Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 29 Jul 2022 Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Bill Ackman · Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 22 Jul 2022 A new trailer for The Rings of Power was released at Comic-Con on 2022-07-22. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 22 Jul 2022 Other
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 14 Jul 2022 Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Bill Ackman · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 14 Jul 2022 The first full-length trailer for The Rings of Power was released by 2022-07-14. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 Other
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 5 Jul 2022 There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Bill Ackman · Factual · 5 Jul 2022 Other
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 4 Jul 2022 In the late 1990s, and probably the early 2000s, people (including Bill Gates) talked about a 'convergence device'. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Technology
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 4 Jul 2022 Inflation affects African Americans, Latinos, Asians and whites equally. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual 4 Jul 2022 Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 4 Jul 2022 Sergey Brin remarked many years ago that staring down at a phone is emasculating. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Technology
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 30 Jun 2022 The first half of 2022 was the worst first half for the stock market since 1970. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Jun 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Delivered on time Nate Silver Promise 29 Jun 2022 Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon. Nate Silver · Promise · 29 Jun 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 28 Jun 2022 On the 2022-06-28 Mad Money episode, Jim Cramer interviews Adam Selipsky, CEO of Amazon Web Services. Jim Cramer · Factual · 28 Jun 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 24 Jun 2022 Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022. Nate Silver · Factual · 24 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 10 Jun 2022 Humans do not explicitly pursue inclusive genetic fitness, although natural selection optimized on that simple loss function. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 10 Jun 2022 MIRI tried and failed to find a coherent formula for an agent that would let itself be shut down without actively trying to get shut down. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 10 Jun 2022 There is no known way to use loss functions, sensory inputs or reward inputs to make a cognitive system's optimization point at particular latent things in the environment. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 10 Jun 2022 Under the current optimization paradigm there is no general method known to get particular inner properties into an AI system or verify they are present. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 10 Jun 2022 Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Nate Silver Factual 6 Jun 2022 Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Nate Silver · Factual · 6 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Mixed Nate Silver Factual 27 May 2022 Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 May 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 26 May 2022 The prizes received by Geoffrey Hinton and by Demis Hassabis and John Jumper were very much for AI. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Gaming is the biggest digital entertainment category. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 About 20 years had passed since Microsoft launched Xbox, as of 2022. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Microsoft found that a direct connection to one's immediate manager was the biggest factor in effective onboarding. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Microsoft drew on Carol Dweck's growth mindset work, which helped it move from 'know-it-alls' to 'learn-it-alls'. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 24 May 2022 Microsoft's Flight Simulator, a PC game predating Xbox, is as old as Microsoft. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 21 May 2022 Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike. Nate Silver · Factual · 21 May 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 29 Apr 2022 Anthropic announced a new fundraising round on 2022-04-29. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 29 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time GiveWell Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false GiveWell Factual 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Delivered on time GiveWell Promise 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Apr 2022 The US government has a plan to create new vaccines within a few months to three months. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Apr 2022 Biosecurity
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 The original virtual reality devices that Zuckerberg referred to as the ones "we had" did not have hand presence. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Heat dissipation is one of the biggest limiting factors for processors running in smart glasses. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 A lot of research shows that people's social, economic and other opportunities are generally pretty anchored to where they physically are. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Promise 24 Mar 2022 Meta's next VR headset version will include eye sensors enabling realistic eye contact in virtual reality. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 Technology
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 When Mark Zuckerberg went to college, he planned to major in classics. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Other
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 24 Mar 2022 Workrooms is a VR product Meta built for collaboration. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 Mar 2022 Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Lydia Davis. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 14 Mar 2022 Early in the Russia-Ukraine war prediction markets gave Ukraine poor odds, and by March 2022 they were much more optimistic about Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Other global risks
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 9 Mar 2022 Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Daniela Amodei said she thinks some of "our employees" identify as effective altruists, which she said means they are especially worried about the potential for long-term harms from AI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Field building and careers
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 The goal of NIST's AI Risk Management Framework is to develop more monitoring tools for AI risk and its management. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Shareholders cannot sue Anthropic for failing to maximize financial returns when those conflict with its public benefit. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 As of 2022 there is no required disclosure of whether a person is interacting with an AI system or a human. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Daniela Amodei said Dario Amodei was getting a PhD in a technical field at the time and so was not working directly on the interest area she described, which she connected with her start in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic's PBC status legally ensures that, if profit and public benefit conflict, public benefit prevails. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 As a public benefit corporation, Anthropic has more legal protection from shareholders if it fails to maximize financial interests in favor of its public benefit mission. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic conducts interpretability research aimed at seeing inside language models and understanding their workings. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Public benefit corporations are fairly similar to C corporations, a standard corporate entity. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Stripe had about 40 people when Daniela Amodei joined. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic is currently focused on research and development rather than deployment of products for revenue. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 People use online therapists, and sometimes the advice is backed by an AI system. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Technology
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic is hiring a lot of people as of March 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 4 Mar 2022 Anthropic chose to incorporate as a public benefit corporation when it was founded. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual Mar 2022 In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 23 Feb 2022 Tyler Cowen published a multi-part Conversation with Chuck Klosterman, longer than usual. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 12 Feb 2022 TechCrunch interviewed Tyler Cowen about crypto. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 12 Feb 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 As of January 2022, Tesla is seeing alleviation of supply chain constraints in almost every area. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 27 Jan 2022 Many of the supply chain shortages affecting Tesla are alleviating as of January 2022. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 Anthropic pursues its mission primarily through generative model research and AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Other researchers and engineers have been using Anthropic's released interpretability tools and watching its videos. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei said she thinks part of what Anthropic's AI safety research is seeing is that different sized models exhibit different safety issues. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 A few jobs before Anthropic, Daniela Amodei worked at the tech startup Stripe. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic's internal scientists red-team its models by asking them questions to find unwanted behaviors. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined the startup Stripe when it had about 40 people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei joined Stripe when it was not much bigger than Anthropic is now. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI labs on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic does societal impacts research on the short- and medium-term effects of language models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
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Factual Their own work or organisation

