Claims

Prediction · Other global risks

“ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity: 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger · 25 January 2016 · 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

Judged at 31 December 2016. 'State entity' means ISIS held and governed territory, such as cities with an administration. True: by the end of 2016 ISIS held no meaningful territory under its own governance. Mostly true: it held only scattered small rural pockets with no city under its administration. Mostly false: it had lost most of its territory, but still held and governed at least one significant city. False: it still held and governed substantial territory including major cities (for example Raqqa or Mosul) at the end of 2016.

Evidence

1. The Jihadi Threat 2: Whither the Islamic State? Wilson Center · 8 December 2016

   “The loss of Mosul—which accounts for about 11 percent of Iraq’s population—will eliminate all major population centers under ISIS control in Iraq.”

2. Islamic State group lost quarter of its territory in 2016: Monitor Middle East Eye · 19 January 2017

   “In Mosul - Iraq's second city, which has been under IS control since 2014 - Iraqi government forces had "made steady progress" in eastern districts”

3. II. The Islamic State in 2016: a failing 'caliphate' but a growing transnational threat? SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) · 23 October 2016

   “As of the end of 2016, IS still controlled about 60 per cent of Syria’s oil production.”

4. Middle Eastern Terror in Flux: Mosul after Daesh, Daesh after Raqqa - FIIA - Finnish Institute of International Affairs Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) · 24 January 2017

   “Daesh now risks losing the last urban centres that remain under its sway: Al-Bab, Raqqa, and at a later stage possibly Deir ez-Zor.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows ISIS still held and governed substantial territory, including major cities, at the end of 2016. A monitor report from January 2017 describes Mosul as under IS control since 2014, with Iraqi forces only advancing through its eastern districts (E2). A FIIA analysis from late January 2017 names Al-Bab, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor as urban centres still under its sway (E4). SIPRI reports that as of the end of 2016, IS still controlled about 60 per cent of Syria's oil production (E3). Under the criteria, this resolves the prediction as false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_988eb514716c, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_988eb514716c