Claims

Prediction · AI timelines and forecasting · Political

“In a note to my clients this week I made a wide out-of-consensus call that the RN - Le Pen’s party - will win an absolute majority in the current French parliamentary elections (60% probability for this baseline scenario)”

Nouriel Roubini, writing on X · 30 June 2024 · Post by @Nouriel on X, 2024-06-30 (X)

The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

Judge on the final results of the June–July 2024 French legislative elections (second round on 7 July 2024). An absolute majority means at least 289 of the 577 National Assembly seats. The 60% figure was his baseline probability, but the claim is judged on whether that baseline outcome happened. TRUE: the RN alone won 289 seats or more. MOSTLY TRUE: the RN alone fell short, but the RN together with its formally allied candidates (for example Ciotti's LR faction), counted as one bloc in official results, reached 289 or more. MOSTLY FALSE: neither the RN nor its bloc reached 289, but the RN bloc won the most seats of any bloc. FALSE: the RN bloc neither reached 289 seats nor won the most seats.

Evidence

1. Leftist surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock | CNN CNN · 7 July 2024

   “Despite leading after the first round of votes, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies won 143 seats.”

2. Leftist surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock | CNN CNN · 7 July 2024

   “In a surprise result, the New Popular Front (NFP) – a cluster of several parties ranging from the far-left France Unbowed party to the more moderate Socialists and the Ecologists – won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group but short of the 289 required for an absolute majority, according to the French Interior Ministry.”

3. 2024 French legislative election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “On the basis of the final results published by the Ministry of the Interior and candidate classifications of Le Monde, the New Popular Front obtained 182 seats, compared to Ensemble with 168, RN-supported candidates with 143, and 45 for LR”

4. 2024 French legislative election - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “Includes elected candidates jointly invested by the Ciotti-led faction of the LR and backed by the RN (Union of the Far-Right, UXD), which won 17 out of total 142 seats won by RN-led alliance.”

Reasoning

CNN reports that the RN and its allies won 143 seats (E1). The New Popular Front won 182 seats and became the largest group, according to the Interior Ministry (E2). Wikipedia's account of the final Interior Ministry results puts RN-supported candidates at 143 seats, behind the NFP's 182 and Ensemble's 168 (E3); a table note says the RN-led alliance, including 17 Ciotti-faction seats, won 142 seats in total (E4). The RN bloc therefore fell far short of 289 seats and did not win the most seats, which meets the criteria for false.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.” (said 30 June 2024). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_86ef7a825791, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_86ef7a825791