Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

498 claims · page 4 of 5

498 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ethereum and Bitcoin will do fine by 2028 (Ethereum because stablecoins are built on its chain). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He said he does not expect advances in genetics by 2028 to yield anything more interesting than one or two last-ditch treatments for rare diseases, "if that". Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 By 2028 there will be more of a movement to ban or restrict AI. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Not yet due Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Elon Musk Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Within about five years, some competitor will probably have caught up with Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 The level of sales Brooks had predicted could plausibly be reached in one of 2026, 2027 or 2028. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 There will be human drivers on roads for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 In three years, the things being advanced, which the speaker says improve every month, will be quite exciting. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly sooner. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2045 humans will multiply their intelligence millions-fold by adding AI to their brains. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2023 By 2029 we should be able to overcome most significant health problems. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 2023 AI misuse risks such as biological or chemical weapons uplift might become real risks in 2025 or 2026. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 2023 Biosecurity
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 Within a decade, maybe much less, AI's focus will shift from pure scaling of large language models to integrating them with other techniques. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Other global risks
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 13 Oct 2022 AI smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips and at least tens of billions of dollars, and is most likely to arrive in 2026-2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, cryptocurrency will be what all politics is about, as social media was in the 2010s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 In five or ten years people will care a great deal where their money is held and whether it can be frozen. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 4 Jul 2022 By the end of the 2020s, governments will not be able to fund themselves without cryptocurrency. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Beyond the point reached around 2032, a timing he said depends on how diligent a person is, people will get back more than a year of longevity from scientific progress for each year lived. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Biosecurity
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 It will probably take about four or five years before AI passing the Turing test becomes obvious and no longer a question. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI capabilities
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks molecular assemblers, which would let people build anything they want anywhere, will arrive more like the 2040s. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil says that saying "by the end of the decade" is conservative and that it could happen faster; the material does not state what the estimate refers to. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 Kurzweil said he thinks people will be given money so they can manage while they reconsider what kind of work they will be able to do. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 26 May 2022 AI will go inside humans and make them much smarter than before. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 26 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 Reaching human-level AI will not need a massive new breakthrough beyond current neural nets with additional changes. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 In the 2030s humans will begin to merge with AI, connecting their minds to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 By 2045 most human thinking will take place in the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Apr 2022 AI will probably pass the Turing test earlier than 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Apr 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg suggested that maybe five years from now, if they were doing the same conversation, AR glasses could let a hologram of him sit on the couch next to the interviewer. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Promise 24 Mar 2022 Zuckerberg hopes that by the end of this decade 50 percent or more of Meta's workforce will work distributed and remotely. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Dec 2021 The US can build 6000 fusion boilers by 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 Technology
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 1 Dec 2021 Khosla said he was optimistic that all coal and natural gas plants "in this country" can be replaced before 2040. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 1 Dec 2021 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Within roughly 10 to 20 years, India could become an intermediate between American anarchy and total Chinese control. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 India may be a big component of the decentralized side in the China versus decentralized world split by around 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Srinivasan said he thinks that by 2040 or 2050, maybe sooner, there could in theory be robotic, autarkic farms run by giving instructions to robotic field hands. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 The DeFi matrix will be to the 2020s what the social graph was to the previous decade. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 17 Nov 2021 Drones and similar technologies may make government enforcement of compliance cheaper, a trend he places around the late 2030s to 2040. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 17 Nov 2021 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg stated a hope, not a firm prediction: that if "we all work at it," within the next decade the metaverse would reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Zuckerberg expressed the hope ("Our hope is that...") that within the next decade the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Oct 2021 Within five to ten years, much of this metaverse technology will be mainstream and many people will daily create and inhabit detailed, convincing virtual worlds. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Oct 2021 Technology
