| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
A factor graph is a general way to represent a graphical model.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
For decision making, we need no normalization.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
Sometimes, we do not need probabilities.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
The internal structure of the box is called the architecture of the model.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
A model measures the goodness of a combination of observed variables (X) and variables to be predicted (Y).
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
The questions are in increasing order of complexity.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
We can put anything we want in the box.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
Architecture + Inference Algo + Loss Function = Model
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
In general, we will search for the value of the latent variable that allows us to get an answer (Y) of smallest energy.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
The machine should be designed and trained to answer the simplest question possible.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
Z: is the latent variable (never observed).
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
Pick a loss function: in such a way that minimizing it with respect to W over a training set will make the inference algorithm find the…
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Not checkable |
Yann LeCun | Not checkable |
2005 |
When the robot faces an obstacle, it MUST turn left of right.
Yann LeCun · Not checkable · 2005 |
|
| Resolved true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
5 Sep 2004 |
Composer Elliott Carter was still composing prolifically beyond his ninetieth birthday.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Music is enough for one life, but one life is never enough for music
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
I used to think of Carter is an amazing composer in his early years (e.g., Sonata for Cello and Piano), but who later stagnated.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Byrd has one of the best claims running for “most underrated composer,” try also the vocal music.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Much of Handel is too earthy and straightforward for my tastes
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
So much of the Spanish acoustic guitar tradition makes sense when heard through this perspective.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
5 Sep 2004 |
Elliott Carter's late short pieces are usually written for a very small number of instruments.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Try his Ligeti Etudes or Debussy as well.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
The slow movement of the Emperor Concerto is one of Beethoven’s most beautiful moments.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
The scrunchiest parts are the best, and seven CDs are not too much.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Hardly anyone is drawn to the melodies here.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
This picture could not be more wrong.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
I now see it is as a precursor of modern ambient music.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
this is the best Handel recording I’ve heard, up there with S. Richter doing the keyboard sonatas.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
I used to think this piece was classical radio fluff, short, lightweight, and accessible.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
Here is an excellent blog post on why Handel operas and oratorio are less boring than the modern listener might think.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
5 Sep 2004 |
Over the ten years to 2004, Elliott Carter's reputation rose sharply.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
If you want to hear it swift and severe, try the Boulez recording as well.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
5 Sep 2004 |
A sprawling mess, to be sure.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Sep 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
21 Mar 2004 |
In other words, if we are lucky, income inequality will increase even more.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 21 Mar 2004 |
|
| Mostly true |
Tyler Cowen | Factual |
21 Mar 2004 |
War and other disruptions appear to damage capital income more than labor income.
Tyler Cowen · Factual · 21 Mar 2004 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Tyler Cowen | Not checkable |
21 Mar 2004 |
If that is the case, a healthy and peaceful society might have increasing income inequality.
Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 21 Mar 2004 |
|
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Lead artist Brian Gillies wanted a shiny "atomic age" 1960s style for Evil Genius.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
I've always loved spy films from mainstream fare such as Bond, Mission: Impossible, and Austin Powers to the more obscure, the Fu Manchu…
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
It seemed a simple and fun premise for a game, and the more I thought about it the better the concept appeared.
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
In Evil Genius, the more the player gloats, the more notoriety is gained, and notoriety is key to progress.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not researched |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Hassabis is executive designer on Evil Genius, meeting regularly with Sandy Sammarco and producer Pete Gilbert to set direction.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not researched |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Sandy Sammarco is lead designer of Evil Genius and heads the design day to day.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
when I started to tentatively think about details, such as control and scope, the ideas flowed easily--always a really promising sign that…
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Delivered on time |
Demis Hassabis | Promise |
2004 |
Hassabis said Elixir was confident that players would get their hands on Evil Genius in fall 2004.
Demis Hassabis · Promise · 2004 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Hassabis wrote the note "Be Dr. No" in his design notebook as a reminder to himself of a high concept he described as promising.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not researched |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Elixir Studios consciously chose Evil Genius as the game after Republic because it contrasted with Republic's seriousness.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
Wouldn't it be fun to play the role of a mad criminal mastermind bent on world domination?
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Own records only |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
The Elixir team has spent just over two years working full time on Evil Genius.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Own records only |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Hassabis acts as a sounding board on difficult design decisions for Evil Genius and safeguards its original vision.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Demis Hassabis first conceived the kernel of the idea for Evil Genius before Elixir Studios had started.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2004 |
By fall 2004 Countrywide Financial reported subprime mortgage originations up 158% year over year despite a 24% decline in overall originations, as Burry noted to investors.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2004 |
Inflation-adjusted oil prices have declined for decades and are not even half what they were in the 1970s.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
Whilst we tried to distill what worked and what was addictive in those games, for the most part we've tried to strike our own path…
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Resolved true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
In Evil Genius, more gloating increases the chance that a captured agent turns the tables and escapes.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Evil Genius was influenced by non-spy classics such as Enter the Dragon and Flash Gordon.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
From the beginning, the aim was to make the most amusing strategy game around, whilst not compromising depth.
