Claims

Factual · AI policy and governance

“I'm not sure if voters are going to be this detail-oriented, but a salient factor in how they might behave tactically in the Democratic primary is that if you don't get at least 15% in a given state/district, you don't get any delegates.”

Nate Silver, writing on X · 26 September 2019 · Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2019-09-26 (X)

In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged against the 2020 Democratic National Committee Delegate Selection Rules in force on 26 September 2019. True if the rules set a 15% threshold such that a candidate getting under 15% of the vote in a given unit (statewide, or a congressional district or other district) receives none of the pledged delegates allocated at that level. Mostly true if the threshold is 15% but there are minor exceptions or nuances (e.g. a candidate under 15% statewide can still win district delegates, or the threshold drops if no candidate reaches 15%). Mixed if the threshold applies only to some delegate categories or states. Mostly false if a threshold exists but at a materially different level or applies in a substantially different way. False if there is no such threshold.

Evidence

1. Thresholds for Delegate Allocation in 2020 Democratic Primary and Caucus Contests - 270toWin 270toWin

   “There is a 15% minimum threshold to receive any delegates. Those not receiving the minimum are excluded, with the delegate pool divided proportionately among those candidates receiving 15% or more.”

2. Thresholds for Delegate Allocation in 2020 Democratic Primary and Caucus Contests - 270toWin 270toWin

   “The 15% threshold applies at each geographic level where delegates are awarded.”

3. Thresholds for Delegate Allocation in 2020 Democratic Primary and Caucus Contests - 270toWin 270toWin

   “If no candidate meets the 15% threshold, Democratic Party rules state the minimum to receive delegates will be 50% of the vote received by the front-runner.”

4. Democrats must act now to avoid an undemocratic 2020 outcome | Brookings Brookings Institution · 29 January 2019

   “The rules also require a candidate to win 15 percent of the primary or caucus vote in each of the state's congressional districts to get any pledged delegates at all in that district.”

Reasoning

Brookings (January 2019) describes the rules as requiring a candidate to win 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district to get any pledged delegates in that district (E4). 270toWin says the 15% minimum applies at each geographic level where delegates are awarded, and that candidates below it are excluded from that delegate pool (E1, E2). 270toWin also reports a fallback: if no candidate reaches 15%, the threshold drops to half of the front-runner's vote share (E3). The criteria name this as a nuance that makes the claim mostly true rather than true.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “In the Democratic primary, a candidate who gets under 15% in a given state or district receives no delegates.” (said 26 September 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_69aabf3c1513, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_69aabf3c1513