Claims

Factual · Biosecurity

“An easier approach would be to modify a conventional flu virus — with the 8 unique (and now published) genes of the year 1918 killer virus.”

Kurzweil and Joy, op-ed authors · October 2005 · A recipe for destruction (NYT op-ed with Bill Joy) (Kurzweil Library / NYT)

An easier approach than synthesis from scratch would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the 8 published genes of the 1918 virus.

Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of October 2005. TRUE: virology sources confirm both components — (a) all 8 gene segments of the 1918 influenza virus had been sequenced and published by October 2005, and (b) inserting one or more of those published 1918 genes into a conventional/contemporary influenza virus background by reverse genetics was technically easier than synthesising the whole 1918 virus de novo. MOSTLY TRUE: both hold but a minor detail is off (e.g. the number of segments described, or publication date of the final segment slightly different) while the substantive comparison stands. MIXED: the 8 genes were published but expert sources disagree on whether the modification route is easier than full synthesis. MOSTLY FALSE: the gene-substitution route existed but was not easier (comparable or harder difficulty), so the claim overstates a real technique. FALSE: evidence shows the 1918 genome's 8 segments were not all published as of October 2005, or that reassortant/reverse-genetics modification of a conventional flu virus with 1918 genes was not possible at that time.

Reasoning

Research or judging failed: research_plan:c_810a7e545e15: refusal

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “An easier approach than synthesis from scratch would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the 8 published genes of the 1918 virus.” (said October 2005). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_810a7e545e15, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_810a7e545e15