Claims

Factual · Science and research methods

“the scanning has doubled in speed every year, and actually most of the work was done in the last year of the project.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author · 12 December 2002 · The Intelligent Universe (Kurzweil Library)

Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2002-12-12. The claim has two parts: (a) sequencing throughput (base pairs per year, or cost per base pair) roughly doubled every year during the Human Genome Project (1990 to about 2000–2003); (b) most of the sequencing was done in the project's final year. True: both hold roughly, meaning annual output grew by about 2x per year (anything from about 1.7x to 2.5x per year on average), and the largest single share (more than half) of the sequence was produced in the last year or so before the draft or final completion. Mostly true: both are roughly right, but one is somewhat imprecise, for example most of the work fell in the last two years, or doubling was a bit slower than yearly. Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly does not. Mostly false: speed rose fast but far slower than yearly doubling, and the work was not concentrated in the last year, though there was a late surge. False: the records show neither pattern.

Evidence

1. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “the plan called for new and improved sequencing technologies that could increase the sequencing capacity from 90 Mb per year at about $.50 per base to 500 Mb per year at no more than $.25 per base.”

2. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “However, with only three percent of the human genome sequenced, sequencing costs hovering at $.40/base, and the desired high output not yet achieved by the sequencing centers, and about $1.8 billion spent”

3. New Center for Bioinformatics and Computational Genomics at NERSC Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · 29 January 1999

   “The current rate of overall sequencing of base pairs is 150 million base pairs per year. However, to fully sequence the three billion base pairs in the human genome by 2003, the participating centers will need to sequence two million per day.”

4. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “The HGP draft genome sequence covered about 94 percent of the genome, with about 25 percent in the finished form already attained for chromosomes 21 and 22.”

5. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “With only six percent of the human genome sequence completed, the plan called for new and improved sequencing technologies that could increase the sequencing capacity from 90 Mb per year at about $.50 per base to 500 Mb per year at no more than $.25 per base.”

6. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “This change reflected improved output of the new model of automated sequencing machines, diminished sequencing costs at $.20 to $.30 per base, and the desire to speed up the release of medically relevant data.”

7. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “The HGP had not met its previous year's goal of a working draft covering 90 percent of the genome.”

8. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy · 26 November 2008

   “However, with only three percent of the human genome sequenced, sequencing costs hovering at $.40/base, and the desired high output not yet achieved by the sequencing centers, and about $1.8 billion spent, doubts existed about whether the HGP’s target date of 2005 could be met.”

9. Genomics: what is realistically achievable? Genome Biology (BMC), editorial by Ross Overbeek · 28 July 2000

   “Most readers will be aware that the amount of actual sequence data available to the research community has doubled roughly every 1.5 years for at least the last decade.”

10. Fiscal Year 2003 Budget Request NIH / National Human Genome Research Institute (testimony by Francis S. Collins and Kerry N. Weems) · 13 March 2002

    “The resulting working draft sequence covered over 94 percent of the human genome, with 33 percent in highly accurate finished form by February 2001. By January 2002 the amount in highly accurate finished sequence had risen to 65 percent.”

11. The Human Genome Project Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

    “The HGP draft genome sequence, prepared based on map and sequence data available on 8 October 2000, covered about 94 percent of the genome, with about 25 percent in the finished form already attained for chromosomes 21 and 22.”

12. Human Genome Sequencing Genome.gov (NHGRI) · 1 March 2011

    “The National Human Genome Research Institute's (NHGRI) human sequencing program began with a set of pilot projects in 1996 and scaled up to full production levels in 1999.”

Reasoning

E2/E8 show only about 3% of the genome sequenced at a point when doubts existed about meeting the 2005 target, and E5 shows only 6% done when capacity was about 90 Mb per year. E3 puts throughput at 150 Mb per year in early 1999. Yet by October 2000 the draft covered about 94% of the genome (E11, E10), and E12 says full production only began in 1999. This suggests most of the draft sequence was produced in the last year or two before the 2000 draft (E3, E11), and finished sequence also rose late, from 33% in February 2001 to 65% in January 2002 (E10). For growth rate, E9 says available sequence data doubled roughly every 1.5 years over the decade (about 1.6x a year). E9's measure, growth in available sequence data, is close to yearly doubling but a bit slower; it is not a direct measure of scanning speed, so it only roughly tests that part of the claim, which on this evidence is roughly right with that one imprecision.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6e008f7122f2, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6e008f7122f2