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
But perhaps the mechanic we are most proud of is that of "gloating."
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Not researched |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
X-Com, Dungeon Keeper and Theme Park all feature simulation, missions and base building.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Demis Hassabis | Not checkable |
2004 |
Naturally there had to be an underground volcanic lair.
Demis Hassabis · Not checkable · 2004 |
|
| Own records only |
Michael Burry | Factual |
2004 |
Since earlier in 2004, the Scion Funds have held long equity and distressed debt investments, domestic and foreign, positioned to benefit from higher oil prices.
Michael Burry · Factual · 2004 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Demis Hassabis | Factual |
2004 |
Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused.
Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Information is very sacred, which is why death is a tragedy.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
The 10^3-per-decade growth rate of computational capacity is conservative because the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Kurzweil said it is conservative to project that within 30 decades (300 years) current computational capacities would be multiplied by a factor of 10^90, exceeding Seth Lloyd's estimate of 10^90 bits in the universe.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Humans will be able to reverse-engineer the human brain because its complexity is manageable.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
When the event referred to happens again (apparently a threat from something that could be blasted "out of the sky"), human technology will be quite sufficient to deal with it.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
It may be very hard to do, but we’re talking about supremely intelligent technologies and beings.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Still, if you analyze this more carefully, it’s very unlikely in fact that they’re out there.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
It only takes a few hundred years!
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Within 25 years of 2002, humans will have the scanning data and neuron models to build a model of the principles of operation of the human brain.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Kurzweil has developed these models for a few decades and made many predictions about intelligent machines in the 1980s.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Human civilization's biological brains currently perform about 10^26 calculations per second in total.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Computing price-performance now doubles in less than one year, versus three years early in the 20th century and two years mid-century.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
One cannot predict the outcome of a cellular-automaton-type process unless one can simulate the process.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Kurzweil conjectured that the other dimensions Alan and Paul talked about may offer shortcuts for reaching other parts of the universe faster.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
You can imagine that there’s one civilization out there that made that decision
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Our intelligence may be able to reach the whole universe (about 10^80 particles, ~10^90 bits per Seth Lloyd) without being limited by the speed of light.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
They’re going to be ahead of us by billions of years.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Intelligence will completely saturate the earth and solar system sometime in the 22nd century.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
We can speculate about identity
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Computational capacity is currently being multiplied by a factor of at least 10^3 every decade.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Machines can share their knowledge, for example by loading the learned software pattern of one computer into another.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Those that are ahead of us are not going to be ahead of us by only a few years.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
The Cambrian explosion established animal body plans that became a mature technology, so body plans did not need to evolve further.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Not researched |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
The SETI assumption is that although another Earth-like intelligent civilization is very unlikely, there are billions of trillions of planets.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Humans will see a future cosmic impact coming and will deal with it, sending a probe to destroy the object.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Other global risks |
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
The 21st century will see about 20,000 years of progress at today's rate, a thousand times the 20th century.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Essentially you have a universe that’s dominated by what I call dumb matter, because it’s controlled by fairly simple mechanical processes.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
The tragedy of losing historical artifacts is that we’re losing information.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
You need to transmit information, not randomness.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
We do not see extraterrestrial civilizations and have no indication of their existence, a challenge known as the Fermi paradox.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Not yet due |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
If the speed of light limit could be overcome, within 300 years human-origin intelligence would saturate the whole universe.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Routine compression of the genome at about 30 to 1 gives about 23 million bytes, smaller than Microsoft Word, describing the brain's initial conditions.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Then perhaps they decided, in their great wisdom, to remain invisible to us.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
Maybe they’re waiting for us to evolve to that point and then they’ll reveal themselves to us.
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Resolved true |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Kurzweil predicted that, at a point he did not specify in the quoted passage, intelligence will have a profound effect on the cosmological destiny of the universe.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
When people claim that we won’t see a particular development for a hundred years, or that something is going to take centuries to do…
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Not checkable |
Ray Kurzweil | Not checkable |
12 Dec 2002 |
it’s only a matter of a few centuries before they get to a full realization of nanotechnology
Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002 |
|
| Mostly true |
Ray Kurzweil | Factual |
12 Dec 2002 |
Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year.
Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Ray Kurzweil | Prediction |
12 Dec 2002 |
Kurzweil said he thinks the SETI project will fail to find extraterrestrial intelligence.
Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 |
Science and research methods |