Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 28 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Sep 2023 Meta's Quest 3 will be the first mainstream mixed reality product. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Promise 28 Sep 2023 Meta will release a first version of AI avatar expression soon after its Connect event in September 2023. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 Zuckerberg often receives criticism for having a relatively stiff facial expression. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Other
Delivered on time Mark Zuckerberg Promise 28 Sep 2023 Meta is releasing the Quest 3 headset at a price of $500. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 28 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Sep 2023 Zuckerberg said he thinks Quest 3 is going to be the first mixed reality device that millions of people get. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 28 Sep 2023 Zuckerberg said he thinks that blending the digital and physical worlds will make it possible to embody AIs. His example was a future meeting where an AI team member takes part alongside people who are there in person and people who appear as holograms. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 Meta is always training another model beyond its current released one. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 Social networks are now, roughly speaking, in a period where most content is video. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 Meta made AI characters based on Jane Austen and Marcus Aurelius. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 In Meta's internal experiments, people had no issues blending photorealistic and non-photorealistic elements in the same scene. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Mark Zuckerberg Factual 28 Sep 2023 Meta's Kodak Avatars are much more bandwidth efficient than transmitting full video or 3D immersive video of a scene. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 Technology
Own records only Nate Silver Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has occasionally voted Republican or independent for state or local office. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nate Silver Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has voted Democrat for president in every election since he was old enough, except 2012, when he did not vote. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nate Silver Factual 12 Sep 2023 Nate Silver has consistently scored in about the same place on the Political Compass test for many years. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual 12 Sep 2023 In spring 2016, Nate Silver registered as a Republican to vote for John Kasich in the New York presidential primary. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 Subscribers to Silver Bulletin will keep paying the price they signed up for as long as they remain continually subscribed, even if the price rises for new subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 If Nate Silver stops regularly writing Silver Bulletin, he will suspend payment on monthly subscriptions. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 Most answers in the paid Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin will be behind the paywall. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nate Silver Promise 11 Sep 2023 If Nate Silver stops regularly writing Silver Bulletin, he will provide a low-friction option for a prorated refund for annual subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Nate Silver Factual 11 Sep 2023 The median Silver Bulletin post now gets about the same views as the median post Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, with less variance (higher floor, lower ceiling so far). Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Sep 2023 On Substack, subscriptions automatically renew at the price the subscriber signed up for. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Own records only Nate Silver Factual 11 Sep 2023 Substack staff told Nate Silver that suspending monthly payments and prorated annual refunds is relatively easy to do. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 Technology
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 8 Sep 2023 The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Sep 2023 The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polls from around September 2015 can be found showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Sep 2023 Polling conducted this early in a US presidential cycle has historically had little to no predictive power for the election result. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Mostly false Nate Silver Prediction 8 Sep 2023 If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Richard Nixon created a project in 1972 called Project Independence, and proposed building 1,000 new US nuclear reactors. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 Andreessen guessed that within a couple of years of 2023, the dominant discussion about AI would be the United States or the West versus China. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 In the research literature, IQ is typically linked to outcomes with a correlation of about 0.4 to 0.5. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Own records only Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Andreessen Horowitz holds certain meetings where everyone puts their phones face down. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Ray Kurzweil kind of took that idea to the next level and applied it specifically to AI. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 AI will be one of the key technologies shaping the world for hundreds of years, amid a new Cold War dynamic between the US and China. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Andreessen said that, in his view, virtually all new technologies have historically turned out to be net positive, at least from where we sit today. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Technology
Unresolvable Marc Andreessen Factual 2 Sep 2023 Vernor Vinge was probably the origin of the idea of the technological singularity, which Andreessen thought went back to the 1970s. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 22 Aug 2023 Decision-makers who turned down an early computer saw no importance in computation. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 22 Aug 2023 Technology
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 9 Aug 2023 Eli Lilly's stock jumped nearly 15% on the trading day before 2023-08-09. Jim Cramer · Factual · 9 Aug 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Control of powerful AI models five years from now will involve substantial involvement of a government or assembly of government bodies. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei did not think AI scaling would hit a wall, and a few other people shared that view, when a wall was a more plausible case. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Danger from AI may lead to unilateral, multilateral or government-enforced decisions not to scale as fast as possible, which Anthropic supports. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI policy and governance
Own records only Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic's security measures will defend against most attacks and against a less determined state-level actor. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 As of 2023, the model can be very good at coding but can't quite prove the prime number theorem yet. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic has generally found that hired physics PhDs can learn machine learning and contribute very quickly in most cases. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Field building and careers
