Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

18 claims

18 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Demis Hassabis Promise 20 May 2026 Google DeepMind will release a Gemini 3.5 Pro model following Gemini 3.5 Flash. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 May 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Warren Buffett Promise 5 May 2024 Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 3 Mar 2021 SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 16 Jun 2017 SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
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Elon Musk

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“Starship launch tomorrow. Window opens at 9am.”

Elon Musk, posting on X 3 March 2021 Post by @elonmusk on X, 2021-03-03 (X)

SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Promise that SpaceX would attempt a Starship launch on 4 Mar 2021, with the window opening at 9am (Central time). True: SpaceX attempted a Starship flight (SN10) on 4 Mar 2021, with that day's window opening at about 9am, whether or not the flight succeeded. Mostly true: the launch attempt or launch happened on 4 Mar 2021, but the window timing differed somewhat. Mostly false: the attempt moved to a later date. False: records show there was no Starship launch attempt on 4 Mar 2021.

Evidence

  1. List of Starship upper stage flight tests - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “3 March 2021 23:15[33][34] | Starship SN10 | Suborbital Pad A | 10 km (33,000 ft)[35]”
  2. Watch SpaceX launch and (hopefully) land its giant 10th Starship prototype today Live Science · 3 March 2021
    “Update, 3:33 p.m. ET, March 3: SpaceX attempted to launch SN10 at 3:14 p.m. ET, but aborted one-tenth of a second before liftoff, just after the rockets fired.”
  3. Update on SpaceX Starship SN10 Launch - The Tech Outlook The Tech Outlook · 3 March 2021
    “It’s confirmed that the third attempt to launch and land its Mars-bound Starship spacecraft will be on March 3. The launch window runs from 9 am local time (3 pm GMT) until 6 pm (12 am GMT, Thursday)”
  4. SpaceX Starship SN10 livestream: Watch flight test and ... CNBC · 3 March 2021
    “Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing to launch the latest prototype of its next-generation Starship rocket on Wednesday, in the third high-altitude flight test of the system.”

Reasoning

The criteria require a Starship launch attempt on 4 March 2021. The evidence shows that SN10's attempts and flight took place on 3 March 2021: Live Science reported an aborted attempt at 3:14 p.m. ET on 3 March (E2), and the Wikipedia flight list records the SN10 flight on 3 March 2021 at 23:15 (E1). The 9am local window applied to 3 March (E3), and the flight record lists the SN10 flight on 3 March rather than 4 March (E1). Read as written, the criteria resolve this as false.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am.” (said 3 March 2021). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_340899c6a579, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_340899c6a579

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.