Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

498 claims · page 3 of 5

498 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By the early 2030s we will be able to get all of our energy from renewable sources. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 In the 2030s humans will be able to connect their brains directly to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Kurzweil estimates that the singularity, which he describes as the point when we will expand our intelligence a million-fold over our unenhanced capability, will take place in 2045. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 The Turing Test will probably be passed before 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Kurzweil said neural nets will be used to master the human body and how we move, and that he thinks this will be quite prevalent within a few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Human brains will be extended to thousands of trillions of connections and become much smarter. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Artificial general intelligence will exist by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Within the next five or six years, robots will do human tasks and be sent into places like burning buildings. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Humans will be able to make themselves smarter by merging with AI. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Kurzweil said that what many people are going into is the way biology is going to be done, and that he would say amazing progress will start in a few years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By 2029, computers will pass the Turing test. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly earlier. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By the 2030s, it won't be a device one has to remember to bring, and people won't know whether the answers their brain seems to give them come from their biological brain or the AI extender. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 People diligent about their health will reach longevity escape velocity by the end of this decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Exponential medical breakthroughs will lead to longevity escape velocity by around 2032. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 There will be a tremendous amount of advances in robotics over the next 10 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Promise Mar 2025 Kurzweil's next book will include a large section on jobs and what people would like to accomplish. Ray Kurzweil · Promise · Mar 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Kurzweil said that now everybody thinks AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 Over the next two years, people will wake up to both the risks and benefits of AI to a much more extreme extent than before. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 In the longer run (perhaps 18 to 24 months), AI may replace coders, particularly at lower levels. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 Amodei put a chance of maybe 70–80% on a very large number of AI systems much smarter than humans at almost everything arriving before the end of the decade, and said his guess was 2026–2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Promise 18 Feb 2025 Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027. Dario Amodei · Promise · 18 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said that, on its current trajectory, he would bet strongly in favor of interpretability becoming a sophisticated and reliable way to diagnose problems in even very advanced AI within 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Robotaxi service, even with remote operators, will not be operating in 50 US cities by 2028. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Humanoid robots will not take away jobs for decades. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 US battery electric cars will not reach 30% of new car sales in 2027, given a Q3 2024 share of 8.9%. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Brooks says he "got suckered by his hype" and that the development he discusses, which the surrounding text links to a "taxi" service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities, is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Brooks said he is quite confident that SpaceX will not fly 400 Starship launches in the four years 2025 through 2028. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 The aircraft type whose last unit was built in 1963 is expected to keep flying until at least 2040, and perhaps longer. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Rodney Brooks said he was quite confident that SpaceX would not fly 400 Starship launches in the four years 2025 through 2028, while saying it was certainly plausible he might live to see 400 Starship launches in some four-year period. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Other
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 The official mid-2027 Starship lunar landing schedule will likely slip by a few years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Brooks thinks that if Waymo cannot make its taxi service succeed within the next two years, the idea of large-scale use of limited ('watered down') autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Brooks assessed that regular weekly suborbital paying-customer flights in 2026 were looking impossible, given the data from 2023 and 2024 and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025 and well into 2026. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Other
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 2025 It would be improbable for all of those outstanding AI problems to be solved within five years. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 2025 Greg Abel will soon replace Warren Buffett, aged 94, as Berkshire CEO and will write the annual letters. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 31 Dec 2024 Musk said he thinks SpaceX has a decent chance of solving a reusable orbital heat shield in 2025 and solving it well in 2026. Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 31 Dec 2024 Within a few years SpaceX direct-to-cell capability will improve by more than an order of magnitude, due to more satellites and better technology. Elon Musk · Prediction · 31 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei said that eyeballing the rate at which capabilities are increasing, which he called totally unscientific, does make him think 'we'll get there' by 2026 or 2027, and he added that lots of things could derail it. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 In the near term, and maybe even in the medium term of 2, 3 or 4 years, Amodei expects humans to keep a huge role and programming as a job not to change, although the nature of programming will change, with less line-by-line writing and more macroscopic work. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Amodei said that probably by 2027 there will be ambitions to build hundred-billion-dollar compute clusters, and that he thinks this will actually happen. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Powerful AI's transformative deployment in the world will take more likely five or 10 years than 50 or 100 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Over the next year or two, even without better models, there would be enormous opportunity to boost productivity by catching mistakes and doing grunt work with current AI models. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Eyeballing the rate at which AI capabilities are increasing makes Amodei think "we'll get there" by 2026 or 2027, though he says there are still worlds where it does not happen in 100 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, whether or not super powerful AI exists, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of AI model instances. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, compute clusters will be large enough to deploy millions of instances of AI models. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Within two to three years, the millions of deployable AI model instances will run faster than humans. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nate Silver Prediction 7 Nov 2024 Utah could become a swing state by 2040. Nate Silver · Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 Other
