ClaimsNassim Taleb

“Theory is born from (convex) practice more often than the reverse (the nonteleological property).”

Nassim Taleb, essay author 12 December 2012 Understanding Is a Poor Substitute for Convexity (Antifragility) (Edge.org) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if history-of-science and technology scholarship broadly supports that practical or technological innovations more often precede the related scientific theory than follow from it. Mostly true if this is supported for most historical periods or domains with notable exceptions (e.g. modern science-driven fields). Mixed if the scholarship is divided or finds roughly balanced directions. Mostly false if the claim generalises from selected examples while the evidence is inconclusive or does not support 'more often'. False if the evidence shows theory-to-practice to be clearly the more common direction.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023

    “As historians began to examine the history of technology they found little evidence for a strong dependence upon science.”
  2. E2 Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023

    “Historically, the thesis can be maintained that more fundamental advances have been made as a by-product of instrumental (i.e. engineering) improvement than in the direct and conscious search for new laws.”
  3. E3 steam engine Archives - Not Even Past Not Even Past · 1 March 2012

    “Historians of science and technology have often remarked that the steam engine did far more for science than science ever did for the steam engine.”
  4. E4 An analysis of the evolution of science-technology linkage in biomedicine arXiv

    “We find that the cited papers are likely to be basic research, yet a significant portion of papers cited in patents that are related to FDA-approved drugs are clinical research.”

Reasoning

Gaukroger's survey reports that historians of technology found little evidence that technology depended strongly on science (E1). It also cites the view that more fundamental advances came as by-products of instrumental and engineering improvement than from a direct search for laws (E2). A historian's blog adds the common remark that the steam engine did more for science than science did for it (E3). A bibliometric study of biomedicine finds patents citing basic research, a notable exception in modern science-driven fields (E4), which matches the 'mostly true' criterion.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.” (said 12 December 2012). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a5e42d30c1f2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a5e42d30c1f2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mixed Factual 24 September 2025
    “entities grow in a convex way, then slow as they saturate — growth may be unbounded, but remains sub-logarithmic.”

    Entities in biology and economics grow convexly then slow as they saturate; growth may be unbounded but remains sub-logarithmic.

  2. Mixed Factual 24 September 2025
    “the unavoidable conclusion is that cardio problems are at least half genetic.”

    If ancient populations such as hunter-gatherers and Inuit had a high incidence of cardiovascular disease, the unavoidable conclusion is that cardiovascular problems are at least half genetic.

  3. Mixed Factual 19 September 2025
    “scientists that come up with new ideas & frameworks are more often the experienced ones, not the young as we tend to believe.”

    Scientists who come up with new ideas and frameworks are more often experienced researchers than young ones.

  4. Mostly true Factual 2023
    “And if one does not hedge the other, then being "good at”

    If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK.

  5. Mostly true Factual 2023
    “A sum of such bets becomes rapidly”

    A sum of such bets, whose probabilities are modelled with a Uniform or Beta distribution, becomes Gaussian rapidly.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.