Claims

Factual · Economics and markets

“The company has pre-sold 51% of inventory at its newest condominium tower, The Launiu, despite only having launched sales in February.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author · August 2024 · Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)

Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Howard Hughes' Q2 2024 earnings release, supplemental package or 10-Q (or another company disclosure from around August 2024) shows The Launiu in Ward Village with sales launched in February 2024 and about 51% of units pre-sold (rounding within ±1 pp). Mostly true: the pre-sale percentage is within 2–5 pp of 51%, or the launch month is off by one month. Mixed: the pre-sale percentage is off by 5–15 pp. Mostly false: the percentage is materially lower (more than 15 pp below), or the launch date differs substantially. False: there was no such tower or sales launch, or pre-sales were negligible.

Evidence

1. Document - SEC.gov Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (Exhibit 99.1 to SEC filing) · 26 July 2024

   “At quarter end, 51% of the tower’s 485 residences were pre-sold.”

2. Final phase emerging for Ward Village’s master-planned community in Kakaako | Honolulu Star-Advertiser Honolulu Star-Advertiser · 16 June 2024

   “An 11th tower at Ward Village, a project called Launiu Ward Village, had attracted buyers for 182 of its 485 units at the end of March, according to the developer, after sales began in February.”

Reasoning

The claim resolves true. Howard Hughes' Q2 2024 earnings release, filed with the SEC in July 2024, states that "at quarter end, 51% of the tower's 485 residences were pre-sold" (E1). That matches the 51% figure exactly. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser identifies Launiu Ward Village as a 485-unit tower whose sales began in February (E2). The matching unit count ties the E1 figure to The Launiu, and both the launch timing and the pre-sale percentage meet the criteria for true.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024.” (said August 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_4f611b8ae803, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4f611b8ae803