Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 64 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 In 2006 returns for many hedge funds are below those of safe Treasury bills. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Sep 2006 US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jim Cramer Factual 15 Aug 2006 The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing. Jim Cramer · Factual · 15 Aug 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 Daniel Drezner offered commentary on the possibility of a US attack on Iran. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 TradeSports implied probabilities of a US or Israeli attack on Iran are higher than they were a few weeks before April 2006. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before March 2007 was about 25 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 Matt Yglesias linked to commentators who see a US attack on Iran as imminent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before December 2006 was about 20 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 US public noise to scare Iran will not work, and the US might then feel it must attack to preserve credibility. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 Iranians might regard a secret US signal as a trick and ignore it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry stated that Scion Capital negotiated very favorable ISDA agreements with all eight of its credit derivatives counterparties. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 The Scion funds carry credit default swaps on subprime mortgage-backed securities with $1.687 billion in notional value. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2006 Most mortgages underlying the tranches Scion is short have not yet reached their interest rate reset, the period of highest risk. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss with G_W(X)=W^T X and a ||W||^2 regularizer gives the linear support vector machine. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss systematically chooses the most offending incorrect answer as the one whose energy is pulled up. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The generalized perceptron loss is always positive because its second term is a lower bound on its first term. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 Science and research methods
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Support vector Markov models, max-margin Markov networks and conditional random fields are all sequence modeling systems that use linearly parameterized energy factors. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry spends nearly all his time on stocks and other long-oriented analysis rather than shorts. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2006 The M9 tranche of the PPSI deal is just under $6 million, less than 1% of the original deal size. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 2006 Park Place Securities Incorporated (PPSI) is the depositor in the PPSI 2005-WLL1 mortgage deal. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 2006 Because home prices rose steadily for a long time, troubled homeowners were able to refinance, take cash out and often reduce monthly payments at the same time, which reduced foreclosure rates. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Burry expected that, in the worst case, his fund's mortgage short would fully amortize to nil value over the next three years, at an average annual cost of carry of roughly six percent of current assets under management. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Inference algorithms in energy-based learning often give only approximate answers or do not guarantee finding the global energy minimum. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 The Funds held quite a bit of cash in 2006, something that last occurred in the 2001-2002 era. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The LVQ2 loss is a continuous approximation of the number of classification errors. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Burry expected the mortgage pools shorted by the Scion funds to see maximum stress during the latter half of 2007. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 The Scion Funds have roughly a 12% allocation in Asia, lower than in the past. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Each NLL iteration involves considerably more work because pushing up every incorrect answer is expensive when the second term's derivative has no analytical form. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry never expected Scion's mortgage short to pay off within one year. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Most of the subprime mortgage pools Scion shorted will likely see maximum foreclosures a little over two years into the life of the pool. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2006 The Scion Funds hold roughly $2 million in put options focused on the Russell 2000 Index. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2006 Loss severities on foreclosed subprime mortgages rose during 2006 from 10-15% at the start of the year to 30-45% recently. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry said the positions "we" are short are now effectively undercollateralized by performing mortgages, pointing to ratios of delinquent, bankrupt, foreclosed and REO loans to total credit support, several of which were above one. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2006 There exists at least one point in HP1 at which the loss is less than at all points in HP2. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 In a securitization, each trust is divided into tranches, each defined and rated by the degree of subordination protecting its principal from loss. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Michael Burry Prediction 2006 The fall in US national housing prices in 2006 will not be a one-year blip; prices will keep falling beyond 2006. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jim Cramer Factual 16 Dec 2005 Cramer said he received a handwritten letter from President Bok apologizing on behalf of the University for the travesty that was his graduation. Jim Cramer · Factual · 16 Dec 2005 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jim Cramer Factual 16 Dec 2005 In his last Crimson article, Cramer wrote that Alan Heimert's words to the Faculty were rooted more in fiction than in fact. Jim Cramer · Factual · 16 Dec 2005 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Jim Cramer Factual 16 Dec 2005 For twenty years of his career Cramer worked only with people who were incredibly rich. Jim Cramer · Factual · 16 Dec 2005 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 New technologies such as RNA interference are promising and could be harnessed against viral threats. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 Analyses have shown that detonating an atomic bomb in a modern city could kill as many as 1 million people. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Other global risks
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 In a 2005 New York Times opinion piece, Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy discussed serious decisions facing those who control powerful technological and scientific data, know-how and instrumentation. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 We may be lucky and succeed in developing defenses against killer flu viruses before they are needed. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 Kurzweil said he believes the future will evolve in a positive way as humanity remains diligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 Everything is getting smarter, faster and more capable, as Kurzweil predicted in his books. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 AI capabilities
Research failed Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 Creating and releasing the 1918 flu virus from its published genetic data would be easier than building and detonating an atomic bomb from its design, since no rare materials like plutonium or enriched uranium are needed. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Research failed Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 An easier approach than synthesis from scratch would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the 8 published genes of the 1918 virus. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Oct 2005 Release of a highly communicable, deadly biological virus could kill tens of millions of people, with some estimates in the hundreds of millions. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Research failed Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 Synthesizing the 1918 flu virus from scratch would be difficult but far from impossible. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual Apr 2005 As far back as April 2005, Burry theorized in emails to his staff that a run on AIG would appear as collateral calls following a ratings downgrade. Michael Burry · Factual · Apr 2005 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Composer Elliott Carter was still composing prolifically beyond his ninetieth birthday. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Elliott Carter's late short pieces are usually written for a very small number of instruments. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Over the ten years to 2004, Elliott Carter's reputation rose sharply. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 21 Mar 2004 War and other disruptions appear to damage capital income more than labor income. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 21 Mar 2004 Economics and markets
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Lead artist Brian Gillies wanted a shiny "atomic age" 1960s style for Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, the more the player gloats, the more notoriety is gained, and notoriety is key to progress. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Delivered on time Demis Hassabis Promise 2004 Hassabis said Elixir was confident that players would get their hands on Evil Genius in fall 2004. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 2004 Other
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Hassabis wrote the note "Be Dr. No" in his design notebook as a reminder to himself of a high concept he described as promising. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Own records only Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 The Elixir team has spent just over two years working full time on Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Own records only Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Hassabis acts as a sounding board on difficult design decisions for Evil Genius and safeguards its original vision. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Demis Hassabis first conceived the kernel of the idea for Evil Genius before Elixir Studios had started. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2004 By fall 2004 Countrywide Financial reported subprime mortgage originations up 158% year over year despite a 24% decline in overall originations, as Burry noted to investors. Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 Economics and markets
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, more gloating increases the chance that a captured agent turns the tables and escapes. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Evil Genius was influenced by non-spy classics such as Enter the Dragon and Flash Gordon. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2004 Since earlier in 2004, the Scion Funds have held long equity and distressed debt investments, domestic and foreign, positioned to benefit from higher oil prices. Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The 10^3-per-decade growth rate of computational capacity is conservative because the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said it is conservative to project that within 30 decades (300 years) current computational capacities would be multiplied by a factor of 10^90, exceeding Seth Lloyd's estimate of 10^90 bits in the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will be able to reverse-engineer the human brain because its complexity is manageable. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 When the event referred to happens again (apparently a threat from something that could be blasted "out of the sky"), human technology will be quite sufficient to deal with it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will have the scanning data and neuron models to build a model of the principles of operation of the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil has developed these models for a few decades and made many predictions about intelligent machines in the 1980s. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil conjectured that the other dimensions Alan and Paul talked about may offer shortcuts for reaching other parts of the universe faster. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Our intelligence may be able to reach the whole universe (about 10^80 particles, ~10^90 bits per Seth Lloyd) without being limited by the speed of light. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Intelligence will completely saturate the earth and solar system sometime in the 22nd century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will see a future cosmic impact coming and will deal with it, sending a probe to destroy the object. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 We do not see extraterrestrial civilizations and have no indication of their existence, a challenge known as the Fermi paradox. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light limit could be overcome, within 300 years human-origin intelligence would saturate the whole universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Routine compression of the genome at about 30 to 1 gives about 23 million bytes, smaller than Microsoft Word, describing the brain's initial conditions. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil predicted that, at a point he did not specify in the quoted passage, intelligence will have a profound effect on the cosmological destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said he thinks the SETI project will fail to find extraterrestrial intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The spread of our intelligence through the universe, which he describes as slow and governed by the speed of light, will begin within 200 years of 2002. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The power of intelligence will grow exponentially and ultimately be powerful enough to change the destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 There is progress in software, though its doubling factor is much slower than hardware's. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI capabilities
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Ray Kurzweil

