Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 6 Oct 2011 War is in decline all over the world, as argued in Joshua Goldstein's Winning the War on War. Steven Pinker · Factual · 6 Oct 2011 Other global risks
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 6 Oct 2011 Steven Pinker is a professor who teaches psychology classes and conducts research on language and the human mind. Steven Pinker · Factual · 6 Oct 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 6 Oct 2011 Until recently, people brought whole families to watch heretics being burned, broken on the wheel, or disemboweled. Steven Pinker · Factual · 6 Oct 2011 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 The novel Eyes of God is about intrigue and Indonesia. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 Eyes of God is a novel by Philip Babcock, an economist at UC Santa Barbara. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 John Blundell's Ladies of Liberty contains biographical sketches of libertarian and libertarian-themed women in U.S. history. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual Oct 2011 Ladies of Liberty includes Rose Wilder Lane, Isabel Patterson, Rose Friedman, Jane Jacobs and others. Tyler Cowen · Factual · Oct 2011 Other
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, Amazon was the world's largest bookseller. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Skype, the fastest growing telecom company, was just bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, Netflix was the largest video service by number of subscribers. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved false Marc Andreessen Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual 20 Aug 2011 Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some investment managers among the mega-rich earn billions of dollars from their work. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some mega-rich investment managers who earn billions are allowed to classify their income as carried interest, which is taxed at a 15 percent rate. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 15 Aug 2011 Holders of stock index futures for 10 minutes have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they were long-term investors. Warren Buffett · Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments. Bill Ackman · Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Credit derivatives on an underlying asset could be worth multiple orders of magnitude more than the asset because all asset-backed derivatives settled in cash. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry wrote a paper in 1994, as a summer extern at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, on why rehabilitation medicine was doing well. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry decided to short the mortgage market, intending to profit from its collapse. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry left medicine with $145,000 in debt and no assets under management when starting Scion Capital. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Fed Chairman Bernanke says the Federal Reserve is not printing money. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Under QE II, the Federal Reserve monetizes roughly $7 to $8 billion of Treasuries each day, according to a daily Fed email. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Other
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 After Burry criticized index funds and hyperlinked to Vanguard on his website, Vanguard's attorneys told him to cease and desist. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Burry's proposed "Milton's Opus" never got off the ground, after his investors met it with scepticism and outside institutions he approached went off to do the idea themselves. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Of the people at troubled major institutions and relevant government departments whose insight about the crisis matched or exceeded Burry's, none was in the top job. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Wall Street firms all used one single risk model in the mid-2000s. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Secretary Paulson now claims that even had he known what was going to happen, he could not have done anything about it. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon built its storage solutions by leaning heavily on core principles from distributed systems and database research. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Science and research methods
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Building a product detail page on Amazon.com calls on between 200 and 300 services. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mixed Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 AWS Simple Storage Service, Elastic Block Store and SimpleDB derive their basic architecture from unique Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon developed several purpose-built persistence solutions, including its own key-value store and single table store. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon applied service-oriented architecture long before SOA became an industry buzzword. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 The storage systems Amazon has pioneered relax synchronization requirements for updates that need to be disseminated to large numbers of replicas, which lets them survive under the harshest performance and availability conditions. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Available bandwidth, disk space and processing power are increasing extraordinarily and continue to get cheaper quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's technologies are almost exclusively implemented as services with hardened interfaces as the only access to functionality. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's storage system implementations are based on eventual consistency. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Service-oriented architecture is the fundamental building abstraction for Amazon technologies. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2011 Amazon's e-commerce platform is a federation of hundreds of software services covering recommendations, order fulfillment and inventory tracking. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2011 Technology
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 23 Dec 2010 Khosla's portfolio is developing a new engine type that is 50 percent more efficient at less cost than today's engines. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 Public sentiment turned very sour over the three to five months before September 2010. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 The course gave 23 students a crash course in subjects useful for running their small businesses. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak. Warren Buffett · Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jul 2010 Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jul 2010 Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jul 2010 A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets and causes global sea levels to rise. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Resolved false Ray Dalio Prediction Jun 2010 The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual Jun 2010 Government intervention and quantitative easing after 2008 did not produce new financial assets. Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual Jun 2010 As of mid-2010, emerging-market economies have not reached their debt limits. Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual Jun 2010 There has been very little new lending following the 2008 crisis government intervention, as of mid-2010. Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 After the crisis became clear in early 2007, the Fed chairman, Treasury secretary, president and senior members of Congress repeatedly underestimated its severity. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry deliberately avoided Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns as swap counterparties. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry shut down Scion Capital in 2008. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry's prediction of a mortgage market meltdown was based on his research into the residential mortgage market and mortgage-backed securities. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry began worrying about the housing market in 2003, when lenders resurrected interest-only mortgages and loosened credit standards. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 By mid-2005 Michael Burry bought credit default swaps on billions of dollars of subprime mortgage-backed securities and bonds of financial companies. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Goldman Sachs and other derivatives dealers did not demand daily collateral settlement from AAA-rated AIG. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry demanded daily collateral settlement on his swaps, with cash posted to Scion's account the next day if positions moved in its favor. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 Michael Burry used six counterparties for his credit default swaps to limit exposure to any one of them. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 6 Apr 2010 By December 2005, subprime mortgages issued six months earlier were already showing atypically high delinquency rates. Michael Burry · Factual · 6 Apr 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 7 Jan 2010 GiveWell last laid out a business plan in November 2008. GiveWell · Factual · 7 Jan 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Promise 7 Jan 2010 GiveWell will examine itself critically over the coming weeks and share its self-review in near real time on its blog. GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Promise 7 Jan 2010 GiveWell intends to discuss, for each of its self-review questions, its progress since November 2008, where it stands today relative to success, and what it can do to improve. GiveWell · Promise · 7 Jan 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 2010 In 2006 Warren Buffett committed to gradually give all his Berkshire Hathaway stock to philanthropic foundations. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Per-capita CO2 emissions for each American are about 20 tons per year. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 The world population is 6.8 billion people. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Almost every way of making electricity today, except the emerging renewables and nuclear, emits CO2. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2010 In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 Each stage of a ConvNet is composed of a filter bank, some non-linearities, and feature pooling layers. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 The idea behind multi-stage Hubel-Wiesel architectures is rooted in Hubel and Wiesel's 1962 work on the cat's primary visual cortex. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 Science and research methods
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Global CO2 emissions have been constantly rising, only flattened somewhat by economic changes. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 CO2 is warming the planet. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 2010 Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates are asking hundreds of rich Americans to pledge at least 50% of their wealth to charity. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2010 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 A face detection application on the CNP system was demonstrated achieving 10 fps on VGA images. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Yann LeCun Factual 2010 ConvNets have been successfully deployed in many commercial applications from OCR to video surveillance, but require large amounts of labeled training samples. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 Convolutional Networks are a biologically inspired trainable architecture that can learn invariant features. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Burning coal cannot bring CO2 emissions to zero. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2010 The IPCC report does not necessarily represent the worst case for climate change. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2010 In many problems labeled data is scarce whereas unlabeled data is abundant. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2010 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2010 Today's nuclear reactors are constantly refueled, requiring many people and controls that can go wrong. Bill Gates · Factual · 2010 Technology
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Factual Their own work or organisation

