| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 9 May 2026 | About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners. Ray Dalio · Factual · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Factual | 17 Mar 2026 | Satya Nadella confirmed that the first Vera Rubin rack is running on Microsoft Azure. Jensen Huang · Factual · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jensen Huang | Factual | Nov 2025 | Cloud GPUs are sold out, as of NVIDIA's third quarter fiscal 2026 results (Nov. 2025). Jensen Huang · Factual · Nov 2025 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Sam Altman | Factual | 9 Aug 2025 | GPT-5 is significantly better than earlier models at healthcare-related queries. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Aug 2025 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 27 Jul 2025 | If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 18 Feb 2025 | The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2025 | Despite further thruster anomalies, Starliner would have landed safely had the crew been aboard when it returned empty in 2024. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2025 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | The war in Ethiopia affecting Yonas's region is over in the immediate sense. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Other |
| Mostly true | Peter Thiel | Factual | Apr 2024 | René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Peter Thiel · Factual · Apr 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 12 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 12 Jun 2023 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Promise | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Elon Musk · Promise · 26 Jan 2023 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Factual | 31 Aug 2022 | Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic trains large-scale generative models and does safety research on those models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Promise | 28 May 2020 | In 2020 GiveWell will complete its review of the New Incentives RCT results and decide whether to direct additional funding to New Incentives. GiveWell · Promise · 28 May 2020 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 1 Jan 2018 | Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 1 Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Nassim Taleb | Factual | 12 Dec 2012 | Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 12 Dec 2012 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 2001 | Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 | Economics and markets |
“Theory is born from (convex) practice more often than the reverse (the nonteleological property).”
Nassim Taleb, essay author 12 December 2012 Understanding Is a Poor Substitute for Convexity (Antifragility) (Edge.org)
Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True if history-of-science and technology scholarship broadly supports that practical or technological innovations more often precede the related scientific theory than follow from it. Mostly true if this is supported for most historical periods or domains with notable exceptions (e.g. modern science-driven fields). Mixed if the scholarship is divided or finds roughly balanced directions. Mostly false if the claim generalises from selected examples while the evidence is inconclusive or does not support 'more often'. False if the evidence shows theory-to-practice to be clearly the more common direction.
Evidence
- Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023
“As historians began to examine the history of technology they found little evidence for a strong dependence upon science.”
- Does science get the credit for too much? Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales (Stephen Gaukroger) · 2023
“Historically, the thesis can be maintained that more fundamental advances have been made as a by-product of instrumental (i.e. engineering) improvement than in the direct and conscious search for new laws.”
- steam engine Archives - Not Even Past Not Even Past · 1 March 2012
“Historians of science and technology have often remarked that the steam engine did far more for science than science ever did for the steam engine.”
- An analysis of the evolution of science-technology linkage in biomedicine arXiv
“We find that the cited papers are likely to be basic research, yet a significant portion of papers cited in patents that are related to FDA-approved drugs are clinical research.”
Reasoning
Gaukroger's survey reports that historians of technology found little evidence that technology depended strongly on science (E1). It also cites the view that more fundamental advances came as by-products of instrumental and engineering improvement than from a direct search for laws (E2). A historian's blog adds the common remark that the steam engine did more for science than science did for it (E3). A bibliometric study of biomedicine finds patents citing basic research, a notable exception in modern science-driven fields (E4), which matches the 'mostly true' criterion.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science.” (said 12 December 2012). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a5e42d30c1f2, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a5e42d30c1f2
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.