6,750 claims · page 53 of 68
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Trump only a 20 percent chance of winning given his polling numbers at the time of the second debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Other |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | The two scientific polls after the second 2016 presidential debate showed a Clinton win, but a more marginal one than after the first debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | Silver said that all the scientific polls after the first 2016 presidential debate showed Clinton had won by a pretty emphatic margin. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | Silver said he thought "we" had the team, then playing in the NLDS, at "a 35 percent chance or something" of winning the three series in a row it still needed, and that the figure was rising. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Other |
| Mixed | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Oct 2016 | Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Promise | 28 Jul 2016 | LeCun will teach his NYU deep learning course again in the Spring of 2017. Yann LeCun · Promise · 28 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | There have been a number of recent works putting graphical models on top of ConvNets and training end to end. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | There have been many proposals to combine neural nets and structured prediction, going back to the early 1990s. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | The check reading system LeCun and a colleague built at Bell Labs in the early 1990s used structured prediction on top of convolutional nets, called Graph Transformer Networks. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | Videos of LeCun's 2015 NYU deep learning course lectures were taken down for legal reasons, while the slides remain available. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | Yann LeCun gave a recent series of 8 lectures on deep learning at Collège de France in Paris. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 28 Jul 2016 | LeCun's Collège de France lectures were taught in French and later dubbed in English. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Berkshire has a provision that in any corporate transaction Class A stock cannot be treated differently from Class B stock. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Buffett has given away about 40% of his Berkshire shares as of July 2016. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Thiel does not agree with every plan in the Republican Party's platform. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | When Buffett gives away his Berkshire shares, he always converts the Class A voting stock into Class B stock first. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Among candidates in the 2016 race, only Donald Trump is being honest about America's economic decline. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Berkshire does not use consultants or advisory organizations to direct how it votes its shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | In certain countries there are various ways for workers to participate in company governance. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Peter Thiel | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | In Thiel's childhood the great national debate was about defeating the Soviet Union, whereas now the great debate is said to be about who gets to use which bathroom. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Neither Peter Thiel nor Donald Trump is a politician. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Peter Thiel | Factual | 21 Jul 2016 | Peter Thiel builds companies and supports people building new things, from social networks to rocket ships. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Worldwide regulatory approval of self-driving will require on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km) of driving data. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing fleet. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla plans to address most of the consumer vehicle market with the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Adding cars to a Tesla shared fleet will lower the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | Providing solar power has been on Tesla's website for 10 years. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla's fleet learning is currently happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla believes the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport while increasing safety. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | Every Tesla Autopilot release goes through extensive internal validation before reaching any customers. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | The first Tesla master plan, written by Elon Musk 10 years before 2016, is in the final stages of completion. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | With autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink buses and turn bus drivers into fleet managers. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Factual | 20 Jul 2016 | Musk said that starting with step 1 was all he could afford to do with what he made from PayPal. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | When regulators approve true self-driving, Tesla owners will be able to summon their Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | A first-principles physics analysis suggests that a 5 to 10 fold improvement in automotive production is achievable by version 3 of Tesla's factory machine, on a roughly 2-year iteration cycle. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Promise | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | Jun 2016 | In his first blog post on Trump, in June 2016, Sam Altman said it would be a good time for everyone to start speaking up. Sam Altman · Factual · Jun 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | 28 Jan 2016 | In 2015 there was no financial crisis, except perhaps in the energy, commodity and currency markets. Bill Ackman · Factual · 28 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | 28 Jan 2016 | Pershing Square missed the opportunity in 2015 to trim or sell certain positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Factual · 28 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that UNSONG would get fewer hits than Slate Star Codex in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that the US would not get involved in any new major war with a death toll above 100 US soldiers in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Research failed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of each year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will still be at his current job at the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Greece would not announce in 2016 that it was leaving the euro. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Factual | 12 Jan 2016 | The Department of Health and Human Services released a lot of new data the day before (2016-01-11) showing how the ACA helped support entrepreneurs. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Sam Altman | Factual | 12 Jan 2016 | The Affordable Care Act definitely helped a lot of founders start their companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Factual | 12 Jan 2016 | Without the ACA, being a founder would make sense for fewer people. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square bought additional Platform Specialty Products stock at $25 per share to help the company finance an acquisition. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jan 2016 | China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | In 2015 Pershing Square missed opportunities to trim or sell positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square's currency puts have not served as a useful hedge against declines in its portfolio, which fell more than expected given limited China and oil exposure. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | As of early 2016 Pershing Square had made only a modest profit on its yuan and Saudi Riyal hedge investments. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jan 2016 | Near the 2000 peak Grantham challenged audiences, perhaps 2000 professionals in total, to find a bubble that had not fully broken, and he said no one offered one. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square has had limited turnover on its investment team and throughout the firm since its inception. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jan 2016 | In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square continues to hold its yuan and Saudi Riyal currency put investments as of early 2016. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Own records only | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | Jan 2016 | Grantham's 2011 resources report got many multiples of the hits of a typical GMO quarterly letter. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Jan 2016 | Early in 2015 Pershing Square believed the Chinese stock market was in bubble territory but found the cost of buying puts on it prohibitive. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Promise | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square expects to add at least one new investment to its portfolio in the next few months after January 2016. Bill Ackman · Promise · Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
“A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% even if we were to lock in current high P/Es”
Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder January 2016 1Q 2016 GMO Quarterly Letter: Keeping the Faith (GMO via investmentofficer.nl)
A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
The hypothetical lacks a horizon and rests on a counterfactual about locked-in valuations.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in.” (said January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2ce7783f9b7b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2ce7783f9b7b
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.