almost half the world's population now has a voice through the internet. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Laws and regulations around the world that undermine free expression and human rights are increasing. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook does not fact-check political ads. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook's Oversight Board will have power to make final binding decisions on whether content stays up or comes down, which Facebook's team and Zuckerberg cannot overturn. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 17 Oct 2019 | Facebook does not operate Facebook, Instagram or its other services in China, which Zuckerberg gave as partly linked to his question about whether that is the internet we want. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 17 Oct 2019 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 29 Sep 2019 | Margins of error in individual state and national primary polls on support among black or Hispanic voters are often very high, for example around +/- 10%. Nate Silver · Factual · 29 Sep 2019 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 Sep 2019 | Democratic primary delegate allocation is highly proportional, and a candidate eventually needs a majority of delegates to win. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 26 Sep 2019 | In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates. Nate Silver · Factual · 26 Sep 2019 | AI policy and governance |
“It’s not an end to end system.”
Gary Marcus, podcast guest 14 November 2019 EP25 Gary Marcus on Rebooting AI (The Jim Rutt Show)
Cyc is not an end-to-end system.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2019-11-14. An 'end-to-end system' means one trained as a single system mapping raw inputs directly to outputs, typically through learning. True: authoritative descriptions show that Cyc in 2019 was a hand-curated knowledge base with a separate inference engine and other components, and was not trained or operated end-to-end. Mostly true: Cyc was mostly modular and hand-built but had some learned or integrated pipeline elements. Mixed: the evidence is ambiguous about how integrated it was. Mostly false: Cyc worked largely as an integrated end-to-end pipeline, with modest modular parts. False: Cyc was an end-to-end system.
Evidence
- Selected Lexical/Ontology/Knowledge Base Projects METU OCW (course reading, prepared for COG 515 / COGS 523) · 13 October 2025
“It basically consists of a knowledge base and an associated inference engine, along with several other components”
- Guiding Inference with Policy Search Reinforcement Learning AAAI (FLAIRS 2007), by Taylor, Matuszek, Smith and Witbrock (Cycorp, Inc. co-authors) · 2007
“Inference in Cyc is sound but is not always complete: in practice, memory- or time-based cutoffs are typically used to limit very large or long-running queries.”
- Guiding Inference with Policy Search Reinforcement Learning AAAI (FLAIRS 2007), by Taylor, Matuszek, Smith and Witbrock (Cycorp, Inc. co-authors) · 2007
“The RL Tactician provides the inference Engine with an ordered list of tactics. However, the inference Engine may use”
- Cyc: Knowledge-Intensive AI (Chapter 4) - Artificial Dreams Cambridge University Press · 4 April 2008
“The first stage was envisaged as ending in 1994, the second by the late 1990s, and, as Doug Lenat, the main figure behind the project, put it, “Soon after, say by 2001, we planned to have it learning on its own, by automated discovery methods””
Reasoning
E1 describes Cyc as a knowledge base with an associated inference engine and several other components, which is a modular architecture. E4 records that Cyc's original plan was staged, with learning by automated discovery expected only at a later stage, around 2001. E3 shows an experimental 2007 reinforcement-learning component that supplies ranked tactics to the inference engine. It supplies tactics to a separate inference engine rather than making the system trained end-to-end, and no evidence shows it was in use in 2019. On this evidence Cyc was not an end-to-end system.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “Cyc is not an end-to-end system.” (said 14 November 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b128e65af040, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b128e65af040
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.