Claims

Prediction · Economics and markets

“George Gilder's answer to this sort of question is that over time--let's say five to ten years--the Internet will essentially be free.”

Marc Andreessen, Netscape COO, interviewee · June 1995 · Smithsonian Oral and Video Histories: Marc Andreessen (Smithsonian)

George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge at the 2005 horizon (ten years after June 1995): did the Internet become 'essentially free', meaning access and use cost consumers nothing or a negligible amount? Andreessen's attribution of the view to Gilder is context and is not scored. TRUE: by 2005, Internet access and use were generally available to ordinary consumers at no or negligible cost (e.g., free access was the norm, with no meaningful subscription or usage charges). MOSTLY TRUE: free access was widespread and the main way people got online, with paid access a minority exception. MIXED: costs had collapsed in substantial ways (e.g., per-minute and per-bit charges were gone, bandwidth costs had fallen steeply, ad-supported free services dominated content), but consumers still typically paid a non-trivial monthly subscription for access. MOSTLY FALSE: free-access models existed only at the margins (e.g., short-lived free dial-up ISPs), and most users paid meaningful monthly fees. FALSE: Internet access remained a clearly paid service with no meaningful trend toward free access by 2005.

Evidence

1. Part 1. Broadband Adoption in the United States Pew Research Center (Pew Internet & American Life Project) · 28 May 2006

   “For dial-up internet users, there has also been a change in what they pay for service. In December 2005, home dial-up users say their monthly bill for internet service was approximately $18, compared with $23 in February 2004.”

2. Part 1. Broadband Adoption in the United States Pew Research Center (Pew Internet & American Life Project) · 28 May 2006

   “For all types of connections, home broadband users report that they pay an average of $36 per month for their internet service.”

3. Broadband the Bright Spot in Access Market - ClickZ ClickZ (internet.com / Telecommunications Reports International data) · 27 February 2002

   “Most ISPs offering a free service either closed or changed to a fee-based structure during 2001 as it became increasingly clear that the ad-supported model could not bring in the revenues required to make it a viable option.”

4. Dial-Up Remains ISPs Bread and Butter - ClickZ ClickZ (internet.com) · 19 April 2001

   “despite strong forecasted growth in broadband access, most households will still be using dial-up access in the year 2005”

Reasoning

Pew survey data show that in December 2005 home dial-up users paid about $18 a month for internet service (E1), and a 2006 Pew report says home broadband users reported paying an average of $36 a month (E2). Most ISPs offering free, ad-supported service closed or switched to charging fees during 2001 (E3). Some costs did fall, such as dial-up bills dropping from $23 in 2004, but most consumers still paid meaningful monthly fees. This matches the criteria for mostly false, not essentially free.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free.” (said June 1995). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_0ae7f3f27e88, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0ae7f3f27e88