Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 17 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By 2029, computers will pass the Turing test. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 AI will pass the Turing test by 2029, possibly earlier. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 By the 2030s, it won't be a device one has to remember to bring, and people won't know whether the answers their brain seems to give them come from their biological brain or the AI extender. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 The questioner's company has a robot that can flip a cap off a jar, which no one else's robot can do. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Technology
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 Kurzweil did an experiment of decoding brain activity into output about five years ago, imperfect but significant. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 People diligent about their health will reach longevity escape velocity by the end of this decade. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 Homo sapiens 100,000 years ago were not as smart as people today. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Exponential medical breakthroughs will lead to longevity escape velocity by around 2032. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 The cloud is backed up across locations, so it is not subject to loss from warfare. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 There will be a tremendous amount of advances in robotics over the next 10 years. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Brain interfaces will help people who can't communicate and ultimately enhance our own intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 Technology
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Promise Mar 2025 Kurzweil's next book will include a large section on jobs and what people would like to accomplish. Ray Kurzweil · Promise · Mar 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 AI and computers doing things more quickly will give people more family time. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction Mar 2025 Kurzweil said that now everybody thinks AI will pass the Turing test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 More and more people from more backgrounds, including third world countries in Africa and South America, now participate in technological advances than previously. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 Over the next two years, people will wake up to both the risks and benefits of AI to a much more extreme extent than before. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 Amodei said that, once people fully understand the economic and military value of AI, which he thinks they mostly already do, he does not see any way it turns into anything other than the most intense race, whatever is said now about cooperation. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Many other companies' reasoning models on the market are trained primarily on math and competition coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 In Amodei's view, technical mitigations such as interpretability, robust classifiers and the ability to generate evidence of bad model behavior and sometimes correct it have been a little better. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 In the short run (about 6 to 12 months), AI will augment and increase coders' productivity rather than replace them. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Delivered on time Dario Amodei Promise 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic will launch web search for Claude very soon. Dario Amodei · Promise · 28 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 The AI policy environment has become a little worse because it has become more polarized. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei said he did not think Anthropic's hiring plans had changed yet, and that he could imagine the company being able to do more with less over the next year or so. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Claude models have always been the best at coding, and Claude 3.7 Sonnet took a further step up in coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic ran an experiment training a model to be helpful, honest, harmless and friendly. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Changing a model's name in Anthropic's API is hard, especially when it is offered to many partners and surfaces. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Claude is already being used for diagnosis of medical cases, per correspondence from users. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei's assessment of AI risk is about what it was before, as AI progress has been about what he expected. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 In the longer run (perhaps 18 to 24 months), AI may replace coders, particularly at lower levels. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei said he thinks AI coding is moving the fastest of all the areas of AI. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei's earlier 10 to 25% figure referred to the chance of civilization getting substantially derailed. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 Amodei put a chance of maybe 70–80% on a very large number of AI systems much smarter than humans at almost everything arriving before the end of the decade, and said his guess was 2026–2027. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 The model sometimes gives a very short response because, when it knows it gains nothing from thinking further, it does not think for longer; a bound on how long it thinks is still described as valuable. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Most of the improvements in Claude 3.7 Sonnet and Claude 3.6 Sonnet came in the post-training phase. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 AI replacement of coders may occur even earlier than 18 to 24 months. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic trained Claude 3.7 to focus more on real-world tasks, as distinct from competition coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 The models Anthropic has released so far were not that expensive to train. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Despite a climate of worrying less about AI risks, the underlying risks from AI have been increasing. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Promise 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic will release bigger, more expensive models than those released so far. Dario Amodei · Promise · 28 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic's approach to reasoning models in Sonnet 3.7 emphasized different things from competitors' reasoning models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Own records only Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said that, in terms of his actual track record, he has probably been right about 65 percent of the time. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 The gap between conservative and liberal votes in the US House and Senate is the greatest since 1900. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 The United States designs chips but cannot produce chips effectively. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 22 Feb 2025 Humans and artificial intelligence will merge to some degree, whether or not people like it. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Ray Dalio did a study rating countries and published it free online. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 22 Feb 2025 In Dalio's opinion, the development he was discussing is the biggest impact we have, compared with the printing press and the industrial revolutions, because it will revolutionize all thinking and make whatever you are doing much more efficient and much more powerful. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 In Dalio's Global Powers Index, country power measures show no correlation with health or happiness beyond a certain living standard. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 US life expectancy is five years lower than that of Canadians and of countries with equal income levels. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 About 3 million people (the top innovators) live in a US population of a little over 330 million. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Field building and careers
