Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 48 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 Balaji Srinivasan graduated high school in 1997. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 There are many more English speakers outside the United States than within it, if India, Nigeria and similar countries are included. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Other
Mostly false Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Blockchain payment rails will structurally reduce financial fees over the coming years. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 In some ways, people who have large families will win the argument over family size, simply because they will have more children who in turn have more children; the speaker added that this is not really a logical argument. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Authentication will use a range of options (email, phone number, username, biometrics) chosen to fit each use case. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Drones are going to be a very big deal. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 Balaji Srinivasan knows how to stop using Facebook or Google if he wanted to. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The concepts bundled in an ICO will be unbundled and separated out in the years to come. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Token-based financing at a very small, individual level will take about 20 years (perhaps 10), not 5, to be realized. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 Software companies such as Andela are starting to emerge from Nigeria. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The exponential growth under discussion will top out and follow a logistic curve at some point, since no exponential can continue indefinitely. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Many people in places like Nigeria will work in new digital blue-collar jobs, such as Mechanical Turk-type tasks. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 AI-powered surveillance cameras may result in a very low-crime society. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 Proof-of-stake and delegated-proof-of-stake are consensus variants that work basically like shareholder votes. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 25 Apr 2018 It is possible to delete a Facebook account. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 25 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 The new systems under discussion will have a business model of some kind, and what are now called fees may shift to another part of the system. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 11 Apr 2018 Technology that is 100 years old will, statistically, last another 100 years. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 11 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 Taleb's first book was published about 20 years ago and is still selling. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 Taleb's Incerto is so far a five-volume investigation of luck, randomness and decision making under opacity. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 Only a third of Roman emperors died in their bed. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Other
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 Skin in the Game is the last volume of Taleb's Incerto series. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 The first 50 to 60 pages of Skin in the Game are about asymmetry, i.e. not transferring downside to others when one has more upside than downside. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 11 Apr 2018 It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Other
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 9 Apr 2018 Mark Zuckerberg started Facebook and runs it. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 9 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 9 Apr 2018 Facebook did not do enough to prevent its tools being used for harm regarding fake news, foreign election interference, hate speech, developers and data privacy. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 9 Apr 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Factual 2 Apr 2018 With Ethereum and ICOs, startup funding has begun to decentralize. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 2 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Migrant-type labor could eventually become software-driven via remote robots, allowing workers to earn higher wages. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 It is likely that there will be more news in the 'news-you-can-use' category, such as tutorials, which readers can check themselves by going through each line as they read it. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 He said he thinks that, in general, the countries that will win the future will be software-savvy small countries such as Estonia, Singapore and Israel, with China as the one major exception to the small-country pattern. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Other global risks
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Eventually, humanoid robots combined with a VR bodysuit will let people script and control a robot from around the world, maybe in 10 years, seeing through the robot's eyes and moving its arms through the bodysuit. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Interesting telepresence capabilities are about 5 to 10 years away. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 2 Apr 2018 Once telepresence robots improve, a country's immigration policy will effectively become its firewall, as people can 'immigrate' remotely via internet-controlled robots. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 2 Apr 2018 Technology
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Studies show that people evaluating data from a politically neutral hypothetical experiment, such as a skin cream's efficacy, interpret the numbers reasonably well. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 According to one estimate, coal kills about a million people a year. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Enlightenment thinkers did not know evolution or thermodynamics. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Pinker says his book acknowledges that environmental concern is good and credits the Green movement for highlighting harms from pollution. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Intelligence is in good part heritable. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Asked whether "it" was coming more from the faculty or the students, Pinker said he thinks a lot of it comes from the student life bureaucracy, such as deans, associate deans, Title IX administrators and affirmative action administrators. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Most of "our" pollution, as distinct from pollution in the developing world, cannot be exported because it is involved in power generation, home heating and similar activities. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 For most of human history, life expectancy was about 30 years. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Other
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 22 Mar 2018 Studies show that when data concern a political hot-button issue such as concealed weapon laws, people systematically misread it in the direction favoring their coalition's position. Steven Pinker · Factual · 22 Mar 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky said that, as far as the rest of the world knows, the participant in an AI-box experiment later sent a PGP-signed email saying "I let Eliezer out of the box." Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, they will scale too fast for an economic framing to be a useful way to view the problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 One condition of the AI-box experiment was that no one would ever say what went on inside it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 At the time of the interview, Eliezer Yudkowsky said he did not remember whether the person being discussed, apparently Robin, had yet replied to a particular point. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 Even most scientists in the field had no idea how to build a nuclear bomb until the Hiroshima headlines. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Very powerful and smart AI systems will redesign and improve themselves unless prevented for some reason. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 Nobody currently knows how to build a safe, friendly ("nice") AI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 No AI development will ever look like a socially agreed, undeniable fire alarm for AGI. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Once artificial general intelligence capabilities exist, something like AlphaZero going "from 0 to 120 mph in four hours or a day" is not out of the question. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 Thanks mostly to the cryptocurrency boom, MIRI is no longer short of funds and is instead short of engineering talent. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky said he was pretty sure he was not the one who invented the term under discussion. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Other
Own records only Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 MIRI has some communication with DeepMind's upper people, though the bandwidth is not optimal. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 An AI built narrowly enough to be understood will not be able to defend against arbitrary unrestrained superintelligences. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky thinks AGI will be built on purpose about 10 years before it would otherwise happen by accident. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 AlphaZero surpassed human Go knowledge in less than a day starting from scratch, without human games, theories or Go-specific code beyond what chess used. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 The first artificial general intelligence will be built in a research lab specifically dedicated to building it, not arise spontaneously from an unrelated system. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Yudkowsky said he thinks the artificial general intelligence timeline is likely to run out before humanity gets much better at solving inadequacy and systemic problems in general. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 28 Feb 2018 Better anti-virus software will not give automatic defense against superintelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 28 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Research failed Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 28 Feb 2018 The experiment in which people stay in a smoke-filling room when others look calm is pretty well replicated, with many variations finding basically the same result, though he said he did not want to put absolute faith in it because of the replication crisis. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 28 Feb 2018 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that one Bitcoin would cost above $1,000, in a prediction with a deadline of 15 February 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into a formal institution limited to college grads with good job prospects. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Murder rates in the Middle Ages were about 35 times higher than they are today. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 When the automobile was introduced there was a massive increase in the rate of accidental deaths, and likewise in factories when steam-powered machinery came in. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Many data sets show that rates of violence have gone down over the course of history. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 American conservatives and the Republican Party have flip-flopped on core beliefs such as sympathy for Russia and dictatorships, Christian virtues, and free trade. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 The world has drastically reduced rates of poverty, starvation, disease, illiteracy, keeping girls out of school, and work hours. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now was a follow-up to his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Many religions today accommodate themselves to scientific knowledge, including the Copernican view and the theory of evolution. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 13 Feb 2018 Fact-checking mechanisms such as PolitiFact and Snopes have increased in the last 20 years. Steven Pinker · Factual · 13 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 During transcendental meditation, the prefrontal cortex lights up and is enhanced. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has practiced transcendental meditation since 1969. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio walked onto the New York Stock Exchange floor expecting a collapse, and the stock market instead rose sharply. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Combining 15 uncorrelated bets reduces risk by over 80 percent. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Diversifying across bets that are 60 percent correlated reduces risk by only about 15 percent, perhaps slightly more. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio made a 30-minute video called How the Economic Machine Works, available on YouTube. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has liquidated positions to take risk off the table when certain events occurred and he was uncertain. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 24 percent of the population has been diagnosed with some form of mental illness. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 The top 0.2 percent of the population has a net worth about equal to that of the bottom 90 percent combined. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Dalio recalls when "we" got the Kodak account, which he describes as a big deal because Kodak was a big, important client and the account was a stamp of institutional approval. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said his video on YouTube had been downloaded 5,000,000 times and was highly rated. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio analyzed the payments countries owed banks and calculated that those countries would not be able to repay the U.S. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 People with bipolar disorder are often very creative. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio said he believes that if economies were to go down now, there would be a great deal of conflict. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 After a 50% loss in value, an investment needs a 100% return to get back to its starting value. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 1 Feb 2018 Ray Dalio has never liquidated investment positions because of stress. Ray Dalio · Factual · 1 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”

