666 claims · page 3 of 7
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 2 May 2024 | Jensen Huang said he and his two co-founders decided to start the company at this Denny's. Jensen Huang · Factual · 2 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 18 Apr 2024 | Meta started Facebook AI Research (FAIR) about 10 years before 2024. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 18 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | Anthropic introduced its Responsible Scaling Plan at the end of 2023, setting thresholds for AI system capabilities. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | Anthropic's models are currently at AI Safety Level ASL-2. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | Vinod Khosla calls himself a "venture assistant", which used to annoy his former colleague John Doerr. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | Khosla read about Andy Grove at Intel in magazines as a youth in India and was inspired by his story, and has said so publicly before. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 31 Mar 2024 | In early August 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a piece titled 'What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud', which was picked up by the Financial Times and other outlets. Gary Marcus · Factual · 31 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 29 Mar 2024 | Yann LeCun gave a lecture hosted by the Center of Mathematical Sciences and Applications at Harvard on 2024-03-28 to a full house. Yann LeCun · Factual · 29 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk wanted total control of OpenAI to turn it around. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Sam Altman | Promise | 18 Mar 2024 | OpenAI will release an amazing new model in 2024. Sam Altman · Promise · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Altman said his memory was that Musk's proposal was for OpenAI to be acquired by Tesla, with Tesla having full control, adding that he was "pretty sure" of this. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Asked whether OpenAI's compute was in the same nuclear facility, Altman said there is no nuclear facility. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk says he cares a great deal about AI safety and is really worried about it. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Elon Musk chose to part ways with OpenAI. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org". Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 28 Feb 2024 | DeepMind has always bet on generality and learning as the core of its techniques, focusing on reinforcement learning, search and deep learning. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Feb 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 28 Feb 2024 | DeepMind and Google Brain previously collaborated project by project, and now collaborate more deeply and broadly. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Feb 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 28 Feb 2024 | Gemini is the first product of the DeepMind–Google Brain collaboration, and its name implies twins. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Feb 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Feb 2024 | After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have. Gary Marcus · Factual · Feb 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Tesla's first manufacturing location for its next-gen vehicle will be its Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 24 Jan 2024 | Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2024 | Brooks has spent his whole professional life developing robots, and his companies have built more robots than anyone else's. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2024 | Brooks bought his first electric car in 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Elon Musk | Factual | Jan 2024 | Tesla is very far along on its next-generation low-cost vehicle, as of the January 2024 earnings call. Elon Musk · Factual · Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Pershing Square's hedging strategy has generated large profits that were generally reinvested in core holdings at lower valuations during market disruptions. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | PSH's stock currently trades at a 26.3% discount to NAV. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Day One Investors in Pershing Square grew their equity at a 16.5% compounded annual rate over 20 years versus 10.0% for the S&P 500. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | SPARC has no underwriting fees, shareholder warrants or founder stock, and has 10 years to execute a deal. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Pershing Square has not made an activist investment in nearly eight years. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Factual | 29 Dec 2023 | SpaceX achieved 96 launches in 2023. Elon Musk · Factual · 29 Dec 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Factual | 17 Dec 2023 | It took 66 years from first powered flight to a moon landing, and about 50 years have passed since the last moon landing. Elon Musk · Factual · 17 Dec 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 14 Dec 2023 | Over two decades before December 2023, Khosla figured AI would force us to rethink what it means to be human. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 14 Dec 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 30 Nov 2023 | OpenAI has said throughout 2023 that it expects AI progress to continue. Sam Altman · Factual · 30 Nov 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 30 Nov 2023 | OpenAI consistently said it expects AI progress to continue, even when accused of fear-mongering, marketing or regulatory capture. Sam Altman · Factual · 30 Nov 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nouriel Roubini | Factual | 29 Nov 2023 | Roubini published a recent Project Syndicate piece discussing the rise in economic threats and their interactions with social, political, environmental and technological developments. