Claims

Factual · Technology

“It launched on December 20th and achieved orbit, but due to software failures it was the wrong orbit and there was not enough fuel left to get it to the ISS.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author · 1 January 2020 · Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Starliner launched on December 20, 2019 and reached orbit, but due to software failures it was in the wrong orbit and lacked fuel to reach the ISS.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Four parts: (a) Starliner launched on 20 December 2019; (b) it reached orbit; (c) software failures put it in the wrong orbit; (d) as a result it could not reach the ISS for lack of fuel. True: NASA/Boeing records show the Orbital Flight Test launched 20 December 2019 and reached orbit, a software error (e.g. the mission elapsed timer fault) caused an off-nominal orbit or insertion burn, and the excess propellant used meant the ISS docking was cancelled. Mostly true: everything holds except a minor slip in detail, e.g. the docking was called off mainly because propellant reserves were insufficient under mission rules rather than literally no fuel. Mixed: launch and orbit are correct but the cause or the fuel explanation is substantially wrong. Mostly false: the date is wrong, or the failure to reach the ISS was mainly due to something other than software and fuel. False: Starliner did reach the ISS, or did not reach orbit.

Evidence

1. Boeing crew capsule falters after launch from Cape Canaveral Spaceflight Now · 20 December 2019

   “Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule flew into the wrong orbit soon after lifting off from Cape Canaveral on an unpiloted demonstration flight Friday morning, burning too much fuel and precluding the new commercial spaceship from docking with the International Space Station.”

2. Boeing Starliner Completes First Orbital Flight Test with Successful Landing Boeing (PRNewswire) · 22 December 2019

   “Shortly after its December 20 launch and separation from its booster rocket, Starliner experienced a mission timing anomaly that made it use too much fuel to reach the intended destination of the International Space Station.”

3. Starliner makes a safe landing—now NASA faces some big decisions Ars Technica · 22 December 2019

   “With the on-board propellant remaining, Starliner did not have sufficient reserves to approach the International Space Station and perform a rendezvous and docking with the orbiting laboratory—a key objective of this flight test before NASA allows its astronauts to fly on the capsule into space.”

4. NASA Statement on Boeing Orbital Flight Test - NASA NASA · 21 December 2019

   “While a lot of things went right, the uncrewed spacecraft did not reach the planned orbit and will not dock to the International Space Station.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 both date Starliner's launch to December 20, 2019. E1 says the capsule "flew into the wrong orbit" and burned too much fuel to dock with the ISS, and E4 (NASA) confirms it missed the planned orbit and would not dock. E2 attributes the problem to a mission timing anomaly, which is consistent with the timer fault the criteria give as an example. E3 says there was not enough propellant left for the ISS rendezvous, which matches the claim's "not enough fuel left."

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Starliner launched on December 20, 2019 and reached orbit, but due to software failures it was in the wrong orbit and lacked fuel to reach the ISS.” (said 1 January 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3da140a77631, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3da140a77631