Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 275 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 A factor graph is a general way to represent a graphical model. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 For decision making, we need no normalization. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 Sometimes, we do not need probabilities. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 The internal structure of the box is called the architecture of the model. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 A model measures the goodness of a combination of observed variables (X) and variables to be predicted (Y). Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 The questions are in increasing order of complexity. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 We can put anything we want in the box. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 Architecture + Inference Algo + Loss Function = Model Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 In general, we will search for the value of the latent variable that allows us to get an answer (Y) of smallest energy. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 The machine should be designed and trained to answer the simplest question possible. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 Z: is the latent variable (never observed). Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 Pick a loss function: in such a way that minimizing it with respect to W over a training set will make the inference algorithm find the… Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Not checkable Yann LeCun Not checkable 2005 When the robot faces an obstacle, it MUST turn left of right. Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Composer Elliott Carter was still composing prolifically beyond his ninetieth birthday. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Music is enough for one life, but one life is never enough for music Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 I used to think of Carter is an amazing composer in his early years (e.g., Sonata for Cello and Piano), but who later stagnated. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Byrd has one of the best claims running for “most underrated composer,” try also the vocal music. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Much of Handel is too earthy and straightforward for my tastes Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 So much of the Spanish acoustic guitar tradition makes sense when heard through this perspective. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Elliott Carter's late short pieces are usually written for a very small number of instruments. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Try his Ligeti Etudes or Debussy as well. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 The slow movement of the Emperor Concerto is one of Beethoven’s most beautiful moments. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 The scrunchiest parts are the best, and seven CDs are not too much. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Hardly anyone is drawn to the melodies here. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 This picture could not be more wrong. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 I now see it is as a precursor of modern ambient music. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 this is the best Handel recording I’ve heard, up there with S. Richter doing the keyboard sonatas. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 I used to think this piece was classical radio fluff, short, lightweight, and accessible. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 Here is an excellent blog post on why Handel operas and oratorio are less boring than the modern listener might think. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Over the ten years to 2004, Elliott Carter's reputation rose sharply. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 If you want to hear it swift and severe, try the Boulez recording as well. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Sep 2004 A sprawling mess, to be sure. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 21 Mar 2004 In other words, if we are lucky, income inequality will increase even more. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 21 Mar 2004
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 21 Mar 2004 War and other disruptions appear to damage capital income more than labor income. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 21 Mar 2004 Economics and markets
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 21 Mar 2004 If that is the case, a healthy and peaceful society might have increasing income inequality. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 21 Mar 2004
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Lead artist Brian Gillies wanted a shiny "atomic age" 1960s style for Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 I've always loved spy films from mainstream fare such as Bond, Mission: Impossible, and Austin Powers to the more obscure, the Fu Manchu… Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 It seemed a simple and fun premise for a game, and the more I thought about it the better the concept appeared. Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, the more the player gloats, the more notoriety is gained, and notoriety is key to progress. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not researched Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Hassabis is executive designer on Evil Genius, meeting regularly with Sandy Sammarco and producer Pete Gilbert to set direction. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not researched Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Sandy Sammarco is lead designer of Evil Genius and heads the design day to day. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 when I started to tentatively think about details, such as control and scope, the ideas flowed easily--always a really promising sign that… Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Delivered on time Demis Hassabis Promise 2004 Hassabis said Elixir was confident that players would get their hands on Evil Genius in fall 2004. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 2004 Other
Unresolvable Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Hassabis wrote the note "Be Dr. No" in his design notebook as a reminder to himself of a high concept he described as promising. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not researched Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Elixir Studios consciously chose Evil Genius as the game after Republic because it contrasted with Republic's seriousness. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 Wouldn't it be fun to play the role of a mad criminal mastermind bent on world domination? Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Own records only Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 The Elixir team has spent just over two years working full time on Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Own records only Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Hassabis acts as a sounding board on difficult design decisions for Evil Genius and safeguards its original vision. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Demis Hassabis first conceived the kernel of the idea for Evil Genius before Elixir Studios had started. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Unresolvable Michael Burry Factual 2004 By fall 2004 Countrywide Financial reported subprime mortgage originations up 158% year over year despite a 24% decline in overall originations, as Burry noted to investors. Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 Economics and markets
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 2004 Inflation-adjusted oil prices have declined for decades and are not even half what they were in the 1970s. Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 Economics and markets