“for most of my 30 years of professional career, 32 years now, was in the middle.”

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO, interviewee 24 May 2022 Satya Nadella is building the future (Transcript) – ReThinking with Adam Grant (TED)

Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2022-05-24. Nadella's career began around 1990 (Sun Microsystems), and he joined Microsoft in 1992. True if documented career history shows that for more than half of roughly 32 years (i.e., before he became CEO in 2014, or the large majority of that time) he held roles below the top executive level of his organisation, such as manager, general manager, vice president or division president, rather than CEO. This is the plain sense of being 'in the middle'. Mostly true if he held such intermediate roles for most of his career, with only a small discrepancy in the year count (e.g., 30 vs 32 years). Mixed if the record shows a roughly even split between intermediate roles and top-level or individual-contributor roles. Mostly false if most of his career was in roles clearly not 'in the middle' (e.g., mostly in entry-level individual-contributor roles, or mostly at the top), with only a minority in intermediate management. False if the documented career history contradicts the claim outright.

Evidence

  1. Satya Nadella | Worth Worth Magazine · 12 September 2017
    “Nadella worked across departments in his first 22 years at Microsoft, and he was leading its cloud and enterprise group when he was tapped to replace Steve Ballmer as CEO in 2014.”
  2. Satya Nadella biography: The salary and career history of Microsoft's new CEO ITPro · 7 February 2014
    “A Microsoft mainstay: Since joining the Redmond giant in 1992, Nadella has moved between departments every few years.”
  3. Satya Nadella biography: The salary and career history of Microsoft's new CEO ITPro · 7 February 2014
    “For instance, he served as vice president of the Microsoft Business Division, senior vice president of research and development for the Online Services division (2009 to 2011), and president of the software giant's $19 billion Server and Tools Business (2011 to 2013).”
  4. How Satya Nadella Worked His Way To The Top At Microsoft CRN · 5 February 2014
    “Over the years, Nadella has worked his way into a diverse set of roles at Microsoft, some engineering focused, others more business focused”

Reasoning

E1 says Nadella spent his first 22 years at Microsoft in roles across departments, and was leading the cloud and enterprise group when he became CEO in 2014. E3 lists his roles before he became CEO as vice president, senior vice president (2009–2011) and division president (2011–2013). E4 also describes a series of roles below CEO. That puts about 22 of his roughly 30–32 career years before the top job and only about 8 as CEO by May 2022. This meets the criteria's test of more than half of his career spent below the top executive level.

Cite this claim

Satya Nadella, “Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles.” (said 24 May 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_518d276e030b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_518d276e030b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.