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 29 Nov 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 15 Nov 2023 | Microsoft has deployed its own Copilot for customer service internally, for Azure support. Satya Nadella · Factual · 15 Nov 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 26 Oct 2023 | Gary Marcus emphasized a CERN for AI and global AI governance in April 2023 in his TED talk and in The Economist. Gary Marcus · Factual · 26 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 21 Oct 2023 | Brooks said he has reported on particular autonomous vehicle rides, his or others', when he thought the vehicles had done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 21 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 21 Oct 2023 | In summer 1979 Rodney Brooks worked as Hans Moravec's assistant at the Stanford AI Lab, helping test Moravec's self-driving Cart for his PhD thesis. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 21 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 21 Oct 2023 | The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 21 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 21 Oct 2023 | Rodney Brooks made predictions about autonomous vehicles, AI and space on 1 January 2018 and has reviewed them every 1 January since. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 21 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Sep 2023 | Meta is building a platform called AI Studio that will, over time, let anyone create AI characters like other user-generated content. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Sep 2023 | Meta will probably start releasing the creator-built AI versions of themselves in 2024. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 28 Sep 2023 | Meta is releasing the Quest 3 headset at a price of $500. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Promise | 11 Sep 2023 | Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Promise | 11 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic published a blog post on security stating it has a two-key system for access to model weights. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 24 Jun 2023 | Rodney Brooks gave a keynote at CVPR 2023 on Tuesday 20 June 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 24 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 23 Jun 2023 | Max Tegmark is a professor at MIT. Yann LeCun · Factual · 23 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Balaji Srinivasan has created tweets, talks, podcasts, courses, articles and The Network State book. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted currently operates 15.5 GW of renewable energy assets, with 4.9 GW under construction. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | There is a community chat associated with the newsletter at balajis.com/chat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Balaji Srinivasan's newsletter audience has more than 100,000 subscribers. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted was the first energy company in the world to have its science-based net-zero emissions target validated by the Science Based Targets initiative. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 Apr 2023 | Google DeepMind is creating a new Scientific Board, led by Koray Kavukcuoglu with representatives from across the orgs, to oversee research progress and direction. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Zoubin Ghahramani will join the Google DeepMind research leadership team reporting to Koray Kavukcuoglu. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Google DeepMind brings together DeepMind and Brain AI talent with Google's computing power, infrastructure and resources. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | On 20 April 2023 Sundar Pichai announced that DeepMind and Google Research's Brain team would join as a single unit called Google DeepMind. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | When DeepMind launched in 2010, many people thought general AI was farfetched science fiction decades away. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Research advances from the Brain and DeepMind teams, from Deep Reinforcement Learning to Transformers, laid much of the foundations of the current AI industry. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 7 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky said he did not sign the open letter because he thinks it understates the seriousness of the situation and asks for too little to solve it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Eliezer Yudkowsky has consistently refused for many years to publish AI timelines with detailed probabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky previously thought that building intelligence would involve multiple specialized systems. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | MIRI ran a Visible Thoughts Project that did not get enough funding or personnel and was progressing too slowly. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 31 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky's TIME piece did not suggest nuclear strikes against countries refusing to sign a global agreement against large AI training runs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 31 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The FLI open letter called for more AI research. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Gary Marcus | Promise | 30 Mar 2023 | Gary Marcus will speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, in about two weeks from 2023-03-30. Gary Marcus · Promise · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on AI or for a permanent ban. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 7 Mar 2023 | Ray Dalio has transitioned Bridgewater to new leadership. Ray Dalio · Factual · 7 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Feb 2023 | OpenAI's Charter includes a clause about assisting other organizations to advance safety instead of racing with them in late-stage AGI development. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Feb 2023 | OpenAI has a cap on the returns its shareholders can earn. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Volume production of the vehicle under discussion will happen in 2024. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla FSD has accumulated about 100 million miles outside of highways as of January 2023. Elon Musk · Factual · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla's Cybertruck will have Hardware 4. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla is increasing 4680 cell capacity by another 100 gigawatt-hours, as announced at Giga Nevada. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects Cybertruck production to start maybe sometime in summer 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 26 Jan 2023 | Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Factual | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla has raised the Model Y price a little bit in response to high orders. Elon Musk · Factual · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 9 Jan 2023 | Nobel laureates Jennifer Doudna, David MacMillan, Paul Nurse and Venki Ramakrishnan joined the Isomorphic Labs Scientific Advisory Board. