Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

20 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 9 May 2026 About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 17 Mar 2026 Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mixed Jensen Huang Factual Nov 2025 Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Sam Altman Factual 9 Aug 2025 GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 1 Jan 2025 Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 25 Dec 2024 The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 Other
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual Apr 2024 René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 19 Mar 2024 Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Elon Musk Promise 26 Jan 2023 Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual 31 Aug 2022 Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Factual 2022 Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true GiveWell Promise 28 May 2020 In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 12 Dec 2012 Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Science and research methods
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
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Nassim Taleb

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Factual Science and research methods

“Theory is born from (convex) practice more often than the reverse (the nonteleological property).”

Nassim Taleb, essay author 12 December 2012 Understanding Is a Poor Substitute for Convexity (Antifragility) (Edge.org)

Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if history-of-science and technology scholarship broadly supports that practical or technological innovations more often precede the related scientific theory than follow from it. Mostly true if this is supported for most historical periods or domains with notable exceptions (e.g. modern science-driven fields). Mixed if the scholarship is divided or finds roughly balanced directions. Mostly false if the claim generalises from selected examples while the evidence is inconclusive or does not support 'more often'. False if the evidence shows theory-to-practice to be clearly the more common direction.

Evidence

  1. Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023
    “As historians began to examine the history of technology they found little evidence for a strong dependence upon science.”
  2. Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023
    “Historically, the thesis can be maintained that more fundamental advances have been made as a by-product of instrumental (i.e. engineering) improvement than in the direct and conscious search for new laws.”
  3. steam engine Archives - Not Even Past Not Even Past · 1 March 2012
    “Historians of science and technology have often remarked that the steam engine did far more for science than science ever did for the steam engine.”
  4. An analysis of the evolution of science-technology linkage in biomedicine arXiv
    “We find that the cited papers are likely to be basic research, yet a significant portion of papers cited in patents that are related to FDA-approved drugs are clinical research.”

Reasoning

Gaukroger's survey reports that historians of technology found little evidence that technology depended strongly on science (E1). It also cites the view that more fundamental advances came as by-products of instrumental and engineering improvement than from a direct search for laws (E2). A historian's blog adds the common remark that the steam engine did more for science than science did for it (E3). A bibliometric study of biomedicine finds patents citing basic research, a notable exception in modern science-driven fields (E4), which matches the 'mostly true' criterion.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.” (said 12 December 2012). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a5e42d30c1f2, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a5e42d30c1f2

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.