Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Prediction of a 100x spending rise with no stated horizon.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Dario Amodei expects the money spent on the largest AI models to rise by something like a factor of 100.” (said 8 August 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_38af8befeeed, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_38af8befeeed
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.