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Factual Biosecurity

“it would be easier to create + release this highly destructive virus from the genetic data than it would be to build + detonate an atomic bomb given only its design”

Kurzweil and Joy, op-ed authors October 2005 A recipe for destruction (NYT op-ed with Bill Joy) (Kurzweil Library / NYT)

Creating and releasing the 1918 flu virus from its published genetic data would be easier than building and detonating an atomic bomb from its design, since no rare materials like plutonium or enriched uranium are needed.

Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.

What would count as true or false

Judge on expert biosecurity and nonproliferation assessments current as of October 2005. True: expert assessments agreed that recreating and releasing the 1918 flu virus from its published sequence was easier than building and detonating a nuclear weapon from its design, partly because no plutonium or enriched uranium is needed. Mostly true: experts broadly agreed, with minor caveats. Mixed: expert opinion was split. Mostly false: the premise that no rare materials are needed is true, but experts held that the comparison was unproven or overstated, for example because synthesis required substantial tacit skill. False: expert evidence showed the virus route to be clearly harder.

Reasoning

Research or judging failed: research_plan:c_7a9059a96abe: refusal

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Creating and releasing the 1918 flu virus from its published genetic data would be easier than building and detonating an atomic bomb from its design, since no rare materials like plutonium or enriched uranium are needed.” (said October 2005). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_7a9059a96abe, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7a9059a96abe

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.