Claims

Factual · Philosophy, ethics and society

“murder rates in the Middle Ages were about 35 times higher than they are today”

Steven Pinker, author, interviewee · 13 February 2018 · Steven Pinker Interview: Life Has Become Better (Smashing Interviews)

Murder rates in the Middle Ages were about 35 times higher than they are today.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Compare medieval homicide-rate estimates (chiefly Western Europe, e.g. Eisner's data) with present-day rates in the same region. TRUE: the ratio in standard estimates is roughly 25–45 times. MOSTLY TRUE: the ratio is 18–25 or 45–60 times, or the figure holds only for some regions (e.g. England) that the claim generalises from. MIXED: estimates range so widely that about 35 times is one plausible value among many, or the ratio is 10–18 times. MOSTLY FALSE: the ratio is 3–10 times, or reliable evidence shows that the medieval data cannot support any such multiple. FALSE: medieval rates were not substantially higher than today's (less than 3 times).

Evidence

1. [PDF] MODERNIZATION, SELF-CONTROL AND LETHAL VIOLENCE The Long-term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (article by Manuel Eisner, as hosted at antoniocasella.eu) · 2001

   “Typical estimates referring to the late Middle Ages range between 20 and 40 homicides per 100,000, while respective data for the mid twentieth century are between 0.5 and 1 per 100,000.”

2. [PDF] MODERNIZATION, SELF-CONTROL AND LETHAL VIOLENCE The Long-term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective British Journal of Criminology (article by Manuel Eisner, as hosted at antoniocasella.eu) · 2001

   “It starts at about 20 homicides per 100,000 population in the high and late Middle Ages and ends after an extended downswing at about one homicide per 100,000 in the twentieth century.”

3. Hard numbers? The long-term decline in violence reassessed. Empirical objections and fresh perspectives Continuity and Change (Cambridge University Press) · 2021

   “Thorough source criticism, however, raises serious doubts about the decline thesis having any substantial empirical foundation.”

4. 16 Violence and Murder in Europe Cambridge University Press

   “The unavoidable conclusion is that no meaningful statistics about overall levels of violence can be drawn from such dissimilar sources.”

Reasoning

Eisner's standard synthesis (E1) puts typical late-medieval estimates at 20–40 homicides per 100,000, against 0.5–1 per 100,000 for the mid-twentieth century. That gives a ratio of roughly 20 to 80 times, with central values near 35–40. Eisner also describes a series (E2) with a smaller decline, from about 20 per 100,000 in the high and late Middle Ages to about one per 100,000 in the twentieth century, or about 20 times. Other scholars question whether medieval records can support meaningful statistics at all (E3, E4), so the exact multiple is uncertain. About 35 times falls within the range of Eisner's typical estimates (E1), but it rests on contested data (E3, E4) and another series gives a smaller ratio (E2), which supports mostly true.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Murder rates in the Middle Ages were about 35 times higher than they are today.” (said 13 February 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_5cbadf305aa3, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5cbadf305aa3