Scott Alexander, blog author 15 February 2018 Five More Years (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

This is a probabilistic forecast; judge whether the event happened. True if, at some point in calendar 2023, Scott Alexander publicly graded the predictions from his February 2018 post (the five-year predictions), e.g. in a blog post scoring them. Mostly true if the grading was published in 2023 but covered most rather than all of the predictions. Mostly false if he graded them, but only after 31 December 2023, or only in passing without real grading. False if a 2023 or later record shows no grading in 2023, e.g. he graded them in 2024 or said he had forgotten.

Evidence

  1. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023 Own record
    “Last week was the tenth anniversary of my old blog (I accept your congratulations), so it's time to look back on my terrible doomed 2018 predictions and see how I did at predicting the last half decade, starting with:”
  2. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023 Own record
    “I grade 1, 5, and 6 as coming true; 2, 3, and 4 as not coming true, and 7 as “more”, all of which I got directionally correct.”
  3. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023 Own record
    “My biggest failure here was 10, where I gave Roe vs. Wade only a 1% chance (!) of being overturned!”
  4. Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 — Scott Alexander, curated ACX Index (unofficial fan index, not affiliated with Scott Alexander) · 20 February 2023
    “Scott grades his 2018 five-year predictions across AI, world affairs, US culture/politics, economics, science/tech, and x-risks (best call: AI generating images/stories to a prompt; worst: giving Roe's overturn only 1%), then lays out fresh 2028 predictions”

Reasoning

E1 is a post titled "Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023", dated 2023-02-20, in which Scott Alexander says it is time to look back on his 2018 predictions. E2 and E3 show him scoring specific numbered predictions, including the Roe v. Wade forecast. E4 is an independent fan index, and it describes the same post as grading his 2018 five-year predictions across AI, world affairs, US culture and politics, economics, science and tech, and x-risks. So the event he gave 90% odds to did happen in calendar 2023.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_4d7337c4c4b1, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4d7337c4c4b1

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.