ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“An easier approach would be to modify a conventional flu virus — with the 8 unique (and now published) genes of the year 1918 killer virus.”

Kurzweil and Joy, op-ed authors October 2005 A recipe for destruction (NYT op-ed with Bill Joy) (Kurzweil Library / NYT) archived copy

Factual Biosecurity

An easier approach than synthesis from scratch would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the 8 published genes of the 1918 virus.

Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of October 2005. TRUE: virology sources confirm both components — (a) all 8 gene segments of the 1918 influenza virus had been sequenced and published by October 2005, and (b) inserting one or more of those published 1918 genes into a conventional/contemporary influenza virus background by reverse genetics was technically easier than synthesising the whole 1918 virus de novo. MOSTLY TRUE: both hold but a minor detail is off (e.g. the number of segments described, or publication date of the final segment slightly different) while the substantive comparison stands. MIXED: the 8 genes were published but expert sources disagree on whether the modification route is easier than full synthesis. MOSTLY FALSE: the gene-substitution route existed but was not easier (comparable or harder difficulty), so the claim overstates a real technique. FALSE: evidence shows the 1918 genome's 8 segments were not all published as of October 2005, or that reassortant/reverse-genetics modification of a conventional flu virus with 1918 genes was not possible at that time.

Set before the research began.

Reasoning

Research or judging failed: research_plan:c_810a7e545e15: refusal

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “An easier approach than synthesis from scratch would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the 8 published genes of the 1918 virus.” (said October 2005). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_810a7e545e15, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_810a7e545e15

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

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    “Moderna, they actually gathered several billion different possibilities for what could cause COVID.”

    Moderna gathered several billion possibilities for what could cause COVID and used simulated trials with AI to narrow them.

  2. Resolved true Factual April 2022
    “The US government has a plan to actually create new vaccines within a few months to three months.”

    The US government has a plan to create new vaccines within a few months to three months.

  3. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “US researchers are now testing this optimized flu vaccine on human subjects.”

    As of May 2020, US researchers are testing the Flinders-optimized flu vaccine on human subjects.

  4. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “created a turbo-charged flu vaccine in part by using a biology simulator that used AI to find drugs that activate the human immune system.”

    In 2019 researchers at Flinders University in Adelaide created a turbo-charged flu vaccine partly using an AI biology simulator that found drugs activating the human immune system.

  5. Resolved true Factual October 2005
    “There are promising new technologies, like RNA interference, that could be harnessed.”

    New technologies such as RNA interference are promising and could be harnessed against viral threats.

All of them

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