Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

183 claims · page 2 of 2

183 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual Jul 2020 In insurance, survival functions are never used for hedging; expected shortfalls are used instead. Nassim Taleb · Factual · Jul 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 GiveWell hopes to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities in 2020, most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, but may have limited capacity due to COVID-19 work. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 4 May 2020 Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates. Gary Marcus · Factual · 4 May 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 18 Apr 2020 One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect). Marc Andreessen · Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly false Jim Cramer Factual 30 Mar 2020 On 2020-03-30 falling oil prices were pushing down the S&P 500, with oil about to fall through $19 a barrel. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 10 Feb 2020 An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 Feb 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Factual 31 Dec 2019 Roughly two years of monetizing WhatsApp at Facebook's ARPU would yield about $19B in revenue, the amount Facebook paid for WhatsApp. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 31 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 26 Dec 2019 Enlightenment ideals are rising in the Islamic world, riding a six-decade global wave of liberal values documented by the World Values Survey. Steven Pinker · Factual · 26 Dec 2019 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Tyler Cowen Factual 18 Jul 2019 Israel is the only country other than the US with anything even vaguely like American venture capital. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Tyler Cowen Factual 18 Jul 2019 For-profit and nonprofit hospitals are statistically hard to tell apart in what they do, how they act and what they charge. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 18 Jul 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Financial regulators compute the recovery rate as the unconditional expected value of collateral, without conditioning on the default event. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Yann LeCun Factual 2019 Users upload 2 to 3 billion photos on Facebook every day. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Since the 1960s, practically all economic and informational variables have been shown to belong to the D2 class, or at least the intermediate subexponential class, which includes the lognormal. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 11 Nov 2018 Incarceration costs between $80,000 and $120,000 a year. Ray Dalio · Factual · 11 Nov 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 9 Oct 2018 Secular people stay home and do not vote, unlike religious people, who organize and vote. Steven Pinker · Factual · 9 Oct 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 20 Sep 2018 Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket factory in Florida is a 650,000-square-foot manufacturing facility. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 20 Sep 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 The sesame scene in season one of Silicon Valley is loosely based on Peter Thiel. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Satya Nadella Factual Oct 2017 Microsoft is the only cloud provider that operates in China under Chinese law. Satya Nadella · Factual · Oct 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 10 Jul 2017 The Romans never let a free person be a steward in a big state; they wanted a slave in that role. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 28 May 2017 ARPA (now DARPA) funded a military network originally conceived for nuclear command and control. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 17 Apr 2017 Jeff Bezos frequently uses "disagree and commit" on decisions himself. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 17 Apr 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2017 The average job today (as of 2017) pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2017 AI, the economy and work
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Altman wrote that in the previous 40 years there had been little progress on the parts of machine intelligence that seem really hard, such as learning and creativity. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 During the Ebola outbreak there was no epidemic response system at all, rather than one that worked poorly. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 About 15 years before 2015, online education amounted to little more than filming a university lecturer and recording. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Mostly false Bill Ackman Factual 21 Jul 2014 Herbalife's so-called nutritional clubs are not places where people get together to talk about losing weight. Bill Ackman · Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Yann LeCun Factual 15 May 2014 Convolutional nets were always the record holder on MNIST, and SVMs never really managed to beat them there. Yann LeCun · Factual · 15 May 2014 AI capabilities
Mostly false Bill Ackman Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more important today in the mortgage market than they have ever been. Bill Ackman · Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Factual 14 Jan 2014 Vinod Khosla has not invested over a billion dollars of his own money into cleantech. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Jan 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Factual 14 Jan 2014 Weeks before the 60 Minutes program aired, View secured an additional $100 million in private funding to ramp production at its Mississippi manufacturing facility. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Jan 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Factual 14 Jan 2014 Cleantech subsidies are a minuscule fraction of one percent of the fossil-fuel subsidy amounts referred to. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Jan 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jensen Huang Factual Mar 2013 The NVIDIA GRID VCA is the world's first visual computing appliance. Jensen Huang · Factual · Mar 2013 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 Evidence from the performance of banks shows that in the real world betting against long shots does not pay. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 1 Nov 2012 Social science had a reputation for banality and lost prestige funding to fields like neuroscience. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Nov 2012 Science and research methods
Mostly false Peter Thiel Factual 15 Jun 2012 A Chinese man tried to launch a rocket into space in the 11th century. Peter Thiel · Factual · 15 Jun 2012 Technology
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Factual 5 Apr 2011 Wall Street firms all used one single risk model in the mid-2000s. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Prediction 23 Dec 2010 The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 Technology
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual Jun 2010 Government intervention and quantitative easing after 2008 did not produce new financial assets. Ray Dalio · Factual · Jun 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly false Vinod Khosla Factual 28 Sep 2007 The vast majority of scientists will say that these fuels give a 20 to 30 percent carbon reduction. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Peter Thiel Factual 2007 No real economic development took place through postwar wealth transfers, and even in the best cases the money returned to the West in Swiss accounts of Third World dictators. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Children of culturally inept immigrants do fine if they can learn the ropes from native-born peers. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's U.S. books, music and video segment showed a $125 million operating profit in Q3 2000, its second profitable quarter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A personal computer can download fully trained speech-recognition patterns in seconds without repeating the training process. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Damage from self-replicating software is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the benefit received from computers and communication links. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The rate of paradigm shifts is currently doubling approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The history of technology shows technological change is at least exponential. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Leaving aside access into the home, general bandwidth is improving in price-performance, or dropping in price, faster than microprocessors, by a factor of about four each year. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Bill Gates

