Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

340 claims · page 3 of 4

340 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Technology
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Mostly true Ørsted Prediction 2017 With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Bill Ackman Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Other global risks
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved false Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other global risks

“Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex)

Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The 80% is only Scott's confidence. True: in 2016 the conflict in eastern Ukraine neither grew into all-out war (open, large-scale conventional fighting between Ukraine and Russia, or a major new offensive taking large amounts of territory) nor reached a settlement that actually ended it (a lasting peace deal that is carried out, or a complete return of the territory). A frozen conflict with low-level ceasefire violations counts as true. False: either all-out war or a clear settlement happened in 2016. Mostly false: there was a major escalation or a breakthrough agreement that came close to either outcome without quite reaching it.

Evidence

  1. 'Difficult' Ukraine talks end with no breakthrough Deutsche Welle (DW) · 29 November 2016
    “There weren't any breakthroughs today. The Minsk agreements are stalled - we're not managing to agree on the sequence of steps,”
  2. S-RM: New talks on Ukraine bring little hope for peace Daily Maverick (opinion piece by S-RM analyst Saif Islam) · 26 October 2016
    “Ceasefire violations have become the norm, and all parties appear comfortable with this status quo”
  3. S-RM: New talks on Ukraine bring little hope for peace Daily Maverick (opinion piece by S-RM analyst Saif Islam) · 26 October 2016
    “While an agreement was reportedly reached to establish a new road map to implement the Minsk peace deal, there were no major breakthroughs, a widely expected outcome.”
  4. War in Eastern Ukraine Wikipedia
    “Donbas remained a war zone, with dozens killed monthly.”

Reasoning

Independent reporting from late 2016 shows the conflict stayed unresolved. On 2016-11-29, DW reported that talks ended with no breakthrough and that the Minsk agreements had stalled (E1). An October 2016 analysis described ceasefire violations as "the norm" and a status quo that all parties seemed comfortable with, with no major breakthroughs (E2, E3). A Wikipedia summary, not dated to 2016, says Donbas remained a war zone, with dozens killed each month (E4). That fits the frozen conflict with low-level violations that the criteria count as true, and no evidence points to all-out war or a settlement, though the dated reporting stops at the end of November.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_97ca272bbdfa, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_97ca272bbdfa

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.