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic published a blog post on security stating it has a two-key system for access to model weights. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Powerful, agentic AI models will be built. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Amodei guessed that reinforcement learning will become a thing for models taking actions in the world, with all the power and safety issues that come with it. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic has worked to ensure the data center used for its models is located in the United States. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 As of August 2023, mechanistic interpretability is not nearly capable enough to verify that a model is aligned. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI developers could run out of training data, which would limit scaling. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 AI scaling laws are sometimes predictable to several significant figures, which is not seen outside of physics. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 As of 2023, many firms rushing to deploy AI systems are not using them in anywhere near the most efficient way possible. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 If China sees AI as a source of national power, it will try the most effective approach, which could lead it toward AGI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Running out of training data will not be a blocker to AI scaling. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Existing alignment methods succeed in aligning AI systems for today's tasks. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Current AI models may be superhuman or close to superhuman at constrained writing, such as writing a page without the letter E. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei has pushed for better cybersecurity at every organisation where he has worked. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Amodei said Anthropic "kind of" already does reinforcement learning, through RLHF. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic's current security measures are not sufficient against a super determined state-level actor. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 In Dario Amodei's view, AI models would keep getting better across the board; he said he did not see any area where the models were very weak or not starting to make progress. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI models that act like a generally well-educated human in an hour-long conversation could exist within two or three years of August 2023. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic's initial constitution for its models drew on broadly agreed sources such as the UN Declaration of Human Rights and parts of Apple's Terms of Service. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei formed his view on scaling gradually between 2014 and 2017. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI models will undertake extended tasks. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei said it seemed likely to him that AI systems will first speed up human productivity, then equal it, and at some point become in some meaningful sense the main contributor to scientific progress, though he expected the details to be different from what people expect. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 AI models will not have enough autonomy within two years to raise alignment concerns, though that may not be far behind. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 The models' current level of performance, which the speaker graded as a B or B minus, will change with scaling. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei does not expect RL training for longer-horizon tasks to require a substantial amount of additional compute. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Interpretability work on language models, such as induction heads, suggests much of the cognitive machinery needed for active agents is already present in base language models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 AI language models learn to speak fluent Base64, which humans do not typically learn. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Biosecurity
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Anthropic is focusing heavily on cybersecurity, including working with its cloud providers. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Serious danger from scaled AI models will first come from misuse, such as biorisk, rather than misalignment. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Dario Amodei Factual 8 Aug 2023 Every traditional investor who invests in Anthropic looks at its unusual governance body. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 Dario Amodei said he personally thinks it is very unlikely that AI scaling laws will just stop. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Aug 2023 In The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), Kurzweil predicted computers would pass the Turing Test by 2029. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Aug 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual 5 Jul 2023 Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jun 2023 MIT Technology Review published a piece by Melissa Heikkilä about Meta's stance on AI existential risks, with quotes from Joelle Pineau and Yann LeCun. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jun 2023 The US is a clear outlier among developed countries in healthcare cost and outcomes. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2023 Other
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jun 2023 The audience YES/NO split at the Munk Debate was 67/33 before the debate and 63/37 after. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jun 2023 In the official result of the Munk Debate on AI existential threat, the NO side (Mitchell and LeCun) won by 4% over the YES side (Tegmark and Bengio). Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jun 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 27 Jun 2023 Clément Delangue defended AI open science and open source in his congressional testimony. Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 24 Jun 2023 Rodney Brooks gave a keynote at CVPR 2023 on Tuesday 20 June 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 24 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 23 Jun 2023 Max Tegmark is a professor at MIT. Yann LeCun · Factual · 23 Jun 2023 Their own work or organisation
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Dario Amodei

Open its page

Prediction AI compute, hardware and data

“I expect the price, the amount of money spent on the largest models, to go up by like a factor of 100 or something.”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO 8 August 2023 Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) - $10 Billion Models, OpenAI, Scaling, & AGI in 2 years (Dwarkesh Podcast)

Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Prediction of a 100x spending rise with no stated horizon.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100.” (said 8 August 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_38af8befeeed, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_38af8befeeed

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.