“I put my thoughts about stocks and markets up on a web site I was running during the latter half of the 90s.”

Michael Burry, lecture speaker 5 April 2011 Transcript of Michael Burry's talk, Missteps to Mayhem (Vanderbilt News)

Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: archived web pages, The Big Short, or news profiles show that Burry ran a website or message board (e.g. on Silicon Investor or his own site) in roughly 1996-1999 where he posted his investing views on stocks and markets. Mostly true: confirmed, but the timing is slightly off (e.g. it began in 1995 or ran into 2000), or it was a forum section rather than his own site. Mixed: he posted investing views online in that period, but did not run the venue himself, in a material way. Mostly false: the online activity was substantially later or different in nature. False: the evidence shows no such website or posting.

Evidence

  1. Betting on the Blind Side Vanity Fair · 1 April 2010
    “Once he figured out he had nothing more to learn from the crowd on his thread, he quit it to create what later would be called a blog but at the time was just a weird form of communication.”
  2. Betting on the Blind Side Vanity Fair · 1 April 2010
    “On his blog he posted his stock-market trades and his arguments for making the trades.”
  3. Mike Burry’s Silicon Investor “Value Investing” thread Greenbackd · 3 March 2010
    “Michael Burry’s blog, http://www.valuestocks.net, seems to be lost to the sands of time, but Burry’s techstocks.com “Value Investing” thread (now Silicon Investor) still exists.”
  4. Burry Waterboy Stocks (Substack) · 16 November 2025
    “Burry joined the site on April 21st, 1996, and last posted on January 21, 2001, with a total of 3,277 posts.”

Reasoning

Michael Lewis's Vanity Fair excerpt says Burry left his message-board thread to start what would later be called a blog, and that he posted his stock trades and his reasons for them there (E1, E2). Greenbackd names that blog as valuestocks.net and says Burry's "Value Investing" thread on techstocks.com, later Silicon Investor, still exists (E3). A later write-up dates his Silicon Investor posting from April 1996 to January 2001 (E4). None of the quoted sources gives the blog's own dates, so placing it in the late 1990s rests on the thread's dates, and the forum activity ran into 2001. That is why this is mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Burry ran a website during the latter half of the 1990s on which he posted his thoughts about stocks and markets.” (said 5 April 2011). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_92ba6cbd8231, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_92ba6cbd8231

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.