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 Whilst we tried to distill what worked and what was addictive in those games, for the most part we've tried to strike our own path… Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, more gloating increases the chance that a captured agent turns the tables and escapes. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Evil Genius was influenced by non-spy classics such as Enter the Dragon and Flash Gordon. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 From the beginning, the aim was to make the most amusing strategy game around, whilst not compromising depth. Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 But perhaps the mechanic we are most proud of is that of "gloating." Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Not researched Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 X-Com, Dungeon Keeper and Theme Park all feature simulation, missions and base building. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Demis Hassabis Not checkable 2004 Naturally there had to be an underground volcanic lair. Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 2004 Since earlier in 2004, the Scion Funds have held long equity and distressed debt investments, domestic and foreign, positioned to benefit from higher oil prices. Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Information is very sacred, which is why death is a tragedy. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The 10^3-per-decade growth rate of computational capacity is conservative because the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said it is conservative to project that within 30 decades (300 years) current computational capacities would be multiplied by a factor of 10^90, exceeding Seth Lloyd's estimate of 10^90 bits in the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will be able to reverse-engineer the human brain because its complexity is manageable. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 When the event referred to happens again (apparently a threat from something that could be blasted "out of the sky"), human technology will be quite sufficient to deal with it. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 It may be very hard to do, but we’re talking about supremely intelligent technologies and beings. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Still, if you analyze this more carefully, it’s very unlikely in fact that they’re out there. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 It only takes a few hundred years! Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will have the scanning data and neuron models to build a model of the principles of operation of the human brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil has developed these models for a few decades and made many predictions about intelligent machines in the 1980s. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Human civilization's biological brains currently perform about 10^26 calculations per second in total. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Computing price-performance now doubles in less than one year, versus three years early in the 20th century and two years mid-century. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 One cannot predict the outcome of a cellular-automaton-type process unless one can simulate the process. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil conjectured that the other dimensions Alan and Paul talked about may offer shortcuts for reaching other parts of the universe faster. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 You can imagine that there’s one civilization out there that made that decision Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Our intelligence may be able to reach the whole universe (about 10^80 particles, ~10^90 bits per Seth Lloyd) without being limited by the speed of light. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 They’re going to be ahead of us by billions of years. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Intelligence will completely saturate the earth and solar system sometime in the 22nd century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 We can speculate about identity Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Computational capacity is currently being multiplied by a factor of at least 10^3 every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Machines can share their knowledge, for example by loading the learned software pattern of one computer into another. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI capabilities
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Those that are ahead of us are not going to be ahead of us by only a few years. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The Cambrian explosion established animal body plans that became a mature technology, so body plans did not need to evolve further. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The SETI assumption is that although another Earth-like intelligent civilization is very unlikely, there are billions of trillions of planets. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Humans will see a future cosmic impact coming and will deal with it, sending a probe to destroy the object. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Other global risks
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Essentially you have a universe that’s dominated by what I call dumb matter, because it’s controlled by fairly simple mechanical processes. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 The tragedy of losing historical artifacts is that we’re losing information. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 You need to transmit information, not randomness. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 We do not see extraterrestrial civilizations and have no indication of their existence, a challenge known as the Fermi paradox. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light limit could be overcome, within 300 years human-origin intelligence would saturate the whole universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Routine compression of the genome at about 30 to 1 gives about 23 million bytes, smaller than Microsoft Word, describing the brain's initial conditions. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Then perhaps they decided, in their great wisdom, to remain invisible to us. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Maybe they’re waiting for us to evolve to that point and then they’ll reveal themselves to us. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil predicted that, at a point he did not specify in the quoted passage, intelligence will have a profound effect on the cosmological destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 When people claim that we won’t see a particular development for a hundred years, or that something is going to take centuries to do… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 it’s only a matter of a few centuries before they get to a full realization of nanotechnology Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil said he thinks the SETI project will fail to find extraterrestrial intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction Technology

“The 21st century will see, because of the explosive power of exponential growth, something like 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress—a thousand times greater than the 20th century, which was no slouch for radical change.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author 12 December 2002 The Intelligent Universe (Kurzweil Library)

The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2100 is after 2026-10-30

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_4fa96c7587f0, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4fa96c7587f0

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.