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 9 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 2023 | The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022). Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 2023 | Pinker was among those who argued that predicting the next word is not how language works. Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Steven Pinker | Factual | 24 Dec 2022 | The lost Carl Sagan lecture 'Science and Civil Liberties' was discovered and edited by Steven Pinker and Harvey Silverglate and appeared in Quillette's 2022 Editors' Choice. Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Dec 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 27 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella's annual letter to Microsoft shareholders reflects on connecting what technology can do with what the world needs. Satya Nadella · Factual · 27 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 13 Oct 2022 | Dario Amodei and his co-founders were among the first to document, while at OpenAI, that scaling up AI training smoothly improves results across a range of cognitive tasks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 12 Oct 2022 | Satya Nadella gave a keynote at Microsoft Ignite on 2022-10-12. Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Oct 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 20 Sep 2022 | The Goalkeepers community is meeting in person for the first time since 2019. Bill Gates · Factual · 20 Sep 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 28 Aug 2022 | Jeff Bezos says his first job was at the burger chain shown in the post (McDonald's). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 23 Aug 2022 | In 2021 Bill Gates laid out a plan for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Bill Gates · Factual · 23 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Factual | 18 Aug 2022 | Dr. Helene Gayle and Ashish Dhawan have decided to join the Gates Foundation's board. Bill Gates · Factual · 18 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Aug 2022 | Tom Alberg was an early investor in Amazon and served on Amazon's board for 23 years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Aug 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
“We also continue to maintain our energy-related hedge to mitigate the impact of a large rise in energy prices.”
Bill Ackman, letter to PSH shareholders 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square 2023 Annual Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)
Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of the date of the 2024 statement, using Pershing Square's 2024 investor letters, PSH interim or annual reports, or portfolio disclosures. True: Pershing Square held an energy-related hedge at that time, for example oil or energy derivatives or options designed to protect against large rises in energy prices, and it had also held one before that date, so that 'continue' fits. Mostly true: the hedge existed but had been put on recently or was described somewhat differently, for example as an inflation hedge with an energy component. Mostly false: the hedge had been closed shortly before the statement, or it was not related to energy prices. False: PSH disclosures from that period show no energy-related hedge.
Evidence
- Bill Ackman: Google, Ukraine and Interest Rates GuruFocus · 30 September 2023
“Pershing Square also operates some “hedges” on both rising energy prices and high interest rates.”
- Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 15 August 2024 Own record
“The Investment Manager aims to manage risks through careful investment selection and portfolio construction, and may use opportunistic hedging strategies to mitigate market-related downside risk or to take advantage of asymmetric profit opportunities.”
- Annual Investor Presentation Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 8 February 2024 Own record
“Proven ability for the existing team to enhance its competencies over time, including macroeconomic hedging and private-to-public investing”
- Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“Derivative Contracts: Currency Forwards Equity Options Forward Purchase Agreement(4) Interest Rate Swaptions”
- Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“The Investment Manager aims to manage risks through careful investment selection and portfolio construction, and may use opportunistic hedging strategies to mitigate market-related downside risk or to take advantage of asymmetric profit opportunities.”
- Annual Investor Presentation Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 8 February 2024 Own record
“This presentation contains information and analyses relating to all of the publicly disclosed positions over 50 basis points in the portfolio of Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (“PSH” or the “Company”) during 2023.”
- Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2024 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements (June 30, 2024) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record
“Net realized gain/(loss) on commodity interests (net of brokerage”
- Investment Manager’s Report investorkurs.no (hosting a compilation of Pershing Square Holdings letters, 2017-2024) Own record
“In 2023, our hedges generated 187 basis points (bps) of losses principally due to an energy-related hedge (-108bps) and Japanese interest-rate swaptions (-141bps)”
Reasoning
An independent 2023 report says Pershing Square held hedges against rising energy prices (E1). PSH's own investment manager's report says its 2023 hedges lost money, mainly because of an energy-related hedge (-108bps) (E9). Both show the hedge existed before 2024, so "continue" fits. The June 2024 interim report has a line for commodity interests (E7), but its table of derivatives names no energy or oil contract (E4), and the quotes do not directly confirm the hedge was still held when the statement was made. That leaves some doubt, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices.” (said 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6cb8a0806c8b, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6cb8a0806c8b
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.