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said that over the past 30 years, US leaders have dealt with the recurring problem he was describing by completely ignoring it. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Indonesia has the second highest happiness rating. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 60% of Americans read below a sixth-grade level. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 The United States wins more Nobel Prizes than any other country, dominating the world total. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Science and research methods
Mixed Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 China accounts for about 33% of world manufacturing, more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said he would expect the United States not to have competitive advantages in the two areas he was discussing, where he said it is greatly behind. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said he does not believe the United States will become competitive with China in manufacturing within our lifetimes. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 22 Feb 2025 A fiscal commission achieving agreement on US fiscal problems is unlikely, and the US will see more fragmentation. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 22 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Voting across party lines in the US Congress is the lowest since 1900. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Dario Amodei Promise 18 Feb 2025 Anthropic has a goal of reaching the point where interpretability can reliably detect most model problems by 2027. Dario Amodei · Promise · 18 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 If truly compelling evidence of the dangers of autonomous AI emerged, a slowdown in AI development would be just barely possible. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Chris Olah was unusual in proposing and seriously pursuing a comprehensive effort to understand everything neural networks do. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Interpretability, meaning understanding the inner workings of AI systems, could be achieved before AI models reach an overwhelming level of power. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said that multiple recent breakthroughs had convinced him that interpretability research is on the right track and has a real chance of success in its goal of fully revealing the inner workings of AI models. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Better interpretability could greatly improve the ability to set bounds on the range of possible AI errors. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 People outside the AI field are often surprised and alarmed to learn that AI creators do not understand how their AI systems work. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said that, on its current trajectory, he would bet strongly in favor of interpretability becoming a sophisticated and reliable way to diagnose problems in even very advanced AI within 5-10 years. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 When Anthropic was founded, its founders made mechanistic interpretability a central part of the company's direction, focused on LLMs. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said that "we" were able to provide a strong theoretical basis for having conviction that superposition was the right hypothesis to pursue; the surrounding text does not say who "we" refers to. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 It became clear that superposition would be a central problem for language models, much worse than in vision models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Modern generative AI systems are opaque in a way that fundamentally differs from traditional software. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said he does not think truly compelling evidence of the dangers of autonomous AI exists today, contrary to the claims of advocates. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 If it were possible to look inside models, it might be possible to systematically block all jailbreaks and characterize what dangerous knowledge models have. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said he is quite skeptical that any slowdown in AI development to address risk is possible, even among companies within democratic countries, given AI's economic value. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Anthropic created "Golden Gate Claude", a version of one of its models with the Golden Gate Bridge feature artificially amplified, making it obsessed with the bridge. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Circuits, groups of features, allow researchers to trace an AI model's thinking steps. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 18 Feb 2025 The most likely route to "smoking gun" evidence of AI danger is interpretability itself. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 4 Feb 2025 Gates thinks the theory of innovation, making cheap, clean technology, is one of the few things that will survive the reduced willingness to subsidize. Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 4 Feb 2025 Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Political donations in Silicon Valley go 90 to 99% to one party. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The DOGE effort will turn out very different from previous government-efficiency programs. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen popularized two memes, though he may not have invented them. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 If US debt growth is not fixed, the US will at some point enter a hyper-inflationary spiral and become like Argentina or Brazil. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The Democratic Party figured out that these tech companies were very subject to being controlled. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen has seen a newspaper columnist get a CEO fired but has not seen a CEO get a columnist fired. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Silicon Valley voting records show it has been overwhelmingly Democratic, at least historically and for Andreessen's entire time there. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The person Andreessen was discussing paid $500 million for the operation he says that person funds out of his own pocket. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said the Twitter Files are a hundred percent representative of what he has seen at every other one of these companies, and that what happened at Twitter can be assumed to have happened at the others for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure they got. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The Stanford Internet Observatory was basically funded by the federal government to be a third-party censorship operation. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said that in 1992 he was asked to implement a nudity filter. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 If federal (and for state schools, state) taxpayer funding were withdrawn, universities would instantly go bankrupt. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 Other
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Anger over online censorship probably increased enthusiasm among right-leaning voters in the recent US election. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
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Marc Andreessen

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Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

“the Twitter files are a hundred percent representative of what I’ve seen at every other one of these companies.”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 26 January 2025 Transcript for Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America (Lex Fridman)

Andreessen said the Twitter Files are a hundred percent representative of what he has seen at every other one of these companies, and that what happened at Twitter can be assumed to have happened at the others for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure they got.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

Depends on Andreessen's private observations of pressure at other companies, not publicly documented.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Andreessen said the Twitter Files are a hundred percent representative of what he has seen at every other one of these companies, and that what happened at Twitter can be assumed to have happened at the others for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure they got.” (said 26 January 2025). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_581dda3631fa, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_581dda3631fa

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.