Claims

Prediction · Economics and markets

“So this is going to do is it's going to force everybody to look at remote work as not a auxiliary, but as a primary.”

Balaji Srinivasan, podcast guest · 13 March 2020 · #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Horizon: end-2021. Read 'everybody' as broadly across employers whose work can be done remotely, not as literally every worker. TRUE: survey data (e.g. BLS, Census Pulse, Gallup, WFH Research) show that during the pandemic a large majority of remote-capable workers worked primarily remotely, and that organisations broadly reorganised around remote work as the main mode, not a fallback. MOSTLY TRUE: remote work became primary for most remote-capable workers during the pandemic, but many employers treated it as temporary and moved back toward the office by end-2021. MIXED: remote work became primary for a substantial minority, or only in certain sectors, while many remote-capable employers kept it auxiliary. MOSTLY FALSE: remote work rose but stayed secondary for most remote-capable workers. FALSE: no broad shift to primarily remote work took place.

Evidence

1. Workers ages 25 to 54 more likely to telework due to COVID–19 in February 2021 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily · 11 March 2021

   “Nearly 1 in 4 people (22.7 percent) employed in February 2021 teleworked or worked at home for pay because of the COVID–19 pandemic. This is down from 35.4 percent in May 2020, the first month these data were collected.”

2. What the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic could mean for the future of IT jobs U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Beyond the Numbers · 24 February 2022

   “Global Workplace Analytics conducted a survey in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, which found that 77 percent of office-based workers were working remotely full time, compared with 9 percent before the start of the pandemic.”

3. What the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic could mean for the future of IT jobs U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Beyond the Numbers · 24 February 2022

   “According to a survey of full-time U.S. employees conducted by Gallup, 45 percent of workers worked from home either all or part of the time during September 2021, which was consistent with the 2 months prior.”

Reasoning

A BLS article cites a Global Workplace Analytics survey finding that 77 percent of office-based workers worked remotely full time in the early months of the pandemic, compared with 9 percent before it [E3]. That points to remote work becoming the main mode for most office-based workers in the early months of the pandemic. BLS data show the share of all employed people who teleworked or worked at home for pay because of the pandemic fell from 35.4 percent in May 2020 to 22.7 percent in February 2021 [E2]. By September 2021, Gallup found 45 percent of full-time employees working from home all or part of the time, consistent with the two prior months [E4]; this is a different measure and population from the early-pandemic figure. The evidence indicates remote work was the main mode for most office-based workers early in the pandemic [E3], and that pandemic-related telework then declined on a consistent BLS measure [E2], which the judges read as MOSTLY TRUE. The evidence on whether organisations reorganised around remote work for good is limited.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “The pandemic will force everybody to treat remote work as primary rather than auxiliary.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_303d11ff0560, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_303d11ff0560