ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“I think the century lines up as centralized China versus a decentralized world.”

Balaji Srinivasan, guest 17 November 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #547 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog)

Prediction Other global risks

Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A 20-40 year prediction from 2021 has a horizon (2041-2061) that has not passed, and the framing is a broad geopolitical characterization.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Over the next 20-40 years, the century will line up as a centralized China versus a decentralized world.” (said 17 November 2021). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_66dab91de44e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_66dab91de44e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mixed Prediction 25 March 2021
    “So the fear is that, if vaccines are eventually rolled out and if enough Americans take them, then by 2023 or 2024, people will be spoiling for a fight to go and beat up China as the one legitimated…”

    He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 27 August 2024
    “France may not be able to hold him prisoner for long.”

    France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 25 March 2021
    “I think that by 2024, you're going to have to use VPN.”

    By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 31 March 2020
    “Censoring anyone (let alone a head of state) in this way will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.”

    Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.

  5. Mixed Prediction 30 March 2020
    “When checks hit, people will spend on consumer staples.”

    When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise.

All of them

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