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted raised its ambition for renewable build-out from +30 GW announced at the 2018 Capital Markets Day to approx. 50 GW by 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted sets the ambition that no later than 2030 all new projects it commissions will have a net-positive biodiversity impact. Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted plans to invest approx. DKK 350 billion in green energy from 2020 to 2027, raising average yearly investments by approx. 50% since the last Capital Markets Day. Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted sets the ambition to reach approx. 50 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted expects its average return on capital employed for 2020-2027 to be 11-12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow approx. 12% a year on average in 2020-2027, reaching DKK 35-40 billion in 2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Promise 2 Jun 2021 Ørsted sets the ambition of reaching approx. 50 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, more than quadrupling its installed capacity over the next decade. Ørsted · Promise · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ørsted Prediction 2 Jun 2021 Approx. 90% on average of Ørsted's EBITDA for 2020-2027 will come from regulated or contract-based activities. Ørsted · Prediction · 2 Jun 2021 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Satya Nadella Promise 22 Apr 2021 Microsoft is committed to becoming carbon negative, water positive and zero waste by 2030, and to using technology to create a more sustainable future. Satya Nadella · Promise · 22 Apr 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 A shift from a standing military to a citizen military will have to wait until around midcentury, when warfare is all drones. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 He said he did not think it would be great to be a Chinese American in four or five years, as a new Cold War heats up, and added that he hoped it would not come to that. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks India is going to be the dark horse of this decade, and that this is not priced in. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 In some country, probably the US, the cloud will burst sometime in the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Probably by 2025, and by 2030 at the latest, Zoom users will have audio and video filters that make them sound and look like a different person. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 AI capabilities
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 Balaji Srinivasan said he thinks that after the 2020s, being incorporated in the US will be considered a major vulnerability. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Mar 2021 There is about a 30 percent chance of a firewall attack on Bitcoin, over a timeframe the interviewer framed as the next five years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Mar 2021 Economics and markets
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 18 Aug 2020 For autonomous vehicles, the 'short run' of overestimated expectations will last 30 or more years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 18 Aug 2020 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction May 2020 Kurzweil said he believes that by the end of the decade we will be able to realistically model all biology and simulate interventions for diseases without the need for human trials. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · May 2020 Science and research methods
Not yet due Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The institutional failure over the coronavirus pandemic will have effects through the rest of the 2020s. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Dec 2019 Startup cities will be a major trend of the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 29 Dec 2019 The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 Other
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Gary Marcus guessed that artificial general intelligence would arrive somewhere between 20 and 100 years from 2019, maybe closer to 50, and said this was a wide confidence interval. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Machines will achieve world-class scientific reasoning within the next 500 years (by 2519). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks suspects that human-level AI is much more complex than detecting gravity waves, controlled fusion or chemistry, and that it will take hundreds of years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that, of the practical systems built since 2006, the biggest practical impact for most people recently, and likely over the next couple of decades, is on speech transliteration systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that perhaps, as he tends to believe, getting there is just really hard and will take a hundred years or more of concerted effort. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Token-based financing at a very small, individual level will take about 20 years (perhaps 10), not 5, to be realized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Eventually, humanoid robots combined with a VR bodysuit will let people script and control a robot from around the world, maybe in 10 years, seeing through the robot's eyes and moving its arms through the bodysuit. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Interesting telepresence capabilities are about 5 to 10 years away. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There is a real possibility that a flying car will not be purchasable by any US resident with enough money even by 2050 (original prediction: not before 2036). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Hyperloop will not happen in Brooks's lifetime, i.e. not by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 The generally agreed 'next big thing' in AI beyond deep learning will be something already being worked on with published papers, emerging no earlier than 2023 and by 2027. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks will publish on his blog dated predictions covering the next thirty-two years. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 No self driving car will be faced with an instance of the trolley problem until beyond 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Flying cars will reach 0.01% of total US cars no earlier than 2042. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 There will be no commercially viable passenger-carrying hyperloop systems within the next 32 years (by 2050). Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Rodney Brooks said he thinks landing cargo on Mars by 2026 is optimistic, though it might be pushed to happen as a statement that it can be done rather than for a pressing practical reason. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A flying car will not be available for purchase by any US resident with enough money before 2036, and there is a real possibility this will not happen at all by 2050. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 A major city banning parking and human-driven cars from part of the city will be the starting point of a turn toward driverless cars, no earlier than 2027 and by 2031. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Promise 1 Jan 2018 Brooks said he had promised in 2018 to review his predictions at the start of every year until 2050, thirty-two years in total. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 The Singularity will occur in 2045, when humans multiply their effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the AI they created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 5 Oct 2017 An AI will pass a valid Turing test and achieve human levels of intelligence in 2029, the date Kurzweil has consistently predicted. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 People will still be in the loop worrying about physical wiring of robotics and AI systems for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 7 Sep 2017 Widespread deployment of self-driving cars will take decades, not years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 Technology
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Balaji Srinivasan

Open its page

Prediction Other global risks

“I think the century lines up as centralized China versus a decentralized world.”

Balaji Srinivasan, guest 17 November 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #547 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog)

Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

A 20-40 year prediction from 2021 has a horizon (2041-2061) that has not passed, and the framing is a broad geopolitical characterization.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world.” (said 17 November 2021). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_66dab91de44e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_66dab91de44e

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.