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Prediction Biosecurity

“We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)

Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

This claim has two parts. Part A, judged at 2015-12-31: wild poliovirus transmission ended in Africa during 2015, with no wild polio cases detected in Africa in 2015 or afterward that show transmission continued. Part B: wild poliovirus was eradicated from every country, with zero wild cases worldwide, within 'several years', read as by 2020-12-31. True: both parts held. Mostly true: both held, with a minor slip, such as Part B being met for wild poliovirus while circulating vaccine-derived polio cases persisted. Mixed: exactly one part held. Mostly false: neither part fully held, but there was clear partial progress, such as Africa free of wild polio but only after 2015, or wild polio confined to one or two countries by 2020. False: wild polio continued circulating in Africa past 2015, and in multiple countries worldwide past 2020, with no near-achievement of either part.

Evidence

  1. Africa eradicates wild poliovirus WHO Regional Office for Africa · 25 August 2020
    “The independent Africa Regional Certification Commission (ARCC) for Polio Eradication officially declared on Tuesday that the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region is free of wild poliovirus.”
  2. Government of Nigeria reports 2 wild polio cases, first since July 2014 World Health Organization · 11 August 2016
    “After more than two years without wild poliovirus in Nigeria, the Government reported today that 2 children have been paralyzed by the disease in the northern Borno state.”
  3. ANNUAL REPORT 2015 World Health Organization on behalf of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative · 2016
    “August 2015 marked one year without any WPV across the entire African continent (the most recent case occurred in Somalia).”
  4. Statement of the Twenty-Sixth Polio IHR Emergency Committee World Health Organization · 22 October 2020
    “The higher incidence of global WPV1 cases seen during 2020 continues, with 121 cases reported between 1 January – 5 October 2020 compared to 85 for the same period in 2019, a 42% increase.”

Reasoning

E3 reports that by August 2015 Africa had gone a full year without wild poliovirus. However, E2 reports that Nigeria found two wild polio cases in 2016, so wild polio cases were detected in Africa after 2015 and Part A did not hold. E1 shows the WHO African Region was certified free of wild poliovirus only in August 2020, and E4 reports 121 wild type 1 cases worldwide between 1 January and 5 October 2020, so Part B also failed. Neither part held, but Africa did become free of wild polio after 2015, which the criteria list as partial progress for a mostly false verdict.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_6dd314933bf7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6dd314933bf7

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.