ClaimsGiveWell

“As a result, entries that focus on one of the above programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding.”

GiveWell, unsigned organisational page 6 April 2022 GiveWell's Change Our Mind Contest (GiveWell) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A comparative likelihood of influence on allocation is a vague probabilistic judgement with no clear test.

Cite this claim

GiveWell, “Contest entries focused on the six listed programs will likely have a higher chance of meaningfully influencing GiveWell's overall allocation of funding.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fd0f3759b652, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fd0f3759b652

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For GiveWell, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by GiveWell

  1. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2022
    “Due to limited research capacity, we likely won't be able to share a full response to all entries; it's time-consuming for us to write thorough responses, and we aren't sure how many entries we will…”

    GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.