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2024 By 2045 humans will expand their own intelligence a millionfold. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 18 Sep 2024 It will take Meta about another 10 years to fully work through the cycle before its brand recovers to where it might have been. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Sep 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 The singularity will happen in 2045. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 If solar and wind energy keeps doubling every four years, all of our energy would come from those sources in about 10 years, and it will keep getting cheaper. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 In the 2030s we will be able to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide being created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 AGI will arrive within five years, probably sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 9 Jul 2024 Between 2029 and 2035, scientific progress will give back a full year of life expectancy per year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 9 Jul 2024 Other global risks
Not yet due Steven Pinker Prediction 13 Jun 2024 Commonwealth Fusion Systems' scalable fusion designs will come on line within a decade of June 2024. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 13 Jun 2024 Technology
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 The next major financial crisis will occur within a century, though timing is unknown. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 Over the next century no company will be dramatically better than others in returns. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 5 May 2024 Berkshire's CEO succession is settled for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 4 May 2024 The business he described will still be around 100 years from now. It will not be the best growth business in the world in that period, but it will be essential. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says Berkshire's CEO succession problem is solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 By 2026 to 2028, the compute needed for AI will reach levels the semiconductor industry struggles to supply. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 If a pause in AI development of one year were needed in 2027, it would be feasible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 AI Safety Level ASL-3 capabilities may arrive this year or next (2024 or 2025), and ASL-4 between 2025 and 2028. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 12 Apr 2024 Amodei said he thinks the cost of training AI models may reach $5 billion to $10 billion in 2025 to 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 12 Apr 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Peter Thiel Prediction Apr 2024 AI models will be able to solve all US Math Olympiad problems within three to five years, as people told Thiel. Peter Thiel · Prediction · Apr 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Within five years AI coding ability will be as good as humans'; currently it is not quite as good. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 In five years one large language model will know everything any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Kurzweil said he thinks humanity will reach longevity escape velocity in five years, by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Within a few years AI will be able to emulate the intelligence any human being can have. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 By 2029 scientific progress will give people back a full year of life expectancy for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 After 2029, people will gain back more than a year of longevity per year, effectively going backwards in time regarding longevity. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 29 Mar 2024 Kurzweil predicts that in five years (by 2029) one large language model will know everything that any human being knows. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 29 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 Sam Altman said he expects that by the end of this decade, and possibly somewhat sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people look at and say are really remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Sam Altman Prediction 18 Mar 2024 By the end of this decade, possibly sooner, there will be quite capable AI systems that people find truly remarkable. Sam Altman · Prediction · 18 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 He thinks the next decade will be really interesting for robots. He said the robotics industry has been waiting 10 to 20 years to emerge without really doing so, apart from pre-programmed behaviour. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 LeCun said he thinks that over the next few years there will be many AI systems with planning capability, and that their blueprint will be extremely different from autoregressive LLMs. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Not yet due Yann LeCun Prediction 8 Mar 2024 Building AI systems with world models, planning and hierarchical representations like the human brain will take at least a decade, probably much more. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 8 Mar 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said that DeepMind, started in 2010, was conceived as a 20-year project, which points to about 2030, and that he thinks it is on track. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he would not be surprised if AGI-like systems existed within the next decade. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Regular weekly suborbital tourist flights by 2026 are doubtful. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Humanoid robots will not play any significant role for at least another 25 years from 2024. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2024 Brooks said his estimate that electric vehicles would reach 30% of US car sales by 2027 is very much at risk, since reaching it from 7.2% in 2023 would need two more full doublings while manufacturers are slowing things down. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 26 Dec 2023 AI should be hugely deflationary over the next twenty-five years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 26 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 14 Dec 2023 Digital-first primary and chronic care overseen by human doctors at $5 per month will be possible for every US citizen within a few years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 14 Dec 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Sep 2023 Zuckerberg said he thinks that, maybe by the end of this decade, people could walk into a room and see as many holograms as physical objects. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Control of powerful AI models five years from now will involve substantial involvement of a government or assembly of government bodies. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI models that act like a generally well-educated human in an hour-long conversation could exist within two or three years of August 2023. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted has committed to reusing or recycling all wind turbine blades and solar panels from its global portfolio with immediate effect, and to commissioning only projects with a net-positive biodiversity impact from 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous EBITDA and ROCE targets for 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted reaffirms its target of about 50 GW of renewable capacity in 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous average ROCE target of 11-12% for 2020-2027, now expecting about 15% over 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted's gross investment for 2020-2027, previously expected at about DKK 350 billion, is trending higher at DKK 380 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted now expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2020-2027, versus the previous target of about 12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 7 Jun 2023 Ørsted is on track to reach its science-based targets of 98% carbon emissions reductions (scopes 1 and 2) in 2025 and net-zero for the full value chain in 2040. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 30 Mar 2023 If half of today's physicists studied the inside of transformer networks, in 30-40 years we would probably have a pretty good understanding of them. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 30 Mar 2023 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“So at that rate, in about 10 years, we’ll be getting all of our energy that way, and it’ll keep getting cheaper.”

Ray Kurzweil, futurist, interviewee 9 July 2024 'The Singularity is Nearer,' Says Futurist Ray Kurzweil (Science Friday)

If solar and wind energy keeps doubling every four years, all of our energy would come from those sources in about 10 years, and it will keep getting cheaper.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2034 is after 2026-10-30

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “If solar and wind energy keeps doubling every four years, all of our energy would come from those sources in about 10 years, and it will keep getting cheaper.” (said 9 July 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_9a6550e9dccc, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9a6550e9dccc

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.